Fantasy football is a ardour for a lot of. Sometimes that keenness pushes fantasy managers to make emotional choices even when the information recommend in any other case. Each week in the course of the 2024 NFL season, Liz Loza will try and strike a stability between what the information states and what the guts desires. This is named Facts vs. Feelings.
I’m scripting this week’s column on Christmas Eve, feeling as if I ought to incorporate a Yuletide theme. The truth is, nonetheless, you are most likely going to learn this after December twenty fifth. In which case, I hope that your vacation was merry and vibrant. Whether Santa slid down your chimney, the glow of Hanukkah is lighting up your evenings, or the bemusement of Festivus tickled your counter-culture soul, might the ritual of your selecting have introduced you a snug sufficiency of your favourite issues and folks.
If it did not … nicely, then notes for subsequent yr.
Because we’re already serious about subsequent yr, aren’t we? These remaining few days of 2024 are assured to be full of “spin it ahead” takes and headlines promoting us the “hottest new resolutions” for 2025. Many of us will pen psychological manifestos about counting macros (as a result of slicing carbs pale away with the flip cellphone and trucker hats) and prioritizing probiotics. Others will make public proclamations relating to intentional self-care whereas committing to grabbing these lengthy overdue drinks with that pal who lives throughout city.
It’s all simply wheel-spinning, actually. Not that creating healthful change is frivolous. Or that I’d ever doubt the authenticity of anybody’s private guarantees. Not in any respect. Rather, this particular area of time exists in such a liminal method that we won’t assist however really feel disoriented. I do not need to dodder round in a fugue-like state however straddling the tip of 1 yr whereas not starting the following invitations a discomforting quantity of confusion.
Ripping off strong resolutions and organizing device sheds affords us company. Sitting nonetheless is hard. Distractions typically present us with deep delight. I’m not advocating for both. Though, I’m planning to provide “staying current” a valiant attempt. The idea will not be novel. I’ve hinted at it all through the season. Aiming to dwell within the now when the now’s muddy, nonetheless, requires an accented quantity of self-discipline. And who desires to speak about self-discipline on Dec. 27?
Instead, why do not we simply enable occasions to unfold? Maybe change issues up when new information is found or completely different emotions bubble to the floor? Even if the calendar and the coordinating fantasy soccer season do not indicate an expanse of hours or minutes with which to cull up to date info. Who cares? We nonetheless have one, possibly two extra weeks. And in addition to, if we won’t management our circumstances, let’s not less than deal with how we react to them.
So, do not let the purgatory of this era mess together with your mentals. Ponder what it’s you really need after which try this factor, taking full accountability for any potential penalties. Trust your intestine in late December as a lot as you probably did in early October and as a lot as you’ll in mid-January. Purge your storage with as a lot enthusiasm as a De’Von Achane Stan beginning him at Cleveland. Or languish in cozies on the couch with satisfaction much like that of Bijan Robinson managers coming off of a 3rd multi-TD effort.
The stakes could also be excessive and the time could also be muted, however you stay the captain of your future in fantasy … and life. Now, get on the market and revel in all of it.
Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers: Few gamers have seized an surprising second with as a lot vigor as Purdy. From being beneath middle on the Super Bowl to being unceremoniously eradicated from the postseason 10 months later, the 49ers’ QB has moved by means of a formidable variety of obstacles. And, but, he is battled by means of all the disappointment and continued to provide.
Purdy is at the moment fantasy’s QB12 when it comes to factors per sport, registering practically 17 per contest. That’s down simply 1.5 factors from his 2023 common. Certainly, not dangerous given the variety of offensive stars that made early exits from San Fran’s season. Moreover, Purdy has posted 20 or extra fantasy factors in 4 of his previous seven video games. There had been two single-digit outliers (most notably the ‘snow sport’ versus Buffalo) throughout that span and he tossed an unpleasant INT at Miami in Week 16, however his performances have been of beginning caliber extra occasions than not.
Part of Purdy’s enchantment sneakily exists in his legs. The 24-year-old is QB8 in speeding fantasy factors behind Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Anthony Richardson, Kyler Murray and Bo Nix. More particularly, Purdy is within the second tier of cell QBs, averaging 3.9 fantasy factors per sport from speeding alone. That units up properly versus Detroit, because the Lions’ protection has given up the third-most speeding yards per sport (28.3) to opposing QBs.
Speaking of the Lions’ protection, it’s banged as much as say the least. As the accidents have mounted, so has the opposing offenses’ manufacturing; all three signal-callers which have reached 22 fantasy factors towards the Lions this season have come over the crew’s most up-to-date 4 video games. The unit allowed seven passing scores from Weeks 1-12. That quantity jumped to eight over the most-recent 4 video games. With Purdy taking part in for delight in what’s anticipated to be a relatively close (+3.5) and high-scoring affair (51.5), Mr. Irrelevant is able to make fantasy squads something however.
Alexander Mattison, RB, Las Vegas Raiders: The Raiders’ backfield has been giving EOY vitality since Josh Jacobs left city. Make no mistake; the crew forged Mattison in an understudy function, however with Zamir White (quadriceps) and Sincere McCormick (ankle) each on the IR, the previous Viking figures to obtain prime billing over the following pair of weeks. Even with Ameer Abdullah stumbling right into a resurgence, Mattison discovered the highlight within the passing sport, changing 4 of seven seems to be in Week 16.
The 26-year-old has dealt with lead again duties on 5 events this season, registering not less than 16 touches and averaging 19.5 alternatives over the gathering of video games. His output in these efforts has been of the RB2 selection, as he is managed a stable 13.6 fantasy factors per contest. He figures to publish comparable stats in a plus matchup at New Orleans. The Saints have allowed 17 speeding TDs to RBs, together with a whopping three (to 3 completely different Packers operating backs) this previous Monday night time. Mattison might not have been on early-season bingo playing cards however may very well be a perfectly-timed Band-Aid for facile managers searching for positional depth.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders: Talk about delayed gratification! The unlocking of Scary Terry has been a journey six years within the making. No matter the obstacles or setbacks, McLaurin efforted in direction of ascent. That dedication exists not solely on a macro stage, but additionally from a micro POV. The chemistry between McLaurin and Jayden Daniels did not occur in a single day. At no level, nonetheless, did the duo cease massaging it into existence. Take, for instance, their splits going through Philadelphia. McLaurin transformed simply one in all two balls for 10 yards in Week 11. That quantity improved to a 5-60-1 stat line (price 17 fantasy factors) in Week 16.
The evolution has been equal elements fixed and constant. Currently the digital sport’s WR5 total, McLaurin has posted 15 or extra fantasy factors in 9 of his previous 10 outings and in 11 whole contests over the course of 2024. For context, these 11 video games of 15-plus fantasy factors ranks second-most within the NFL amongst non-QBs. Only Justin Jefferson has extra (12), whereas Ja’Marr Chase and Jahmyr Gibbs are tied with the identical quantity.
The climb figures to proceed in a sport with main postseason implications on Sunday night time. Washington will host a Falcons’ squad miraculously nonetheless within the hunt for the NFC South crown and, with it, a playoff berth. With each offenses firing on all cylinders and Atlanta’s protection permitting the best completion proportion within the NFL (69.8%), McLaurin ought to put forth a commanding show. Additionally working within the wideout’s favor is the truth that the Falcons have allowed a league-high (tied with the Texans) 20 receiving scores to extensive receivers. That’s received to make McLaurin buyers really feel fairly good about their possibilities of victory in Week 17.
Alec Pierce, WR, Indianapolis Colts: No higher option to shut out the yr than with a little bit YOLO. Pierce has introduced the increase (and the bust) all through 2024. Assuming he clears the leagues’ concussion protocol (from a head damage suffered in Week 15), the explosive wideout figures to ship extra of the previous, particularly going through an ultra-generous Giants’ secondary.
Ranking first on the place in deep targets (29), Pierce is averaging an astounding 22.2 yards per reception (WR2). He’s listed second amongst Colts’ pass-catchers in routes run (353) and receiving yards registered (645) whereas main the corps in air yards per goal (21.41) and receiving scores hauled in (tied with Josh Downs for 5).
Pierce’s downfield capability figures to be healthily exploited given the matchup. New York’s protection has given up an absurd 62% completion charge on deep passes, which is by far the worst within the NFL, registering a full 5 factors behind of the down-and-out Jaguars (57%). Interestingly, three of the six receivers who, like Pierce (21.5 yards, WR1), rank inside the highest 20 when it comes to aDOT have every logged season-high fantasy level totals when going through the G-Men: Calvin Austin III (20.4 FPTS, which included a kick return), Amari Cooper (27.6 FPTS), and Rashod Bateman (23.0 FPTS). The timing for Pierce and his managers couldn’t be higher.
Chig Okonkwo, TE, Tennessee Titans: I’m however a humble fantasy analyst, standing earlier than you, and asking you to, as soon as once more, contemplate the underutilized skills of the Titans’ second-most focused pass-catcher. To be honest, it seems as if Mason Rudolph and I share an affinity for the tight finish’s receiving potential. Okonkwo — who has drawn double-digit seems to be in back-to-back efforts — has logged a wholesome goal share of 19% with Rudolph beneath middle versus 11% with Will Levis on the helm. Coincidentally, the Maryland product has additionally skilled a rise in snap share, up from 54% in Weeks 1-8 to 70% since Week 9.
While Rudolph has not been excellent, he has offered the offense with an simple spark. So a lot in order that the Titans are favored (-1) at Jacksonville in Week 17. Of course, a lot of that has to do with the state of the Jaguars’ (briefly aforementioned) protection. Jacksonville has given up the fifth-most fantasy factors to opposing TEs, together with 20.9 to Brock Bowers final Sunday. Chig might not be Brock, however his Week 16 effort (19.1) ranked second-most on the place, behind solely the Raiders rookie. He has a stable shot to flirt with these numbers once more this go-around, reminding managers that late is best than by no means.
Yes, I simply gave you two total paragraphs of Mason Rudolph-adjacent evaluation and not using a single on-the-nose reference. Happy New Year.
Follow Liz on social @LizLoza_FF
