Fantasy Football Week 15 Takeaways: The Biggest Winners and Losers From Week 15

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After an NFL week is over with, fantasy managers are at all times inclined to maneuver on to the subsequent week. They examine the up to date standings, see who’s on bye for his or her staff, and sit up for their subsequent matchup. There is much too little time spent reflecting on what occurred the week prior.

Here, we’ll be looking at 5 of the most important fantasy soccer takeaways from Week 15 of the NFL season. These takeaways can revolve round participant utilization, manufacturing, or anything that’s related to their fantasy soccer outlook. Let’s check out 5 key notes from final week’s 16-game slate.

Amon-Ra St. Brown Goes Nuclear

A subset of the fantasy neighborhood would argue that Amon-Ra St. Brown “has no ceiling” as a result of his function within the slot and primarily shallow targets. After exploding for a 14/193/1 stat line and 37.3 PPR factors final week, St. Brown has proved these doubters fallacious and demonstrated a transparent ceiling.

While his quantity (18 targets, second most of his profession) and manufacturing had been thrilling to see, it was arguably extra intriguing to see the Lions’ offense function in a trailing sport script. The Lions have run 918 performs this yr, 106 of which have come whereas trailing by a number of possessions (9 or extra factors). Out of these 106 performs, 60 got here final week in opposition to the Bills.

This poses the query, what would St. Brown be doing this season in fantasy if the Lions had been taking part in catch-up extra usually? Obviously, drawing within the vary of 18 targets every week isn’t sensible, however there’s a authentic argument that he could possibly be contending with Ja’Marr Chase for the WR1 crown.

Let’s Slow Down With Rico Dowdle

Rico Dowdle has come on in latest weeks to be a greater than serviceable RB2 choice for fantasy managers. Across the final month, Dowdle ranks second in whole speeding yards behind solely Saquon Barkley.

Now, Dowdle has actually taken benefit of some favorable matchups (Giants, Bengals, Panthers), however you continue to have to offer credit score the place credit score is due. Dowdle has seemed nice in these video games and has rightfully earned the RB1 job in Dallas.

However, in relation to the fantasy playoffs, we’ve got to be extremely essential of our lineup selections and weigh matchups fairly closely for fringe starters. Dowdle might have carried your RB2 slot for the final 4 or 5 weeks, nevertheless it’s time to look previous his latest successes and notice he might not be a working again you possibly can depend on within the closing few weeks of the yr.

The Cowboys face off with the Buccaneers and Eagles within the closing two weeks of the fantasy season. Both of those groups have high quality offenses that may choose on the banged-up Dallas protection and push these video games into conditions the place Dallas is compelled to desert the run. If the Cowboys are compelled to tackle a pass-heavy method, it’s not like Dowdle goes to be peppered with targets to make up for the dearth of speeding work; he holds only a 7.5-percent goal share in six video games with Cooper Rush. 

If the Cowboys must play catch-up and might’t give Dowdle 18-20 carries as we’ve seen in latest weeks, don’t be stunned if he falls flat on his face in fantasy.

The Thomas-Jones Connection Sure is Something

I’ve now written about Brian Thomas Jr. on this article for 3 straight weeks and it’s been fully deserved. The rookie is solely balling. After Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis went down with season-ending accidents, I stated it was virtually a weekly expectation for Thomas to attract 25-30 % of the targets. Thomas has exceeded these expectations, cracking a 30-percent goal share in two consecutive weeks.

Week 15 marked the perfect outing of Thomas’s younger profession, racking up 32.5 fantasy factors on a ten/105/2 stat line and a career-high 14 targets. This got here in a string of very stable performances; Thomas is the per-game WR9 throughout the final 5 weeks.

The better part is that Thomas may arguably be producing at the next stage in these video games. Thomas got here into the league often called a burner who may beat defenders deep; this downfield capability is what sometimes permits him to achieve his ceiling in any given week. 

Well, with Mac Jones below heart, the downfield passing sport in Jacksonville has fairly actually been nonexistent. Jones has tried 18 deep passes (makes an attempt 20-plus yards downfield) this season, finishing zero of them whereas throwing 5 interceptions. Given how profitable Thomas has been in latest weeks with Jones, it’s wild to suppose what we’d be seeing if this duo may merely join on a deep ball or two. For now, Thomas goes to must depend on his personal playmaking capability with the ball in his arms to generate explosive performs.

James Conner: 2024 League Winner

Following an harm to David Montgomery, individuals are able to crown Jahmyr Gibbs as a league winner. Fair sufficient, however I see your Gibbs and lift you one James Conner. The Cardinals’ lead again has been carrying fantasy groups for the final 5 weeks and is primed to do exactly that within the closing weeks of the fantasy season.

Conner has been seeing a wholesome workload as of late, averaging 16.7 weighted alternatives throughout his final 5 contests, which ranks ninth amongst RBs throughout this stretch. Much of this utilization is being carried by receiving work – Conner is averaging 4.6 targets per sport since Week 10.

A voluminous workload is one factor, however Conner is definitely being productive along with his touches. He’s posted 19.3 PPR factors per sport in his final 5 contests, coming in because the per-game RB6. But issues may get even higher for Conner within the closing two video games of the fantasy season. 

First off, accidents have left the Arizona backfield fully depleted. Emari Demercado is on IR and Trey Benson suffered an ankle harm final week. These accidents have led to Conner taking part in a minimum of 70 % of the snaps in every of the final two weeks. He’ll possible proceed on this development so long as Benson is sidelined. 

In Week 16, a matchup with the Panthers factors to Conner completely dominating in a bell cow function. Carolina leads the league in fantasy factors allowed to working backs and ranks on the backside of the barrel in most speeding effectivity metrics. Week 17 presents a matchup with the Rams and their No. 28 run protection. Conner taking part in just about each snap in opposition to these defenses ought to have fantasy managers foaming on the mouth.

Caleb Williams Continues With His Jekyll and Hyde Rookie Year

Caleb Williams entered the NFL because the no-brainer No. 1 choose within the eyes of most followers and draft analysts. He’s proven flashes of why he deserved to be taken general; Williams’ capability to increase performs and maneuver within the pocket will be fairly particular at occasions.

The challenge is that Williams is having a tough time balancing when he ought to look to increase performs vs. when he ought to take the check-down or do away with the ball. This has resulted in an inordinately excessive variety of sacks. Williams is on tempo to take 70.4 sacks this season, which might be simply the third time a quarterback has taken 70 sacks in a single season.

Some of those struggles will be pinned on the offensive line; Williams has been below stress on 37.9 % of his dropbacks, the sixth-highest charge within the NFL. The most regarding half is the speed at which these pressures are turning into sacks. Williams’ stress to sack ratio is available in at 29.8 %, a startlingly excessive quantity. Will Levis is the one quarterback taking sacks at the next charge this season.

Williams has an interesting matchup in opposition to a banged-up Detroit protection this week, however within the grand scheme of issues, there are some obvious points along with his pocket presence.