The divisional playoff round for the 2024 NFL season has 4 nice matchups, and now we have you coated with what that you must know. On Saturday, Patrick Mahomes‘ Chiefs tackle C.J. Stroud and the Texans to get issues began. Then the Commanders’ Jayden Daniels tries to remain sizzling in opposition to the Lions. On Sunday, the Rams journey to Philadelphia to face Saquon Barkley and his Eagles. And lastly, it is Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson in Buffalo — a showdown of MVP candidates for an opportunity to go to the AFC Championship Game.
Our NFL Nation reporters deliver us the largest keys to all 4 video games, and analytics author Seth Walder makes a daring prediction for every matchup. NFL analyst Matt Bowen identifies a key matchup X issue to observe, and workers author Kevin Seifert tells us what to know in regards to the officiating. The ESPN Research crew additionally offers an enormous stat to know and a betting nugget for every contest, whereas our Football Power Index (FPI) goes contained in the numbers with a sport projection. Finally, three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Eric Moody and Walder — give us last rating picks for each sport.
Everything you need to know is right here in a single spot that can assist you prepare for a loaded weekend of NFL playoff football. Let’s get into the total divisional slate.
Jump to a matchup:
HOU-KC | WSH-DET
LAR-PHI | BAL-BUF
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ | ESPN BET: KC -8 (41.5 O/U)
Texans storyline to observe: The Texans’ protection sacked quarterback Patrick Mahomes solely as soon as in a Week 16 loss, despite the fact that Houston was tied for fourth in sacks this season (49). This week, the go rush should come alive to provide the Texans an opportunity for the upset. On the flip aspect, Houston’s offense should circulation via working again Joe Mixon — if he performs. Mixon is listed as questionable due to an ankle injury. But the Texans are 7-3 when he averages greater than 4.0 yards per carry and 2-3 when he would not. — DJ Bien-Aime
Chiefs storyline to observe: The Chiefs made their dwelling on third downs through the common season, extending drives 48.5% of the time, which was the second-best charge within the league. But the Texans had among the finest third-down defenses, giving up conversions solely 35.9% of the time. The Chiefs transformed seven of 13 tries (54%) in opposition to the Texans in Week 16, which is a motive they received 27-19. They’ll want that very same success once more. — Adam Teicher
Stat to know: Houston’s C.J. Stroud (23) would be the youngest beginning quarterback to face a defending Super Bowl champion within the postseason. The youngest to win in that scenario was the Panthers’ Kerry Collins (24) in opposition to the Cowboys within the 1996 NFC divisional spherical. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Chiefs edge rusher George Karlaftis will report not less than 1.5 sacks. Karlaftis, who had 8.0 sacks this season, shall be up in opposition to rookie deal with Blake Fisher, who has a below-average go block win charge (85.6%). And he’ll be attempting to chase down Stroud, who has the next than common 8% sack charge. — Walder
Matchup X issue: Texans edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. To upset the Chiefs at Arrowhead, the Texans should disrupt the pocket and velocity up Mahomes’ inside clock. Anderson, who had 11 sacks and 30 pressures this season, could have alternatives to win off the sting in a matchup in opposition to proper deal with Jawaan Taylor. — Bowen
Betting nugget: The Chiefs are 15-2 however are simply 7-10 in opposition to the unfold (ATS). The solely different playoff crew with a shedding report in opposition to the unfold is the Texans, who’re 8-10 ATS after masking within the wild-card spherical. Read more. — ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Clay Martin’s regular-season crew threw 59 flags for offensive holding, tied for many within the NFL. That development must be of explicit observe to the Chiefs, who had been flagged the second-most occasions (29) for offensive holding. The Texans had 22, tied for 14th most. — Seifert
Kahler’s decide: Chiefs 26, Texans 24
Moody’s decide: Chiefs 24, Texans 17
Walder’s decide: Chiefs 23, Texans 13
FPI prediction: Ok.C., 62.7% (by a median of 4.6 factors)
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: DET -9 (55.5 O/U)
Commanders storyline to observe: If Washington desires to beat top-seeded Detroit, it should proceed to have success on key downs offensively and maintain the Lions’ offense on the sideline. The excellent news for the Commanders is rookie Jayden Daniels has the NFL’s finest QBR on third and fourth downs (93.5) with 12 touchdowns to 2 interceptions. He has an ideal 100.0 QBR on fourth down, finishing eight of eight throws for 2 touchdowns and 7 first downs. — John Keim
Lions storyline to observe: Lions working again David Montgomery says he’s excited to return for the divisional spherical after sitting out Detroit’s last three regular-season video games due to an MCL injury. Montgomery says he’s assured within the knee and “would not be on the market if I wasn’t prepared.” In his absence, Detroit’s different RB Jahmyr Gibbs has carried the load, with a career-best 4 touchdowns within the common season finale versus Minnesota. But Gibbs instructed ESPN that he has “missed [Montgomery] for a very long time” and he is “actual excited” for Montgomery’s return. — Eric Woodyard
Stat to know: No crew was higher at racking up yards after the catch (YAC) than the Lions, who led the league in complete YAC (2,669) and on a per reception (6.7) foundation through the common season. The Commanders had been wonderful at limiting YAC, giving up a league-low in complete YAC (1,551) and rating tenth per reception (5.1). — ESPN Research
1:44
McCourty: Commanders going through ‘completely different degree of strain’ vs. Lions
Jason McCourty and the “Get Up” crew focus on how Jayden Daniels can stay up-to-the-minute in a tricky street battle in opposition to the Lions within the NFC divisional spherical.
Bold prediction: Daniels will rush for not less than 100 yards — which shall be solely the second time he hits that mark — in a shedding effort. If the Lions proceed their blitz-heavy method, as they’ve since shedding Aidan Hutchinson (tibia/fibula), Daniels goes to place up numbers on the bottom with some lengthy scrambles. — Walder
Matchup X issue: Lions vast receiver Jameson Williams. Williams had 16 receptions of 20 or extra yards this season, and Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson can set him as much as flip the sphere. Look for the schemed shot performs excessive, plus the in-breaking ideas that create catch-and-run targets for Williams. — Bowen
Injuries: Commanders | Lions
Betting nugget: The Commanders-Lions over/below (55.5) is the very best in a playoff sport since Super Bowl LV between the Buccaneers and Chiefs (56). Read more. — ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Ron Torbert’s regular-season crew averaged 17.1 flags per sport, third most within the NFL. That contains 49 for offensive holding, which was the fourth most of any crew. The Lions tied for the second-fewest holding penalties (14). The Commanders had 21 (sixteenth most). — Seifert
Kahler’s decide: Lions 38, Commanders 30
Moody’s decide: Lions 34, Commanders 24
Walder’s decide: Lions 42, Commanders 28
FPI prediction: DET, 73.0% (by a median of 9.0 factors)
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: PHI -6 (43.5 O/U)
Rams storyline to observe: The Rams’ protection gave up 314 dashing yards to the Eagles in Week 12, together with 255 to working again Saquon Barkley, one thing that has caught with the unit. Of the earlier eight gamers to report 200 or extra dashing yards in opposition to a crew within the common season and meet that crew once more within the playoffs, none ran for greater than 200 yards within the second assembly, per ESPN Research. — Sarah Barshop
Eagles storyline to observe: The Eagles led all groups within the wild-card spherical with 4 takeaways of their stifling 22-10 win over the Packers. Philadelphia ranked thirtieth in turnover margin (minus-6) over the primary 5 weeks of the season. Since coming back from their Week 6 bye, the Eagles are tied for first with the Bills in turnover margin (plus-17). — Tim McManus
Stat to know: The Rams had eight completely different gamers with not less than half a sack of their wild-card win over the Vikings, which was probably the most by any crew in a playoff sport since particular person sacks grew to become official in 1982. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Eagles vast receiver A.J. Brown will report 100-plus receiving yards and a landing after his quiet wild-card weekend (pages read: TBD). Brown’s season has virtually gone below the radar. He recorded 3.3 yards per route run within the common season, the fourth-highest mark by any receiver since 2007 (minimal 200 routes). — Walder
Matchup X issue: Eagles vast receiver DeVonta Smith. I see matchup benefits for Smith as a multilevel goal in Philadelphia’s go sport. Smith might be schemed as an beneath possibility for quarterback Jalen Hurts from slot alignments, whereas additionally testing the perimeter on vertical throws in opposition to a Rams protection that gave up 57 receptions of 20 or extra yards within the common season, tied for fourth most within the league. — Bowen
Betting nugget: The Rams are 4-1 ATS (3-2 straight up) in street playoff video games below coach Sean McVay (since 2018). Los Angeles has averaged 25.4 factors per sport in these contests. Read more. — ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Shawn Smith threw solely three flags for roughing the passer within the common season, tied for the second fewest. His crew was additionally comparatively mild on offensive holding, throwing the sixth fewest flags (33) within the league. The Eagles drew solely 14 offensive holding flags from their opponents, tied for third fewest. — Seifert
Kahler’s decide: Rams 24, Eagles 22
Moody’s decide: Eagles 20, Rams 18
Walder’s decide: Eagles 24, Rams 17
FPI prediction: PHI, 65.4% (by a median of 6.0 factors)
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET | CBS/Paramount+ | ESPN BET: BAL -1 (51.5 O/U)
Ravens storyline to observe: With the chilly and wind in Buffalo, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen might need to depend on their legs — and so they’re one of the best at doing that at this level within the season. Allen has probably the most dashing yards by a quarterback in NFL postseason historical past (609) and Jackson ranks second (602). But it might be tough to run in opposition to the Ravens’ protection, which has given up 239 dashing yards to QBs this season (fifth fewest), and the Bills, who’ve given up 306 dashing yards to QBs (eleventh fewest). — Jamison Hensley
Bills storyline to observe: Can the Bills get out of the divisional spherical for the primary time for the reason that 2020 season? Though a lot of the main focus is on MVP favorites at quarterback, limiting working again Derrick Henry shall be key. The Bills should put up a greater efficiency than they did in a Week 4 loss at Baltimore when Henry ran for 199 yards, probably the most by any participant in opposition to the Bills since Sean McDermott grew to become Buffalo’s coach in 2017. This is a a lot more healthy crew this time round, with beginning linebackers Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano and nickel nook Taron Johnson set to play after sitting out the earlier assembly. But as defensive deal with DaQuan Jones described Henry, “He’s only a freak of nature.” — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: The Bills and Ravens had the identical level differential within the common season (plus-157), which was tied for first within the AFC. This is the seventh matchup in postseason historical past between groups that had the identical regular-season level differential, and the primary since Super Bowl LII between the Eagles and Patriots after the 2017 season. — ESPN Research
1:29
Why Orlovsky is ‘fired up’ for Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen
Dan Orlovsky says each Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are on the prime of their video games heading into the showdown between the Ravens and Bills.
Bold prediction: Jackson will rush not less than 12 occasions for not less than 70 yards. Baltimore confirmed a willingness final week against Pittsburgh to let Jackson run as a lot as wanted in tandem with Henry. I feel that shall be their sport plan for all the postseason. And the Bills have given up 0.45 EPA per quarterback designed run or scramble, larger than the league common. — Walder
Matchup X issue: Bills security Taylor Rapp. His potential to run the alleys and deal with in area is crucial to limiting the explosive play potential of Henry. Including the playoffs, Henry’s 49 rushes of 10 or extra yards are tied for probably the most within the league with Saquon Barkley. The Bills need to get Henry on the bottom when he breaks previous the second degree. — Bowen
Betting nugget: The Bills have been favored in 42 straight residence video games, the longest energetic streak within the NFL. The final time the Bills closed as residence underdogs was in Week 17 of 2020 in opposition to the Dolphins (+3). Read more. — ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Carl Cheffers has led two of the previous 4 Super Bowl crews and is amongst a small group of candidates to reprise that position this yr in New Orleans. Of observe for this sport: Cheffers threw solely two flags through the common season for roughing the passer, the fewest within the NFL. — Seifert
Kahler’s decide: Ravens 28, Bills 25
Moody’s decide: Ravens 30, Bills 23
Walder’s decide: Ravens 31, Bills 27
FPI prediction: BUF, 50.3% (by a median of 0.3 factors)
