Happy Roki Sasaki Week!
After announcing his intention to come back to MLB in the beginning of the 2024-25 offseason, the 23-year-old Japanese free agent instantly turned essentially the most coveted pitcher obtainable this winter because of his mixture of expertise and age, and the parameters of his contract.
With the 2025 worldwide free agent signing interval opening Jan. 15 and Sasaki’s posting window closing on Jan. 23, we may find out where Sasaki is headed as quickly as Wednesday.
Because Sasaki determined to come back to the majors earlier than his twenty fifth birthday, he’s restricted to a minor league take care of a signing bonus coming from a group’s worldwide bonus pool (capped at simply over $7.5 million). That makes the rising ace a uncommon free agent star each group can afford to signal.
As we anticipate Sasaki’s vacation spot to come back into focus, we requested our MLB specialists what makes him so good, which main league pitchers he reminds us of, and which groups appear most definitely to land him.
What makes Sasaki such a coveted free agent?
Bradford Doolittle: He’s younger, completed and with measurable instruments that may make him baseball’s prime prospect proper now. But he is not a prospect within the “perhaps he’ll be ‘X’ if he reaches his ceiling” however one which’s already been profitable in a high-level league and might slide into a giant league rotation. A restricted workload threshold, for now, is the one factor that is actually holding again Sasaki’s 2025 projection. With his full assortment of group management seasons intact, there is no such thing as a threat to signing him. And nearly as good as he’s now, he has room to develop when it comes to his arsenal and the way he fills out bodily. You simply do not get a mixture of things all lining up like this, not the least of which Sasaki was so anxious to make the leap that he was prepared to make max earnings a secondary issue.
Buster Olney: As we have seen with Yoshinobu Yamamoto and with Juan Soto — as we have witnessed all the way in which again to Alex Rodriguez — excellence at a younger age is every thing. Sasaki is anticipated to be a high-ceiling expertise already at 23, and the group that lands him can have years of management whereas paying him relative pennies.
Kiley McDaniel: In describing his shopper’s upcoming potential nine-figure deal to me this winter, an agent underlined why he was assured that will occur, even when he had a down yr, by saying: “age is a hack.” Rosters are getting youthful, thus groups have extra money to spend, however do not wish to supply long-term offers to older gamers, so they’re (usually) in search of short-term free agent offers or trades for gamers with a yr or two of management. That means long-term offers are usually acceptable to a big swath of groups solely after they can land a standout younger star nonetheless in his peak years. (just like the Red Sox chasing Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Juan Soto, extending Rafael Devers, however not providing enormous cash to any older gamers). Sasaki could possibly be underneath group management for his whole peak of a bona fide ace, at a value each group can afford: a real unicorn of a possibility for all 30 groups.
David Schoenfield: He is coming into his age-23 season and it is not a stretch to say he has the potential to be the most effective starter in baseball. In 4 years in Japan, he has a 2.02 ERA, averaging 11.4 strikeouts per 9. He has hit 102 mph and is 6-foot-3 and athletic. You can argue that he is proper up there on the Stephen Strasburg/Paul Skenes scale as a pitching prospect, besides he has already dominated as knowledgeable.
Which present or former MLB pitcher does he remind you of on the mound?
Schoenfield: With his energy fastball/splitter combo, I consider two former MLB greats: Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling. There are definitely some similarities as properly to Shohei Ohtani, though Ohtani slowly ramped down his splitter utilization and did not use it a lot in 2022-23, going extra usually to his sweeper. In Japan in 2024, Sasaki induced a 57% whiff price on his splitter, which might have ranked second in MLB behind Reds (now Yankees) reliever Fernando Cruz.
Doolittle: I do not know that there’s anybody man. The splitter form of jogs my memory of the one Logan Gilbert throws, one with a spin price so low it is form of freaky to observe in gradual movement. The simple, heavy, exhausting stuff he presents form of jogs my memory of Kevin Brown, solely with a distinct fastball. The factor that is most fun about Sasaki is that it is exhausting to name him the following so-and-so. He’s his personal factor, and novelty is a good and too-rare factor in sports activities today.
McDaniel: There is not an ideal comp, and Sasaki continues to be altering as a pitcher, so I’ll level out some gamers with qualities which might be related. Hunter Greene had an analogous mixture of arm velocity and hype on the identical age, together with some questions on his fastball form and breaking ball high quality. Obviously, Sasaki’s standout splitter has a lot of comps to former NPB pitchers however solely a handful of U.S.-born gamers, resembling Clemens and Schilling. The complete bundle (energy fastball, slider, and splitter-ish offspeed pitch) is much like Paul Skenes’, although Sasaki’s command and fourth and fifth pitch are areas he’ll want to deal with to have an opportunity to actually stand as much as Skenes’ MLB debut.
Buster Olney: He jogs my memory of Yu Darvish, along with his construct and his rangy athleticism. He appears like he’ll have a capability to make changes, as wanted. Darvish is understood for with the ability to mimic the deliveries of different pitchers, and watching Sasaki transfer, it could not shock me if he had the identical present.
Are there any issues about how his sport will translate from Japan to MLB?
McDaniel: Sasaki’s fastball form and velocity regressed final season, his slider velocity additionally tailed off much more, he probably wants so as to add a fourth and perhaps fifth pitch, and his execution throughout the strike zone could possibly be a bit higher. These are all easy sufficient on their very own to be addressed within the first half of 2025 so long as Sasaki chooses a robust pitching improvement membership, as I believe he’ll. Some mechanical changes and psychological cues may do a whole lot of the heavy lifting as these items can all be associated. I might count on to see glimpses of Sasaki’s potential in 2025 whereas we wait till 2026 for the primary dominating string of 5 – 6 begins in a row.
Olney: We actually need our colleague Eduardo Perez to leap in right here, as a result of he’d be the one to inform us if Sasaki has any blatant tells resembling pitch-tipping. That’s what Yamamoto skilled in his first months with the Dodgers. But Sasaki may have such glorious stuff that it would not matter. His splitter appears to be so good that it will not be hit even when the batter is aware of it is coming.
Doolittle: Well, the completely different ball means we do not know precisely how the measurements on his pitches will change, however that is not a significant concern. He seemed nice within the World Baseball Classic which presents a pleasant preview of that adjustment. It’s actually sturdiness. He has by no means thrown a whole lot of innings, his greatest pitch is a splitter and his velo was down final season. These issues could be far more worrisome if he was getting a Yamamoto-like contract, however he is not. I’ve seen his splitter carry an 80-grade and if you match that with a triple-digit fastball that strikes and a observe report of plus command, well being is the one factor there’s to fret about.
Schoenfield: The identical as each starter: Health and sturdiness. He has topped out at 20 begins and 129 innings in Japan, again in 2022. His fastball velocity was down a bit in 2024 as he missed time with a torn indirect and shoulder fatigue. He’ll even have to regulate to dealing with extra energy hitters than he confronted in Japan.
Are the Dodgers the group to beat as his choice approaches?
Doolittle: They at all times are.
McDaniel: They are the most definitely touchdown spot and have been seen that method for some time, however do not underrate how little we actually find out about Sasaki’s strategy of eliminating and in the end selecting a membership. We have some clues and potential leans, however do not actually know very a lot proper now.
Olney: Sure, as a result of they seemingly land each participant they need, with a bottomless pit of cash. The Dodgers would be the group to beat for years on the sector, and off.
Schoenfield: I’ll say no. I’m betting on Sasaki desirous to forge his personal path and signing with a group that does not have already got Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Which different groups do you assume have the most effective likelihood of touchdown him?
McDaniel: The Padres, led by their ultra-aggressive GM A.J. Preller, are perceived because the second-most-likely touchdown spot behind the Dodgers, and San Diego clearly wants Sasaki extra: He would change the outlook for the entire franchise. Beyond that, we’re principally guessing from groups we all know he has met with that appear to have a superb atmosphere for Sasaki to develop and compete in significant video games: the Giants, Mariners, Mets, Yankees, Cubs, and Rangers appear to come back up essentially the most however I am unable to even say that is a whole checklist of groups getting a protracted look.
Doolittle: For me, the Mets stand out. Sasaki and his illustration have been fairly opaque on the subject of providing glimpses of his pondering, which has led to a whole lot of studying between the traces. It’s such a uncommon factor for a participant of this caliber to have the ability to select any group he needs with cash barely being part of the equation. So who is aware of? The Mets supply a superb pitching atmosphere, a robust risk of sustained rivalry and a budding pitching improvement program highlighted by the pitching lab they in-built Port Saint Lucie. Why be one other Dodger?
Olney: It’s fairly evident that Sasaki just isn’t afraid to disregard standard knowledge, in the identical method Ohtani did when he arrived — he handed up many, many tens of tens of millions of {dollars} by pushing to get to the majors now, somewhat than simply ready. With that in thoughts, I feel the Padres would be the most intriguing different to the Dodgers, due to the climate, Darvish’s presence and the prospect to play towards the most effective, in the identical division.
Schoenfield: If Sasaki is primarily involved along with his personal improvement as a pitcher, is there a greater place than Seattle? Unlike the Dodgers, the Mariners have stored their younger starters wholesome. They additionally play in an ideal pitcher’s park, they play on the West Coast and it is not like Seattle would not have an opportunity to win. But we’ve not heard a lot in regards to the Mariners being within the operating.
