Welcome to the Utilization Report, the place Dwain McFarland highlights his high fantasy soccer takeaways heading into Week 16.
The Top Fantasy Football Takeaways for Week 16
Let’s comply with the info to establish the highest waiver wire choices, commerce targets, upgrades, and downgrades based mostly on what we realized in Week 15.
Note: as you learn via the Utilization Report, you will discover the Utilization Score getting used as a pillar of study. For extra data on easy methods to use the rating and why it is extra predictive than fantasy factors per sport, learn right here.
Upgrades, Downgrades and Emerging Trends
1. The Bills are booming, however the offense is overcrowded.
Josh Allen has reached season-highs in passing yards within the final two video games, with 342 in opposition to the Rams and 362 versus the Lions. The Bills’ passing assault is peaking on the excellent second within the fantasy playoffs. However, with the return of Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid, taking part in time was unfold out greater than ever in Week 15—no go catcher reached 70% route participation.
Khalil Shakir
Shakir continued to steer the crew in goal share (23%) and fantasy factors (15.9), however his four-game streak of 80%-plus route participation ended (64%). In wholesome video games with lower than 80% route participation, Shakir has averaged 13.9 factors with a 5.3 Utilization Score—far decrease than his 6.8 from Week 10 to 14. To create his comp group, I used the center floor.
- Average fantasy factors: 12.4
- WR13 to 24 finishes: 8%
- WR25 to 36 finishes: 40%
- WR37 to 48 finishes: 39%
- WR49 to 60 finishes: 11%
The upside of Buffalo’s passing assault ought to shield Shakir from the underside vary of outcomes right here, however most of his robust comps have been within the WR3 vary relatively than WR2.
Shakir is HOLDING STEADY as a high-end WR3 heading into Week 16.
Amari Cooper
Every week after main the Bills in goal share (38%), Cooper did not register one goal, and his route participation plummeted to a five-game low (42%). The trade-deadline acquisition has but to succeed in a 70% route participation charge in six video games, subduing his Utilization Score to 4.1.
Cooper’s 24% TPRR with the Bills stays respectable, which factors to upside ought to his function ever change, however Buffalo seems dedicated to a rotation for now.
Cooper DOWNGRADES to WR5 bench-stash standing.
Dalton Kincaid
Kincaid (knee) returned from a three-game absence however trailed Dawson Knox in taking part in time with a 58% route participation charge. However, he picked up the place he left off within the goal division with a 33% TPRR.
Prior to his harm, Kincaid reached a 21% TPRR or increased in six straight contests. Hopefully, the route participation will ramp up as he will get more healthy, however Kincaid has reached 80% solely twice this yr. The second-year tight finish would provide important upside with extra taking part in time. For now, he offers low-end to mid-range TE1 upside based mostly on his comps.
- Average fantasy factors: 9.1
- TE7 to 9 finishes: 11%
- TE10 to 12 finishes: 22%
- TE13 to fifteen finishes: 28%
- TE16 to 18 finishes: 22%
Kincaid is HOLDING STEADY as a borderline TE1.
2. Chase Brown has essentially the most potent function in fantasy soccer.
Brown stands on the high of the Utilization Score mountain because the Zack Moss harm. Over his final six video games, he has a 9.6 Utilization Score, averaging 23.3 factors per sport—second behind Saquon Barkley.
Khalil Herbert has but to dent Brown’s workload, leaving the second-year again in full management in Week 15 with a 92% snap share. Brown has reached a 79%-plus snap share in six straight video games and surpassed a 9.0 Utilization Score in 5 of six begins. He has no weak point in his sport, dominating the carries contained in the five-yard line (100%) and the two-minute offense (93%).
Brown represents one of many true rarities in fantasy soccer—an every-down workhorse who additionally resides on a high-quality offense. Brown’s comps have averaged 20 factors per sport, with 85% notching a top-six end.
Brown is a high-end RB1 no matter matchup.
3. Rico Dowdle has entered every-down RB territory.
Over the final three video games, Dowdle has led the Cowboys backfield in snaps (73%), dashing makes an attempt (68%) and route participation (63%). Over that span, he has an 8.1 Utilization Score with 17.1 factors per sport.
While Dowdle has been the No. 1 in Big D for a number of weeks, latest traits level towards much more upside. First, he has dealt with 100% of the dashing makes an attempt contained in the five-yard line and 59% of the short-yardage snaps (SDD) over the past three video games. Second, he has wrestled the two-minute offense away from Hunter Luepke with 63% and 100% snap shares over the past two video games.
Those three developments transfer him from early-down workhorse territory into the every-down-back dialog. Without a gifted challenger, it’s laborious to think about Dowdle shedding his grip on this dominant function—and the comps are spectacular.
- Average fantasy factors: 15.6
- RB1 to six finishes: 8%
- RB7 to 12 finishes: 50%
- RB13 to 18 finishes: 33%
- RB19 to 24 finishes: 8%
Most of Dowdle’s friends (58%) have been RB1s, and those that missed have been mostly high-end RB2s (33%).
Dowdle UPGRADES to borderline RB1 territory.
4. Age is only a quantity to Davante Adams.
Adams will flip 32 in December however hasn’t proven any indicators of decline. Since becoming a member of the Jets, he leads the crew with an 8.7 Utilization Score and 18 fantasy factors per sport. Despite the competitors from a youthful high-end goal earner, Adams has a 30% goal share versus 26% for Garrett Wilson.
While Wilson has remained robust in his personal proper, Adams leads the crew in most Utilization Categories. Over his final 4 video games, Adams ranks second in Utilization Score (9.4), trailing solely Ja’Marr Chase (9.7).
Based on Adams’ 8.7 Utilization Score with the Jets, he has 10 comps in our database. They averaged 17.4 factors per sport and 100% collected a top-12 end, with 30% reaching top-six.
Adams UPGRADES to borderline WR1 standing.
5. Utilization Score Risers
This part will spotlight among the greatest Utilization Score movers over the past 4 video games.
Note: Sometimes, the gamers are the identical because the earlier week, and in these instances, I would spotlight a unique participant to cowl extra gamers. Be positive to take a look at final week’s risers and fallers.
Running Backs
- Isaac Guerendo | 49ers (+1.0): Guerendo solely managed 11.4 fantasy factors in Week 15, however his underlying utilization was wonderful. He posted an 8.1 Utilization Score, bogarting 75% of snaps and 84% of makes an attempt. He was additionally extremely concerned within the passing sport with a 65% route participation, due to dealing with 80% of the two-minute offense snaps. Guerendo appears to be like just like the clear-cut RB1 for the 49ers transferring ahead—he UPGRADES to mid-range RB2 standing and provides RB1 upside.
- James Conner | Cardinals (+0.4): Conner has posted back-to-back season-high Utilization Scores (9.1 and 9.2) on his technique to 22.2 and 30.8 fantasy level outings. The veteran again dealt with his most intensive passing-game function of the season (75% route participation) in Week 15 with Emari Demercado out of motion. Over the final two video games, Conner has accounted for 92% and 100% of the two-minute offense snaps and 100% of the totes contained in the five-yard line. The eighth-year veteran has been a mid-range RB2 for many of the season however picks up low-end RB1 upside in video games with out Demercado.
Wide Receivers
- Adam Thielen | Panthers (+2.0): Thielen posted a semi-dud within the boxscore with 10.1 factors however nonetheless managed a top-36 end. On a constructive observe, his 89% route participation was a season-high, and he led the crew in goal share (27%) for the third consecutive sport. Jalen Coker returned to the lineup however stole work from David Moore (65% route participation) relatively than Thielen. Xavier Legette is week-to-week after struggling a groin harm. Thielen has an 8.7 Utilization Score since returning to the lineup and UPGRADES from high-end WR3 standing to low-end WR2 territory.
- Mike Evans | Buccaneers (+0.9): Evans has an 8.9 Utilization Score in 4 video games with out Chris Godwin, averaging 21.4 factors per sport. Over that stretch, he leads the crew with a 29% goal share, 46% air yards share, and 29% endzone goal share. Additionally, 32% of his targets have come on play motion—price a 26% point-per-route increase based mostly on the final three years of information. Evans is the highest canine on the sixth-best passing offense (258 yards per sport). Evans is HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range WR1 with high-end WR1 upside.
- Brian Thomas | Jaguars (+0.8): Thomas boasts the fifth-highest Utilization Score (9.1) within the NFL since Week 11. Over that span, he has averaged 20.4 fantasy factors per sport (fifth) with a 29% goal share (tenth) and 42% air yards share (eighth). Thomas is taking part in like an alpha with Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Gabe Davis out of the lineup. Thomas UPGRADES to mid-range WR2 standing and provides high-end WR1 upside when Mac Jones performs effectively.
Tight Ends
- Stone Smartt | Chargers (+1.0): With Will Dissly (knee/shoulder) and Hayden Hurst (hip) out, Smartt stepped into the TE1 function for the Chargers. He posted a 7.3 Utilization Score and 10 fantasy factors due to a 19% goal share on a 65% route participation charge. Dissly’s accidents might pressure him to overlook extra time, and Hurst’s timeline is unknown, however he’s eligible to return in Week 16. Smartt will get a TEMPORARY UPGRADE to the high-end TE2 tier if Dissly and Hurst are out.
6. Utilization Score Fallers
Running Backs
- Isiah Pacheco | Chiefs (-2.4): Pacheco regarded like an every-down again over the primary two weeks of the season with an 8.7 Utilization Score. Over that span, he dealt with 74% of the snaps, 74% of makes an attempt, and notched a 63% route participation charge with a 16% goal share. However, Pacheco has but to regain that workload since his return three weeks in the past. Over that stretch, he has a 4.7 Utilization Score with 33%, 48%, and 37% snap shares. For now, Pacheco is embroiled in a three-way committee with Kareem Hunt and Samaje Perine. Pacheco DOWNGRADES to RB4 territory.
Wide Receivers
- Cooper Kupp | Rams (-1.2): Kupp has a 5.7 Utilization Score over the past 4 video games thanks to 2 duds. In Week 13, he notched a 19% goal share with solely 4.7 fantasy factors, and in Week 15, he posted a zero-point dude with a 12% goal share. He stays a must-start in fantasy, however his flooring is considerably decrease than we thought only a month in the past. Kupp DOWNGRADES to mid-range WR2 standing.
Tight Ends
- Cade Otton | Buccaneers (-0.8): Otton has TE25, 27, 10, and 22 finishes because the return of Mike Evans. Over that span, he has a 5.8 Utilization Score, averaging 6.1 factors per sport. He continues to see the sector at a excessive charge (88% route participation), however his targets have fallen dramatically (15%)—Otton DOWNGRADES to the high-end TE2 tier.
7. It’s a Fugazi!!!
A number of gamers pop up weekly within the fantasy boxscore however lack the underlying items to again them up. They are greatest left for the following fantasy supervisor to fret about.
Donnie Brasco: “You ought to give it to someone who does not know any higher as a result of that is a fugazi.”
- Ty Johnson | RB | Bills: Johnson has delivered 13.5 and 17.3 fantasy factors over the past two video games. However, his Utilization Score (4.9) stays in RB4 territory due to a 30% snap share. The veteran again has carried out his harm via the passing sport, with a 12% goal share, however has dealt with solely 5% of the dashing makes an attempt. Johnson is due for detrimental regression and stays an RB4 to RB5 choice.
Waiver Wire Recommendations
8. Waiver choices which can be accessible in most leagues.
Kendre Miller | RB | Saints (89% accessible)
Alvin Kamara suffered a groin harm that might hold him out of Week 16. After Kamara left the sport, Miller took over the backfield, not Jamaal Williams.
Miller versus Williams after the Kamara harm in Week 15:
- Snaps: 88% vs. 12%
- Attempts: 100% vs. 0%
- Routes: 81% vs. 19%
- Targets: 8% vs. 0%
This is a tiny pattern, however the Saints have been reticent about giving Williams touches all season. The Saints’ offense is quarterback-challenged and lacks the weaponry to mount a high-end scoring assault, however Miller is the favourite to steer the crew if Kamara cannot go.
The Saints might be heavy underdogs to the Saints subsequent week however get the Raiders in Week 17.
Miller UPGRADES to low-end RB2 territory with out Kamara.
Jalen McMillan | WR | Buccaneers (92%)
McMillan has been the Bucs’ No. 2 receiving choice with an 82% route participation since their Week 11 bye. The third-round rookie battled accidents early within the season however may very well be on the verge of a breakout.
Over the final two video games, he has a 7.5 Utilization Score, averaging 20.2 factors per sport.
Over that span, he has a 25% goal share and a 29% air yards share—numbers that ought to seize our consideration in among the best passing assaults within the NFL. The vary of outcomes on McMillan is extensive, however 24% of his comps have been WR24s or higher. That makes him price stashing in most codecs.
McMillan is a PRIORITY WAIVER wire goal—he UPGRADES to boom-bust WR4 standing and provides WR2 upside.
Jalen Coker | WR | Panthers (98%)
Coker returned to motion and stepped into a big function with Xavier Legette struggling a groin harm. The undrafted rookie out of Holy Cross posted a 7.5 Utilization Score with 21 fantasy factors due to a busted-coverage 83-yard TD.
While he will not seemingly be rewarded with one other freebie TD this season, Coker completed second on the crew in route participation (84%) and goal share (23%). He has reached a 75% route participation charge or increased in three contests this season—averaging 14.8 factors.
Coker UPGRADES to boom-bust WR4 territory if Legette is out.
Brenton Strange | TE | Jaguars (98%)
With Evan Engram out for the season, Strange stepped into a large function in Week 15, with a 28% goal share. The second-round NFL Draft decide from 2023 completed second on the crew with 11 targets on his technique to a team-leading 9.3 Utilization Score.
While anticipating one other 18.3-point fantasy efficiency within the coming weeks is not practical, we now have seen groups feed tight ends beneath zone protection for a number of weeks when wanted (e.g., Cade Otton). Strange has a draft pedigree, and Jacksonville wants somebody moreover Thomas to step up with Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis additionally out for the yr.
Strange UPGRADES to the borderline TE1 tier.
9. Not accessible in my league, pal!
These gamers aren’t accessible in sicko leagues (I really feel ya), however imagine it or not, many of the Milky Way galaxy does not play in a sicko league. If accessible, please enable us sicko-leaguers to reside vicariously via you and prioritize these choices off the waiver wire.
Jerome Ford | RB | Browns (57%)
Nick Chubb suffered a damaged foot, ending his season and opening the door for Ford to take one other swing on the lead function in Cleveland. In Weeks 1 via 5, Ford was the crew’s high again with a 67% snap share and 52% rush share. Over that span, he posted a 7.4 Utilization Score however averaged solely 11.9 factors in an anemic pre-Jameis Winston offense.
In Week 15, he posted a 6.0 Utilization Score and 18.4 factors, with Chubb solely taking part in 33% of the snaps.
Ford is price a waiver wire declare, however the Browns might transfer to Dorian Thompson-Robinson because the beginning quarterback after one other multi-interception sport from Winston. The crew is not dedicated to having Winston because the starter transferring ahead.
Additionally, we might see D’Onta Foreman and Pierre Strong siphon touches from Ford as we did early within the yr—holding the third-year again beneath 50% of the dashing makes an attempt in three of 5 video games. Having stated that, there may be additionally a runout the place the Browns characteristic Ford and provides Winston one other probability because the starter. If these two issues occur, Ford will shortly climb the ranks.
Ford UPGRADES to borderline RB2 territory however would provide high-end RB2 upside if Winston stays the starter and the Browns decide to Ford on early downs. Cleveland has a positive matchup in opposition to the Bengals in Week 16.
Hollywood Brown | WR | Chiefs (74%)
Brown might return as quickly as Week 16, which makes him price rostering when you’ve got room. We will not belief him in lineups out of the gate, however there’s a probability he performs effectively sufficient that he might turn into an choice in Week 17. Of course, that assumes Patrick Mahomes, who’s week-to-week with a excessive ankle harm, is underneath heart relatively than Carson Wentz.
Brown is a WR5 stash play who might provide WR3 upside in Week 17.
10. Stash performs: persistence and foresight are required.
If you play in a sicko league, listed below are some names which can be extra prone to be accessible. They shouldn’t be sitting on the wire on account of potential worth sooner or later, however they seemingly will not be serving to your fantasy squad subsequent weekend.
Isaiah Davis | RB | Jets (83%)
Braelon Allen left the Week 15 contest with a again harm, leaving Davis because the No. 2 again behind Breece Hall. It was additionally Hall’s first sport again from harm, which stored the utilization shut for the Jets backfield. Davis registered a 39% snap share versus 48% for Hall.
Davis might discover himself in a beginning function if Allen misses time and Hall suffers a setback, which makes him price a stash in deeper codecs.
Davis is a mid-range RB4 if Allen is out and provides contingent RB2 upside ought to one thing occur to Hall. Over the ultimate two weeks of the fantasy season, the Jets have favorable matchups in opposition to the Rams and Bills.
Malik Washington | WR | Dolphins (99%)
Jaylen Waddle is day-to-day after struggling a knee harm that knocked him out of the sport in opposition to the Texans. While Waddle prevented a season-ending blow, his availability for Week 16 is in query.
Washington stepped into Waddle’s function with a 70% route participation and 15% goal share. The Round 6 NFL Draft decide was identified for his yards-after-the-catch (YAC) prowess at Virginia and will shoulder a full workload with Odell Beckham launched final week.
Washington will enter the boom-bust WR4 dialog if Waddle misses time, however the matchup in opposition to the 49ers will not be simple in Week 16.
P.S. Remember to revisit final week’s stash performs for added choices that might nonetheless be in your waiver wire.
More Fantasy Football Takeaways Ahead Of Week 16
Running Back Utilization Bytes
- Brian Robinson: Robinson solely managed 11.7 factors in Week 15, however his underlying utilization was nice. He led the crew in snaps (73%), dashing makes an attempt (59%), and route participation—resulting in a 7.9 Utilization Score regardless of the mediocre fantasy outing. Robinson is HOLDING STEADY within the high-end RB2 tier whereas Austin Ekeler is out (two extra video games).
- Chuba Hubbard: Hubbard disenchanted fantasy managers with solely 8.9 factors in a positive matchup in opposition to Dallas. However, he not often left the sector with a 94% snap share—elite territory. The Panthers offense stays problematic, however Hubbard is HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range to high-end RB2.
- Jaguars RBs: In three video games because the bye, Travis Etienne has led the crew with a 6.6 Utilization Score versus 4.7 for Tank Bigsby. Etienne has led the crew in makes an attempt and routes in two out of three video games. Over that span, he has accounted for 80% of the two-minute offense. Etienne is HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range RB3 whereas Bigsby DOWNGRADES to high-end RB4 standing.
- Jahmyr Gibbs: David Montgomery suffered a season-ending MCL harm, main to an enormous function for Gibbs in opposition to the Bills. Over the final two seasons, Gibbs has reached a 60%-plus snap share 9 instances, averaging 21.7 factors per sport. In these contests, he scored 24-plus fantasy factors 5 instances. Gibbs UPGRADES to high-end RB1 standing and goes to win fantasy leagues.
- Najee Harris: Harris registered season-lows in Utilization Score (3.2) and fantasy factors (3.1) after a pricey fumble in opposition to the Eagles. The former first-round decide has a 6.3 Utilization Score in video games with a wholesome Jaylen Warren this season, and that quantity dips to six.0, together with wholesome Cordarrelle Patterson video games. Since Week 10, Harris has a 51% rush share and 31% route participation, averaging 11.9 factors per sport. Harris DOWNGRADES to borderline RB2 standing; 50% of his comps completed as RB3s.
- Tyjae Spears: Tony Pollard was restricted by an ankle harm in Week 15 in opposition to the Bengals, which opened the door for extra taking part in time for Spears. Over the final two video games, the second-year again has taken cost of the passing-down work, posting 47% and 68% route participation charges. He has taken 100% of the two-minute offense snaps in these two video games. However, his function has remained restricted, with solely 21% and 15% of the makes an attempt. Spears UPGRADES to high-end RB4 territory and provides RB2 upside if Pollard misses time.
- Tyrone Tracy: Tracy notched a 4.5-point dud, however his underlying utilization aligned together with his latest averages. The rookie led the backfield in snaps (67%), makes an attempt (50%), routes (50%), and goal share (12%). Tracy is HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range to low-end RB2.
Wide Receiver Utilization Bytes
- Brandin Cooks: Cooks’ route participation has climbed from 54% to 93% since getting back from harm in Week 13. Over that span, he hasn’t been a below-average goal earner (17% TPRR), however he’s the No. 2 WR in Dallas—Cooks UPGRADES to WR5 standing.
- Browns WRs: Jameis Winston was benched on account of interceptions, and Kevin Stefanski left the door open for a quarterback change. Dorian Thompson-Robinson has thrown for 121 and 165 yards with zero TDs in his two full video games as a starter. He has a profession completion charge of 51%. If Winston leaves the beginning lineup, Jerry Jeudy DOWNGRADES to low-end WR3 territory, Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman DOWNGRADE to WR5 standing, and David Njoku falls to the low-end TE1 tier.
- Calvin Austin: With George Pickens once more, Austin stepped right into a full-time function with a 92% route participation and 28% goal share. The third-year WR tallied a 6.6 Utilization Score with 11.5 fantasy factors. Austin is averaging 10.2 factors over the past 4 video games. Austin will get a brief improve to boom-bust WR4 standing in video games with out Pickens.
- DK Metcalf: Geno Smith left the sport in opposition to Green Bay on account of a knee harm and is present process additional assessments. Metcalf has struggled since his return to the lineup in Week 11, averaging 9.8 factors with a 6.6 Utilization Score. He continues to battle a shoulder harm that may very well be limiting his effectiveness. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has turn into the extra reliable choice with favorable matchups on the within. Metcalf DOWNGRADES to WR3 standing till additional discover.
- Josh Downs: Downs returned to motion from a shoulder harm and performed a full-time function with an 86% route participation. He completed second on the crew with a 23% goal share however could not get a lot going, with solely 38% of his targets graded as catchable by PFF. Downs is without doubt one of the premier younger slot WRs within the NFL, however Anthony Richardson‘s up-and-down nature stays an enormous impediment. Downs is HOLDING STEADY as a boom-bust WR4.
- Romeo Doubs: Doubs returned from a two-game absence (concussion) to steer the Packers’ receiving corps in fantasy factors with 19. In ten wholesome video games, Doubs has reached 17 factors or increased thrice whereas failing to succeed in 10 factors six instances. His Utilization Score (5.8) comps have completed as a WR3 or higher solely 16% of the time, with 42% notching WR4 campaigns. Doubs is HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range WR4.
Tight End Utilization Bytes
- Mark Andrews: Andrews eclipsed a 75% route participation (79%) in a sport with Isaiah Likely for the primary time this season. After a tough begin to the season, Andrews has delivered six top-10 finishes in his final 9 begins. If his Week 15 improve in route participation is the start of a development, we might see fireworks down the stretch. In a full-time function, Andrews would problem for high-end TE1 standing, however for now, he’s HOLDING STEADY as a mid-range TE1 choice.
- Pat Freiermuth: Freiermuth has a 7.7 Utilization Score in two video games with out George Pickens, averaging 12 factors with a 21% goal share. Freiermuth will get a TEMPORARY UPGRADE to low-end TE1 territory till Pickens returns.
