Three wild-card games from the NFL playoffs are completed, and the divisional-round matchups for the AFC groups are formally set. The Baltimore Ravens will journey to play the Buffalo Bills subsequent weekend, whereas the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Houston Texans.
To look forward at those matchups, we requested our NFL Nation reporters to pick one factor we realized concerning the groups they cowl through the wild-card spherical. (For the Chiefs, who did not play this week, we requested Adam Teicher to offer an harm replace.) Seth Walder additionally explored how every group can win to advance to the convention championships, and we offered opening traces from ESPN BET.
Let’s begin with the No. 1-seeded Chiefs’ assembly with the Texans. And examine again because the NFC divisional matchups are solidified; we will even preview these video games.
Jump to a matchup:
HOU-KC | BAL-BUF
AFC
Opening line: KC -8 (42.5)
Matchup background: The Chiefs and Texans confronted off in Week 16, with Kansas City defeating Houston 27-19. The final playoff assembly between these two franchises was within the 2019 wild-card round, when the Chiefs erased a 24-0 second-quarter deficit to storm previous Houston 51-31. Kansas City went on to win the Super Bowl that season. — ESPN
Chiefs harm replace: The Chiefs ought to have all their starters and key position gamers on their lively roster out there for the divisional spherical. That contains defensive deal with Chris Jones, who hasn’t performed since Week 15 due to a strained calf muscle. Running again Isiah Pacheco and offensive deal with Jawaan Taylor have additionally just lately missed time due to accidents however must be able to roll. Starting cornerback Jaylen Watson, who has been on injured reserve since breaking his ankle in Week 7 in opposition to the 49ers, has additionally been training and might be activated. — Adam Teicher
What we realized concerning the Texans within the wild-card spherical: After an up-and-down common season, the Texans obtained stellar contributions from all three phases within the win over the Chargers. Quarterback C.J. Stroud threw for 282 passing yards, and operating again Joe Mixon tallied 106 yards and a landing. The protection intercepted Justin Herbert 4 instances, resulting in the third-worst Total QBR of his profession as a starter (13.0). Cornerback D’Angelo Ross additionally blocked a punt earlier than returning a blocked additional level for a rating. — DJ Bien-Aime
Why the Chiefs will win: Well, the most important motive why the Chiefs will win is as a result of they’re enjoying the Texans. Houston, regardless of advancing to the divisional spherical, has not been a persistently efficient offensive group since shedding Stefon Diggs (knee) in Week 8. From Week 9 on, the Texans rank twenty seventh in EPA per play on offense — together with destructive EPA per play on each dropbacks and designed runs in opposition to the Chargers.
Of course, the Chiefs carry greater than their fair proportion of strengths, too, beginning with quarterback Patrick Mahomes however not ending with him. Earlier this season, one might have a look at the Chiefs and determine they had been lacking playmaking receivers. But right now it is a completely different story: Kansas City traded for DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown returned from harm and Xavier Worthy has proven progress late within the season. Plus, it is no less than attainable tight finish Travis Kelce has merely been saving his power for the postseason. Add that offense to a protection that also boasts some elite abilities in Jones and Trent McDuffie, and Kansas City is a formidable opponent for any playoff group, not to mention the Texans. — Walder
Why the Texans will win: Their move rush. As ugly because the Texans’ offense was for a lot of the season — and albeit, it wasn’t nice of their win over the Chargers — their move rush all the time provides them an opportunity. Danielle Hunter led the NFL with a 26% move rush win price within the common season, and he and Will Anderson Jr. had been each over 25% within the class Saturday. (Denico Autry was at 21% and delivered a sack, too.) Those edge rushers in opposition to the Chiefs’ tackles represents one place the place the Texans — who’re deserved underdogs — can have a transparent benefit over Kansas City.
The back-end of the protection issues, too. Cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. had an amazing common season and snagged two picks in opposition to Los Angeles. But do not sleep on CB Kamari Lassiter, who did not permit a single reception as the closest defender, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and in addition had a choose. — Walder
Opening line: BUF -1 (51.5)
Matchup background: The Ravens and Bills confronted off in Week 4, with Baltimore handing Buffalo a 35-10 loss — the third-worst level margin of quarterback Josh Allen‘s profession. Lamar Jackson and Allen have solely performed one another as soon as within the playoffs, and Allen holds the benefit. Buffalo beat Baltimore 17-3 within the 2020 divisional round. — ESPN
What we realized concerning the Bills within the wild-card spherical: This Bills group might need not peaked but. Coming into the sport against the Broncos, cornerback Rasul Douglas stated the Bills nonetheless had not performed their finest, and the opening efficiency within the playoffs confirmed he may be proper. Allen led Buffalo to attain 31 unanswered factors, and the protection restricted the Broncos to 2-of-9 on third down regardless of not forcing a takeaway, one of many unit’s strengths. — Alaina Getzenberg
What we realized concerning the Ravens within the wild-card round: Jackson has confirmed he can have early postseason success. In profitable his previous three playoff openers, he has recorded a Total QBR over 80, accomplished 70% of his move makes an attempt and thrown 4 landing passes to 1 interception. The problem for Jackson has been the encore. In every of the previous two playoffs, he has adopted up a victory with a loss, producing a 44 QBR, 56% completion price and one landing throw to 2 interceptions. — Jamison Hensley
Why the Bills will win: Josh Allen. Forgive the obviousness, nevertheless it’s simply the fact. It’s fourth-and-short? Allen can ship along with his legs and barrel by means of a protection for a conversion. Third-and-long? He can unleash an absurd move like his outrageous touchdown throw to Ty Johnson within the wild-card spherical (that really got here on fourth-and-1, however you get the image). And he does all that whereas being one of the best within the NFL at limiting errors. He had the bottom sack price (2.6%) and ranked second in turnover price (1.2%) by means of the common season.
And the truth that he performs behind an offensive line that ranked third in move block win price within the common season — and allowed solely two sacks in opposition to an amazing Denver protection — actually helps. As does the help Allen receives from his operating backs. No group generated extra EPA on operating again targets than Buffalo.
The Ravens might be with out high vast receiver Zay Flowers (knee) once more, and that is actually a degree in Buffalo’s favor in that case. Though Baltimore has proven it’s able to profitable on the bottom, the Bills’ protection was higher in opposition to the run within the common season (eighth in EPA per play in opposition to designed runs) than the move (twentieth in opposition to dropbacks). They did battle in opposition to scrambles, which will likely be a difficulty going through Jackson. So the Bills are probably going to wish loads of factors to beat Baltimore — with or with out Flowers. — Walder
Why the Ravens will win: Their operating assault borders on unstoppable. Baltimore confirmed it will not maintain again from utilizing Jackson’s legs within the postseason — he ran 14 instances within the Ravens’ win over the Steelers (kneels excluded) — and the mix of him and operating again Derrick Henry makes life brutal for defenses. Read performs within the wild-card spherical had been extremely efficient, as Steelers defenders had been pressured to account for each Jackson and Henry, leading to fewer gamers within the path of the particular ball provider.
To beat the Bills, nevertheless, it’ll require a strong effort on either side of the ball. Fortunately, that is not a difficulty for the Ravens. Since they moved Kyle Hamilton again to primarily deep security in Week 11, Baltimore ranks first in EPA allowed per play on protection, postseason included. That’s higher than the Broncos, whom the Bills simply beat. — Walder
