As we method the collection of groups for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff subject, there isn’t a small quantity of concern over the opportunity of a group choosing up a 3rd loss on the season in a convention championship recreation and getting left our of the social gathering consequently. Fans of No. 8 SMU, No. 10 Boise State and even No. 5 Georgia are anxious about dropping and lacking out on historical past.
During considered one of his latest weekly press conferences, Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin spoke about his ideas on taking part in for a title at 10-2. Kiffin admitted he is relatively sit it out.
“The convention championship might have a huge impact each methods for folks. So I’ve talked to different coaches, so I’ll simply type of provide the feeling from another coaches and that is they do not need to be in it,” Kiffin mentioned. “The reward to get a bye versus the danger to get knocked out fully, I imply, that is a extremely large threat simply to get a bye.”
While it turned out to not be a priority for the Rebels, that obtained me pondering: How a lot of a threat is there?
CFP Selection Committee chairman Warde Manuel mentioned this week that the committee views convention championship video games as a “reward.” That could also be true, however solely to a degree. My commentary is that over time, the choice committee has been fairly forgiving of groups that lose their convention championship recreation to a higher-ranked group. That is a vital distinction as a result of upsets flip issues the wrong way up.
In the CFP period, which started with the 2014, each convention championship recreation between two ranked groups through which the lower-ranked group has received resulted within the lower-ranked group leaping its opponent within the ultimate CFP Rankings. When you might have one group leaping one other, they might land wherever among the many groups in and round them — that means these groups that didn’t play might see their rating change, for higher or worse, consequently. So, there’s additionally a threat to not taking part in within the title recreation.
Teams that misplaced their convention title video games to higher-ranked groups not often moved a couple of spot down consequently. Those that did virtually universally obtained blown out of their recreation. Some others had been additionally victimized by the motion of groups round them.
For instance, in 2023, Oregon misplaced an exciting Pac-12 title recreation to Washington, however the Ducks dropped from fifth to eighth within the ultimate rankings. One of the groups Oregon dropped behind was Ohio State, which was idle. The different two had been No. 8 Alabama, which jumped over the Ducks due to the Tide’s win over then-No. 1 Georgia, and seventh-ranked Texas, which pounded Oklahoma State 49-21.
When the 12-team playoff was initially introduced, the format was to incorporate the highest six convention champions and 6 at-large groups. But when the Pac-12 cratered amid a mass exodus, it was modified to a 5+7 mannequin. Using the initially proposed 12-team format and starting with the primary yr of the CFP, just one group would have dropped out of the playoff on account of dropping a aggressive championship recreation to a higher-ranked group. That would have been within the first yr of the CFP in 2014 when No. 11 Georgia Tech misplaced to fourth-ranked Florida State 37-35. The Yellow Jackets dropped one spot to twelfth, however that will have made them the primary group out of a 12-team playoff.
In 2014, the choice committee didn’t have a cutline that far down the rankings to consider. Perhaps this committee shall be cognizant of the brand new line and never essentially give groups a break to remain above it, however give some further thought to which of the groups amongst these being thought of is most deserving of that final spot within the subject. The committee definitely gave numerous thought final season to which group ought to be on the nice facet of the cutline, and that resulted within the demotion of undefeated ACC champion Florida State.
How would possibly the committee choose this weekend?
So, how can that impression issues this season? Georgia is excessive sufficient within the rankings to be within the subject win or lose. Even if the Bulldogs get boat-raced by a group they beforehand beat on the street, the Bulldogs are prone to keep forward of Alabama.
SMU and Boise State is probably not so fortunate, nevertheless, as each are in motion towards lower-ranked groups.
If the Broncos lose at residence to UNLV, a group additionally they beforehand beat on the street, they’ll undoubtedly drop out of the CFP bracket if not behind the Rebels. UNLV would transfer up excessive sufficient to be in play for a bye, however my guess is that the fourth bye would go to the Big 12 champion in that state of affairs. Both groups would end within the teenagers of the rankings.
What if SMU loses to No. 17 Clemson? Even with the Tigers bettering to 10-3, it’s a must to determine that will in all probability not leap the 11-2 Mustangs, but it surely can’t be dominated out. The ceiling for SMU’s fall down the rankings is true above No. 12 Miami. There is not any head-to-head consequence, however SMU would have higher losses and neither group would have a win over a ranked opponent. Staying forward of Alabama appears unlikely as a result of with a loss to Clemson, SMU’s resume appears way more like Miami’s than it does that of the Crimson Tide. We already know the way the committee feels about that comparability, so that is seemingly an elimination recreation for SMU as nicely.
A loss by SMU would undoubtedly put the Big 12 champion able to earn a bye. There is not any cause to imagine that Clemson would move the winner of that convention.
