From Assad’s Backer to His Sanctuary, Russia Has Been Humiliated

The Syrian individuals achieved what as soon as appeared inconceivable. They rid themselves of the brutal dictator who massacred tons of of 1000’s in one of the crucial repressive states. Bashar al-Assad, notorious for his chemical assaults, conflict crimes, and alliances with Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah in his violent crackdown, fled to Russia as his regime crumbled. 

This marked a monumental achievement for Syrians, whose resilience matched their relentless opposition to a brutal regime propped up for over a decade by overseas powers. Chief amongst them is Russia. 

Syrian rebels seized Damascus unopposed after a lightning advance via the nation, forcing Assad to hunt asylum in Russia after a 13-year battle and 6 a long time of his household’s autocratic rule. Assad now joins treasonous former Ukrainian president Yanukovych, one other pro-Kremlin chief who fled to Russia.

For Russia, the autumn of Assad is humiliating and a extreme blow to its world picture after Moscow spent over a decade holding him in energy. But regardless of its guarantees of unwavering help, Russia in the end failed to forestall Assad’s collapse — a stark reflection of its very restricted assets. 

There can also be the query of how Russia’s navy and intelligence missed indicators that insurgent forces had been making ready an offensive. This failure allowed opposition fighters to overrun key territories, catching Assad’s regime and Moscow off guard. Rumors of the dismissal of Lieutenant General Sergey Kisel, who was accountable for Moscow’s operations in Syria, spotlight rising discontent inside Russia’s management, elevating questions on its competence and signaling potential upheaval within the wake of its strategic failures in Syria.

Russia formally entered the Syrian battle in 2015, launching airstrikes that focused not solely opposition teams but in addition civilian housing, faculties, hospitals, and humanitarian corridors. For over a decade, Russia’s brutal ways, together with carpet bombing cities, mirrored the technique it later utilized in its 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Yet, regardless of Moscow projecting ‘energy’, it was unable to cease the downfall of Assad’s regime.

Meanwhile, Russia granted Assad and his household asylum to strengthen its picture as a loyal ally to authoritarian regimes, even within the face of their collapse. By publicly asserting the asylum, Moscow aimed to sign that it stays a dependable accomplice whereas managing the fallout from Assad’s downfall. Russia’s ambassador to Vienna acknowledged as such on X: “#Assad and his household are in Moscow. Russia doesn’t betray its mates in troublesome conditions. This is the distinction between #Russia and the #US.” This choice adopted criticism and outright anger from Russian navy bloggers, who criticized the collapse of the Syrian military as a failure of management and corruption by the regime.

Russia’s involvement prolonged far past navy backing and collaboration with Hezbollah and Iranian-backed militias. The Kremlin’s willingness to work with these teams — usually utilizing terrorist ways — grew to become a trademark of its overseas coverage. Russia arrange joint management facilities and shared intelligence, additional embedding itself within the nation. In addition to its navy help, Russia supported Assad’s regime after it was accused of utilizing poison fuel and chemical weapons, systematically focusing on civilians, committing conflict crimes, and leaving mass graves scattered throughout Syria. Russia additionally deployed mercenaries, together with the notorious Wagner Group, who had been chargeable for committing horrific atrocities towards civilians.

To obscure Assad’s atrocities, Russia waged an aggressive disinformation marketing campaign, framing the battle as an inner conflict pushed by opposition forces quite than the regime’s brutality. This effort aimed to confuse the worldwide neighborhood and obscure the true nature of the violence, making it more durable to garner overseas help for the opposition. By labeling the opposition as “terrorists,” Russia falsely shifted blame for the violence, mass killings, and chemical assaults onto them, offering cowl for Assad’s conflict crimes. This marketing campaign not solely protected the regime but in addition endangered opposition and humanitarian teams by searching for to undermine their credibility whereas hundreds of thousands of Syrians suffered. 

Russia’s mass propaganda was significantly efficient in portraying the civil conflict as a fancy inner dispute, very like the disinformation it unfold in Ukraine after its unlawful 2014 annexation of Crimea and occupation of Donbas. By framing the battle as a rise up, Russian disinformation confused the worldwide neighborhood and prevented an applicable response. Media shops, usually unknowingly, repeated these false narratives, additional distorting the fact of the scenario.

After the sudden fall of Assad’s regime, studies emerged of Moscow scrambling to withdraw its navy belongings from Syria, together with transferring naval ships out of Tartus. If true, claims that Russia sought Turkey’s help to make sure the secure evacuation of its forces added an additional layer of embarrassment for the Kremlin. Tartus, as soon as a essential hub for projecting Russian energy within the area, now symbolizes Moscow’s failure to maintain its foothold, casting doubt on its future affect within the Middle East.

Desperate to salvage a few of its investments, Russia reportedly engaged in frantic negotiations with Syria’s new authorities to retain entry to its remaining bases. However, with the shifting political panorama in Damascus, any agreements made had been precarious at greatest. The very notion of Russia, a supposed superpower, counting on a NATO member like Turkey to extract its navy underscored its weakened place and deepened its humiliation on the worldwide stage.

The collapse of Assad’s regime and the potential lack of Russia’s navy bases in Syria current vital challenges to Moscow’s skill to hold out operations and preserve affect in each the Middle East and Africa. Khmeimim airbase has been a essential hub for Russia, enabling the provision of mercenaries, provides, and gear to African international locations, such because the Central African Republic and Mali. The lack of Russia’s bases would severely disrupt Russia’s mercenary rotations, resupply operations, and broader affect throughout sub-Saharan Africa. 

Moreover, the diminishing of its navy presence in Syria undermines Russia’s regional authority, weakening its position in Middle Eastern energy dynamics and exposing the fragility of its overstretched world ambitions.

The lack of Assad, Russia’s vital ally within the Middle East, has dealt a extreme blow to Moscow. It not solely shattered Russia’s ambitions for regional dominance but in addition delivered a psychological setback to Putin, whose status for unwavering loyalty to authoritarian companions now seems tarnished. The collapse of Russia’s technique in Syria raises broader questions on its skill to keep up affect in different areas, significantly as its assets are more and more stretched skinny by its ongoing full-scale conflict in Ukraine.

Russia, a repressive regime, has lengthy supported different authoritarian governments, however this technique carries inherent dangers. As Assad’s abrupt downfall this previous weekend demonstrated, authoritarian regimes can collapse immediately and with little warning, making this a basically flawed long-term geopolitical technique.