News that the civil conflict in Syria had flared up once more got here as no shock to folks in Turkey. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his right-wing nationalist coalition companion Devlet Bahceli have talked about little else than the shift in energy within the Middle East and what the potential adverse penalties of that could possibly be for Turkey for over two months now.
The suggestion has been that regional modifications could possibly be advantageous to Kurds in Syria who’ve managed northeastern Rojava — also called the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) — because the civil conflict started in 2011, a incontrovertible fact that has been a continuing thorn in Ankara’s aspect.
The Turkish authorities can also be involved about one other growth within the area: Syrian President Bashar Assad’s allies Hezbollah and Iran have been weakened after a yr of assaults on Israel; and Assad’s protector Russia is more and more invested in its invasion of Ukraine. Russia nonetheless maintains navy bases in Syria however Istanbul-based safety knowledgeable Burak Yildirim says Moscow solely has 13 fighter jets stationed there now, seven of that are operable, after having 50 there earlier than its conflict of aggression in opposition to Kyiv.
Add to that the truth that the US has stated it desires to reposition itself within the area, too. Though it stays unclear what that will appear to be beneath incoming President Donald Trump. Questions embrace whether or not he’ll withdraw US troopers from Syria and Iraq, and what influence which may have.
A ‘window of alternative’ for Syrian rebels
Syrian rebels acknowledged the scenario as a window of alternative, beginning a serious offensive in opposition to Assad and his troops on November 27. The operation has been successful and noticed them take Syria’s second-largest metropolis, Aleppo, in a matter of days. Now they’re increasing the marketing campaign into different close by cities. The operation is being led by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a regional group previously allied with Al-Qaeda. The US designated HTS a terrorist group in 2018.
Observers say Ankara was very possible knowledgeable of the operation earlier than it commenced. Without Ankara’s acquiesence or probably its assist, there isn’t a approach HTS would stand an opportunity in opposition to Assad, defined Middle East knowledgeable Michael Lüders in an interview with the German public information channel Deutschlandfunk: “Not solely is there little question that Ankara knew in regards to the offensive, it’s also giving navy help. Naturally, the rebels want sufficient weaponry. Looking on the geographic scenario, they’ll solely be getting them from Turkey.”
The northwestern Idlib area from the place the offensive started is in essence hermetically sealed.
Ankara’s goal is to topple the Kurds
When Syria’s civil conflict started, Ankara sided with the rebels, breaking off all diplomatic relations with Damascus. More not too long ago, President Erdogan has tried to revive diplomatic ties however Assad rejected the overture, saying normalization was out of the query till Turkish troops are withdrawn from northern Syria.
But Turkey will not be wiling to withdraw its troops from what it calls a “safety zone” in northern Syria, which Turkey controls with the assistance of the Syrian National Army (SNA), an Islamist militia supported by Ankara.
Turkey’s final purpose is to topple the Kurdish Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, the place the Democratic Union Party (PYD), an offshoot of the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), is in conrol.
At the second, the 2 strongest teams working within the area are HTS and the SNA. The latter, in response to Turkish Middle East knowledgeable Erhan Kelesoglu, instantly began an offensive in opposition to the Kurds as quickly as Aleppo fell.
Ankara denies any involvement in Syria, with Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan saying Turkey would by no means assist actions that would spark one other flood of refugees. Turkey has taken in some 3.5 million Syrian refugees because the conflict started however the temper has begun to bitter because of Turkey’s grave financial disaster. Migration performed an outsized position in Turkey’s latest municipal and parliamentary elections, placing President Erdogan beneath stress to behave. Erdogan has made clear that he want to ship most of these refugees again to Syria. They could be relocated into the buffer zone in northern Syria. Erdogan not too long ago repeated his intention to keep up management of the 30-40 kilometer (19-25 mile) strip.
How a lot management does Ankara have over the SNA?
But would Erdogan be keen to cooperate with jihadis to take action? According to Burak Yildirim, that’s precisely what the Turkish-backed SNA is. Control of the group he says, is within the palms of rebels performing on instructions from Ankara.
“For essentially the most half, operations are working in response to Turkey’s plans,” he stated, noting that there’s at present no infighting among the many insurgents. “HTS and the SNA each wish to see Assad’s downfall,” stated Yildirim, including that they might divide the area amongst themselves.
Since the weekend, the Turkish-allied Islamists have additionally reported success combating the Kurds. The SNA, as an example, claimed to have taken management of the world round Tell Rifaat and they’re planning assaults on different Kurdish cities quickly.
Yet regardless that the Turkish authorities is lending navy assist for the present offensive, it’s making an attempt to keep away from a direct battle with Russia, Iran and the Assad regime, defined Middle East knowledgeable Kelesoglu. But first, he stated, Ankara will wait and see how far its allies can push again the Kurds and the way a lot of their territory they’ll seize.
The Turkish military began main navy operations within the area in 2016, and has been bombarding Kurdish-controlled areas there ever since. Turkish troopers are at present stationed in Jarabulus, al-Bab, A’zaz, Tell Abyad and the insurgent stronghold Idlib.
Organizations just like the NGO Human Rights Watch (HRW) say Ankara is committing conflict crimes in its marketing campaign. In a report launched in March, HRW claimed that Ankara was answerable for kidnappings, plundering, torture and sexual violence. Turkey, it stated, was culpable for heavy assaults and potential conflict crimes, dedicated each by their very own troops in addition to armed native teams working in Turkish-occupied areas of northern Syria.
This article was translated from German by Jon Shelton
