The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks and predictions for Week 15 of the NFL season.
Sunday
BROWNS +4 over Chiefs
The superior stats hate Kansas City and dislike this matchup for it. Jameis Winston and the Browns have a stable offense coming collectively that would see some success, because the Chiefs protection is backside 5 within the NFL towards the deep go.
Okay.C. permits a 53.3 p.c completion price towards deep passes, the fourth-worst mark within the NFL — forward of simply the Giants (60 p.c), Panthers (54.8), and Packers (53.8).
Winston is a deep-ball aficionado, so count on loads of exams towards a comfortable secondary.
Moreover, Cleveland’s protection nonetheless has the third-best go rush, in line with PFF.
The Chiefs are getting away with a lot proper now that it’s too troublesome to again them. Cleveland wins outright.
GIANTS +16 over Ravens
At 16 factors, that is the largest unfold within the NFL this yr, however perhaps it’s one other Tommy Cutlets showcase. Now, nobody is anticipating an upset win, and the Giants in all probability don’t even need one.
But Malik Nabers and Tyrone Tracy Jr. have sufficient expertise to maintain this inside two scores. Their protection — sans Dexter Lawrence — is taking part in laborious and effectively.
The unit is rated No. 12 in line with Pro Football focus.
Jets -3.5 over JAGUARS
This is the place I draw the road on disrespect of the Jets.
Much like each week, Gang Green ought to’ve gained final week towards a playoff-level workforce. The similar can’t be stated in regards to the Jaguars, who’re beginning Mac Jones at quarterback and have the league’s worst protection in line with defense-adjusted worth over common (DVOA).
The Jets lastly snag a win and canopy this one simply.
The Aaron Rodgers disrespect is getting out of whack, and now you can lastly purchase a dip on the Jets.
TITANS +5 over Bengals
At some level, the books have to determine the Titans, proper?
Tennessee is the league’s worst workforce with a painfully unhealthy 2-11 mark towards the unfold, in some way worse than their general 3-10 report.
In idea, this matchup stacks up fairly effectively towards the Bengals: The Titans have the Fifteenth-best protection in line with DVOA and the Thirty first-rated offense.
That would equal out in idea, because the Bengals have the league’s second-worst protection, in line with DVOA.
It’s not like their protection is enhancing, both, permitting 6.8 yards per play of their previous three video games, by far the worst determine within the NFL.
They made Cooper Rush look competent final week in a recreation they simply may’ve misplaced.
Commanders -7.5 over SAINTS
Marshon Lattimore makes his Commanders debut towards his former workforce.
New Orleans begins Jake Haener at quarterback, which needs to be a nightmare, they usually have the second-worst run protection, in line with DVOA.
How the Saints hold this shut is hard to examine. Jayden Daniels runs wild.
Cowboys +3 over PANTHERS
There’s nonetheless sufficient right here in Dallas that they shouldn’t be underdogs to the Panthers.
CeeDee Lamb, Rico Dowdle and Micah Parsons are all blue-chip gamers who’re value betting on as underdogs on this recreation.
Carolina has the league’s 32-ranked dashing protection (DVOA) and is permitting 5 yards per carry, probably the most within the NFL.
TEXANS -3 over Dolphins
Miami isn’t what it was once, and this matchup is an excessive amount of for them.
The Dolphins are a workforce constructed round quick passing with their speedy receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
The Texans love coping with quick passing offenses. They permit the bottom completion proportion is within the NFL on quick passes (fewer than 7 air yards).
Miami throws the fifth-most quick passes within the NFL since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the offense.
Houston additionally grabs the second-most interceptions on quick passes, so search for Tagovailoa to wrestle a bit on this one.
BRONCOS -4 over Colts
The finest offensive line within the NFL is the Broncos.
They have the No. 1 go block win price (70 p.c).
Indianapolis doesn’t possess the expertise on both facet of the ball to win or cowl this recreation at Mile High.
Indianapolis has the Twenty second-rated offense on DVOA. Don’t waste your cash on the Colts, unfold it on Denver.
LIONS -2.5 over Bills
The marquee recreation of the week comes up for the Bills in enemy territory.
Both groups have aspirations to make the Super Bowl however have proven some kinks of their armor.
The higher offensive line and protection ought to take this one house, as Detroit performs ball management on the Bills.
Eventually, somebody apart from Josh Allen should win.
Steelers +5 over EAGLES
Philadelphia is in full disarray behind the scenes regardless of the on-field product being good on the sphere.
The in-state rivalry recreation shall be hotly contested and hard-hitting, which performs effectively into the Steelers’ system.
They don’t have to get into a diffusion offense matchup that the Eagles thrive in (the league’s best-passing protection per PFF).
They needs to be content material getting right into a slugfest and making no errors to get a victory.
Patriots +6 over CARDINALS
Jerod Mayo might be teaching for his job on this one, particularly taking a look at a troublesome end-of-season schedule.
New England has been enhancing defensively — they’ve the seventh-best YPC allowed determine within the NFL (3.9).
Their offense, which has struggled this yr (second-worst yards per play within the NFL, 4.7) is enhancing with 5.4 YPP of their previous three.
The Patriots are permitting the fourth-fewest yards per carry to opposing QBs as effectively, so don’t count on Kyler Murray to run wild this weekend both.
CHARGERS -3 over Buccaneers
Both groups are badly injured, however that is the place coaches earn their hold. Jim Harbaugh ought to’ve and almost did beat the Chiefs final week with out playmakers J.Okay. Dobbins and Ladd McConkey.
Neither look like trending in a very good path this week, however don’t fret.
The Buccaneers are probably with out RB Bucky Irving this week as effectively. Back the higher protection, because the Chargers have the seventh-best protection in yards per play allowed and DVOA.
Packers -2.5 over SEAHAWKS
Seattle has had a troublesome time operating the ball this season, however their passing offense has grow to be among the many league’s finest because of the Jaxon Smith-Njigba emergence.
The Packers’ accidents have gotten worrisome, and the matchup isn’t best right here, both.
Their 7 yards per go try allowed is within the backside half of the league and worsening by the week, and Seattle’s protection is definitely graded higher when it comes to DVOA for the season.
Betting on the NFL?
Monday
BEARS +7 over Vikings
It by no means is straightforward to again a workforce that was embarrassed of their interim coach’s debut recreation.
But rookie QB Caleb Williams needs to be as much as the duty as they face a troublesome Minnesota protection on the street.
In the primary matchup, a recreation the Bears ought to’ve gained, Williams threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns. Seven factors is simply too many right here.
Falcons -4 over RAIDERS
Another time to attract the road within the sand.
It’s all about perceived regression from Kirk Cousins — and it is likely to be actual regression at this level.
Regardless, there isn’t a single place the place the Raiders are higher than the Falcons, who’ve third-best offense per PFF.
That matches up with Desmond Ridder, who was the worst quarterback within the NFL final season, in line with PFF. Sell the revenge recreation issue and guess the Falcons, who nonetheless have lots to play for.
Last week: 6-5-1
Season: 92-97-2
