Everyone and their mom is anticipating a shootout between the Detroit Lions and the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. After all, each groups characteristic offenses which are arguably and statistically the most effective within the league. The Lions and Bills are coming off 34- and 42-point performances, respectively.
Why would anybody anticipate in another way on Sunday? Let’s dive into it.
Bold prediction of the week: Lions and Bills have low-scoring slugfest, first to 24 takes the sport
We know each of those groups have high-powered offenses, however what does the remainder of the matchup shake out like? Well, for starters, fairly good defenses. The Bills cross protection and run protection rank eleventh and eighth within the league in DVOA, respectively. The Lions cross and run defenses rank 1st (!) and sixth in DVOA, respectively. You can learn extra about these matchups on this week’s On Paper.
The Lions preserve these defensive rankings despite a carousel of gamers on their protection. After getting into Week 14 already decimated, the Lions watched a number of extra starters head to the sideline all through their Thursday night time matchup towards the Packers. With a mini-bye week since then, although, the Lions are trying as wholesome as we might fairly anticipate. Alim McNeill, D.J. Reader, Josh Paschal, and Levi Onwuzurike have all been cleared from the damage report as of Friday afternoon. That’s an enormous boon to the inside of the line of defense, which shall be tasked to close down James Cook and the Bills’ dashing assault, making Buffalo one-dimensional.
The Bills protection has held their very own towards some very respectable offenses, too. In the final two months, the Bills have held the Seahawks, Chiefs, and 49ers offenses to 10, 21, and 10 factors, respectively. That’s no joke. Their protection stays actually wholesome for this level within the 12 months, they usually’re slated to be down only one starter in Week 15 in Rasul Douglas.
On prime of the robust matchups, I’m betting on the Bills having a little bit of a hangover impact. After watching the Bills put up 42 factors per week in the past, it’s simple to assume they’re going to do the identical to the Lions. But usually instances it’s the other impact. The Bills left all of it on the sector in an exhilarating sport and got here up brief; it’s exhausting to show round and replicate that effort. The Lions, then again, are coming off of a detailed win with three additional days of relaxation and a number of other gamers returning to full well being.
There’s a variety of cause to assume I might be very flawed right here. The Bills, as a workforce, are very wholesome and moved two beginning receivers off the damage report on Friday. They’ve clearly proven they’ll put up factors towards good defenses. Josh Allen is taking part in clear soccer, with no interceptions the final two weeks after throwing 5 within the 4 video games prior. And whereas the Lions’ protection is wholesome relative to final week, they’re nonetheless down a number of of their finest gamers. However Buffalo is coming to city towards a well-rested Lions workforce taking part in at dwelling, and Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has discovered a technique to shut down probably the most formidable of opponents this 12 months regardless of who’s manning his protection.
The Bills haven’t scored lower than 30 factors since early October. The Lions, simply as soon as since September. Here’s to hoping the Lions put up much more than 24 factors. But I might see this being a low-scoring sport, at the very least by the usual of the groups concerned. Sunday, I’m taking whoever will get to 24 first.
