Within hours of Syrian rebels getting into Damascus Sunday, President Joe Biden was on nationwide tv laying out preemptive army actions and pledging continued U.S. engagement in Syria. The fall of the Assad regime is “a second of threat and uncertainty,” he mentioned, pledging the U.S. would “work with our companions in Syria” and “stay vigilant.”
Indeed, for a lot of regional observers, this second presents quite a few alternatives not imagined even per week in the past, together with, most ambitiously, containing Iran’s nuclear program. But the U.S. will solely be capable of exploit these alternatives with hands-on engagement, diplomats say.
Why We Wrote This
A narrative centered on
The fall of Syria’s autocratic chief Bashar al-Assad has created challenges and alternatives for the United States. But the dissonance between the present and future U.S. administrations is complicated main gamers within the Middle East.
That view contrasts sharply with the method trumpeted by President-elect Donald Trump. “THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT,” he wrote on social media, referring to Syria.
The U.S. has already carried out dozens of strikes towards weapons websites in Syria, but U.S. allies and adversaries alike could surprise if a final flourish of motion by Mr. Biden can be adopted by an inward flip by the Trump White House.
John Hannah, who served each Democratic and Republican administrations, says, “We’re on this odd state of affairs the place it’s not precisely clear what U.S. coverage is at a time of great flux and alternatives.”
Within hours of Syrian rebels getting into Damascus Sunday and forcing autocratic chief Bashar al-Assad into exile, President Joe Biden was on nationwide tv laying out preemptive army actions and pledging continued U.S. engagement as Syrians chart a brand new path ahead.
The fall of the Assad regime “is a second of historic alternative for the long-suffering folks of Syria,” Mr. Biden mentioned. Adding that it’s “additionally a second of threat and uncertainty,” he pledged the U.S. would “work with our companions in Syria” and “stay vigilant.”
The president mentioned the roughly 900 U.S. troops in jap Syria tasked with stopping a resurgence of the Islamic State (ISIS), will stay on the bottom, assuring that the vacuum of energy didn’t open the door to new types of Islamist extremism.
Why We Wrote This
A narrative centered on
The fall of Syria’s autocratic chief Bashar al-Assad has created challenges and alternatives for the United States. But the dissonance between the present and future U.S. administrations is complicated main gamers within the Middle East.
Then Tuesday John Kirby, the White House nationwide safety communications adviser, introduced that President Biden was dispatching nationwide safety adviser Jake Sullivan to the area to deal with each Syria and Gaza ceasefire and hostage points. Also this week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken will go to Turkey, which is backing an rebel faction that has clashed in northeast Syria with U.S.-backed Kurds, and Jordan.
The flurry of exercise – and the dedication to stay intensely concerned in a roiling Middle East – contrasts sharply with the message despatched to date by President-elect Donald Trump in response to the Syria disaster.
As insurgent forces swept southward towards Damascus final week, Mr. Trump jumped on social media to trumpet the hands-off method that would turn out to be the guideline of his Middle East coverage and broader overseas coverage imaginative and prescient.
“THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT,” Mr. Trump wrote, referring to Syria. “This is just not our combat.”
“We’re on this odd state of affairs”
The dissonance between the present and future U.S. administrations is complicated main gamers within the area and elevating questions on U.S. ties going ahead, some Mideast coverage consultants say.
“This comes at a really awkward time in a presidential transition,” says Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program on the middle for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “Trump’s acknowledged aim is remaining aloof from the battle in Syria, however many U.S. allies have acute pursuits at stake [while] the potential for issues … to metastasize is massive.”
Perhaps most worrisome for the U.S. among the many issues that would unfold from a destabilized Syria is worldwide terrorism. ISIS had been regaining power in Syria even earlier than Mr. Assad’s fall, with counterterrorism consultants reporting a multiplication of assaults by the group over the previous month.
The U.S. has already carried out dozens of strikes towards weapons websites in Syria – and can stay able to take additional motion towards property threatening regional stability, together with a regrouping ISIS, administration officers say.
Yet U.S. allies and adversaries alike could surprise, consultants and former diplomats say, if a final flourish of motion by Mr. Biden can be adopted by an inward flip and far greater threshold for worldwide engagement by the Trump White House.
“We’re on this odd state of affairs the place it’s not precisely clear what U.S. coverage is at a time of great flux and alternatives,” says John Hannah, who served in senior nationwide safety positions in each Democratic and Republican administrations.
Concern for alternatives misplaced
Indeed for a lot of regional observers, this second presents quite a few alternatives not imagined even per week in the past. They vary from seeing an finish to Russia’s army presence in Syria to undoing the chokehold Iran-backed Houthi rebels have had on worldwide commerce routes off the coast of Yemen. But the U.S. will solely be capable of exploit them – and precisely assess the looming dangers the state of affairs presents – with nonstop, hands-on engagement, some seasoned diplomats say.
“This is when there’s a nice want for what I might name expeditionary diplomacy,” says Ryan Crocker, a former U.S. ambassador to Syria. “This is a time, if we need to keep away from missteps or main surprises, for the closest potential consultations we will handle with our companions within the space.”
Ambassador Crocker additionally advocates “a diplomatic presence established on the bottom as quickly as potential,” regardless of the issues the U.S. faces in participating instantly with the main insurgent faction, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. HTS is designated a terrorist group by the U.S., European Union, and United Nations, although it has sought to make the case it has moderated.
For essentially the most bold among the many “this second presents alternatives” camp, Mr. Assad’s fall – and the blow it has dealt to chief patrons Russia and Iran – cements a rising conviction that there’s a window for motion towards Tehran’s advancing nuclear program.
Their concern is that the transition from a lame-duck U.S. administration to 1 already projecting an isolationist bent, might imply alternatives misplaced.
“There are some distinctive alternatives” due to occasions in Syria “to deal with a number of the unresolved challenges within the Middle East … and an important of these is Iran’s nuclear program,” says Mr. Hannah, now a senior fellow in protection and technique on the Jewish Institute for National Security of America. “We could have a chance to get that job carried out.”
Diplomats and others who served within the first Trump administration say they’re all however sure the U.S. will return subsequent yr to the “most stress marketing campaign” of strengthened sanctions towards Iran.
“A combat for Trump’s thoughts”
At the identical time, others acknowledge there’s more likely to be an intense interventionist-versus-not-our-fight competitors throughout the new Trump administration for a inexperienced mild on looming consequential coverage selections. They embody the extent and kind of cooperation with Israel on any army motion towards Iranian nuclear websites.
For advocates of intervention, the chance could also be now or by no means to cease a severely weakened Iran from reacting to the lack of the keystone in its “Axis of Resistance” by speeding to provide a nuclear weapon. U.N. officers reported final week that Iran’s nuclear program has superior considerably in current months.
The different key Syria-related query a returning President Trump will face is what to do in regards to the U.S. forces on the bottom and their counterterrorism mission.
“I feel there can be a combat for Trump’s thoughts about how shortly we pull our forces out of jap Syria,” says Mr. Hannah.
Analysts with contacts contained in the incoming administration’s foreign-policy circles say the “not our combat” group will argue that any reemerging worldwide terrorism menace might be addressed by different U.S. property within the area.
But others say President Trump could need to assume twice earlier than pulling the plug on the counterterrorism forces.
“If I had been speaking to President Trump about our troops there, I’d remind him that their prime mission is ISIS” and stopping the group’s resurgence, says Elliott Abrams, who served as particular consultant for Iran within the first Trump White House.
“I might say, ‘Mr. President, should you pull our guys out, and there’s an assault right here by one in all their guys, you’re going to be blamed,’” Ambassador Abrams says. “‘It’s not price it.’”
