EL SEGUNDO, Calif. — The Kansas City Chiefs, at 11-1, are greater than possible going to say their ninth straight AFC West title. The Los Angeles Chargers, who final gained the division in 2009, are in second place at 8-4. They have a 5 % likelihood of overcoming the Chiefs down the house stretch and ending atop the AFC West, in keeping with The Athletic’s playoff projection mannequin.
It’s a protracted shot. It will turn out to be no shot if the Chargers lose to the Chiefs on Sunday evening at Arrowhead.
With a win, in keeping with the mannequin, the Chargers would enhance their division-winning odds to 13.9 %. Over their remaining 4 video games, the Chiefs face a now-feisty Cleveland Browns staff, two division leaders within the Houston Texans (8-5) and Steelers (9-3), and a probable playoff staff within the Denver Broncos (8-5). The Chargers, in the meantime, have three of 4 video games towards groups with out profitable information — the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6), New England Patriots (3-10) and Las Vegas Raiders (2-10). They additionally face the Broncos.
A easy have a look at the standings would point out that the Chiefs, with their one loss, are juggernauts. That isn’t the case, which makes the Chargers’ division hopes a bit extra reasonable.
While the Chiefs entered the week tied for the perfect report within the league, they’ve a 54-point differential. That ranks eleventh within the league. In reality, since 2000, that’s the worst level differential among the many 23 groups which have began a season 11-1 or higher, in keeping with TruMedia. The subsequent closest staff in that span? The 2012 Atlanta Falcons, who began 11-1 with an 88-point differential. Only three groups since 2000 have began 11-1 or higher with a degree differential beneath 100. The Chiefs have pulled off some late-game magic this season.
The Chargers must defeat them to maintain their division desires alive. That is primarily what’s at stake Sunday, because the Chargers and Chiefs meet in among the best environments in professional soccer.
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Then there are the much less tangible stakes. What would a win at Arrowhead in December, with the postseason on the horizon, imply for what Jim Harbaugh is attempting to construct in Los Angeles?
“We’re within the playoff combat. Good,” Harbaugh mentioned this week. “It’s on the highway. Good. It’s towards the Chiefs. Good. Let’s get ready and prepare to roll.”
Here are some key matchups and storylines.
James missed the Chargers’ Week 4 loss to the Chiefs whereas serving a suspension. Kelce, the Chiefs’ star tight finish, caught seven of his 9 targets for 89 yards, his third-best receiving recreation of the season.
How keen is James for this matchup, contemplating he needed to watch the final recreation from his sofa?
“So excited, man,” he mentioned. “I’m simply able to go play. Can’t wait.”
James must be one-on-one with Kelce quantity on this recreation. Coordinator Jesse Minter has used James as a good finish eraser all through this season. James has been enjoying significantly extra nickel over the previous 5 weeks. It has turn out to be his major position in Minter’s protection.
Playing James at nickel aligns him nearer to the road of scrimmage and, subsequently, the ball. He might be extra impactful within the run recreation that method. It additionally permits him to play press-man protection on tight ends. James can also play press-man on tight ends when he aligns because the Chargers’ dime participant in six defensive again packages, one other place nearer to the road of scrimmage.
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The Chargers have confronted quite a lot of the perfect tight ends within the league this season, they usually have saved all of them in examine, largely due to how Minter is deploying James. The solely tight finish to complete with greater than 60 yards towards the Chargers was Kelce, and James clearly didn’t play in that recreation.
The Raiders’ Brock Bowers, who leads all tight ends with 884 receiving yards, had 58 yards in Week 1. The Arizona Cardinals’ Trey McBride, who’s second with 781 yards, had 51 yards in Week 7. The Browns’ David Njoku had 29 yards in Week 9. The Baltimore Ravens’ Mark Andrews had 44 yards in Week 12. Last week, the Falcons’ Kyle Pitts didn’t have a catch on two targets.
“All these guys ready me for these moments,” James mentioned.
According to Pro Football Focus, James has solely given up 5 completions to tight ends all season — one to Bowers, one to Andrews, one to the Carolina Panthers’ Tommy Tremble and two to the New Orleans Saints’ Juwan Johnson.
“He’s among the best gamers within the league when he’s doing the issues I feel that he does very well,” Minter mentioned of James.
James will possible be matched up with Kelce in man protection in some pivotal moments. How these reps go shall be a giant issue within the recreation, as is at all times the case when James and Kelce are on the sector collectively.
“It’s a battle,” James mentioned. “It’s man-on-man, so what time it’s.”
Derwin James will possible spend most of his evening with an eye fixed on Travis Kelce. (Jamie Squire / Getty Images)
Protecting towards Chiefs’ stress packages
On prime of lacking James on protection, the Chargers have been with out each of their beginning tackles towards the Chiefs in Week 4.
Left sort out Rashawn Slater missed the sport with a pectoral damage. Right sort out Joe Alt missed the sport with a knee damage. The Chargers kicked Trey Pipkins III out to proper sort out from proper guard. Jamaree Salyer began at left sort out. Sam Mustipher began at proper guard. And then Justin Herbert was nonetheless severely affected by the excessive ankle sprain he suffered in Week 2.
“Justin may barely transfer on the time,” offensive coordinator Greg Roman mentioned this week. “So I feel it’s going to be a really totally different ball recreation.”
Amid the accidents, the Chargers struggled in cross safety. Herbert was pressured on 51.7 % of his dropbacks, in keeping with TruMedia, which stays a season excessive. He may do little or no to create when stress arrived. Defensive lineman Chris Jones had two third-down sacks, which got here on blitzes from the Chiefs protection. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is among the most blitz-happy play callers within the league, and he picked his spots towards the Chargers.
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How will the Chargers fare towards Spagnuolo’s blitzes this time round, now that they’re at full power up entrance and at quarterback?
“He at all times does some issues that you just haven’t actually scouted or seen,” Roman mentioned.
The key for the Chargers shall be avoiding clear-passing conditions. They need to be extra environment friendly on early downs. The Chargers rank thirty first in offensive success charge on first and second downs, in keeping with TruMedia. If they’re inefficient on these downs, that can arrange third-and-longs, and Spagnuolo can dial up some unique appears.
The Chiefs have the third-highest blitz charge within the league at 24.1 %, in keeping with TruMedia. On third and fourth downs with 8 or extra yards to realize, that charge jumps to 48.5 %.
“Try to present your gamers as many appears as you possibly can within the week and alert them to issues which will occur,” Roman mentioned, “after which go play the sport.”
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A extra ‘methodical’ Chiefs offense
Over the previous two seasons, the Chiefs have pivoted their offensive id. In quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ first 5 seasons as a starter, the Chiefs had probably the most explosive offense in soccer. They created explosives — completions of greater than 15 yards and rushes of greater than 11 yards — on 13.1 % of their offensive performs, the best mark within the league, in keeping with TruMedia.
In 2023, that charge dropped to 10.4 %, which ranked sixteenth. This season, the Chiefs are creating explosives on 9 % of their offensive performs, which ranks twenty ninth.
And but the Chiefs nonetheless rank fourth in offensive success charge, in keeping with TruMedia. They are usually not the identical explosive offense. They are nonetheless offense. Just smaller bites to complete the meal.
The Chiefs obtain this by being wonderful on third down. They are the one staff within the league changing third downs greater than 50 % of the time. They are at a 64.4 % conversion charge on third downs with 7 or fewer yards to realize, additionally the perfect mark within the league, in keeping with TruMedia.
“They can win video games nearly each which method,” Minter mentioned. “They can get within the shootout and hit the explosives, they usually’ve obtained the ability guys to try this. They might be within the grind-it-out (video games). They’ve obtained a very good protection, too. They belief Patrick to maneuver the sticks. And so I feel what makes them difficult is that even when they’re methodical, they’re nonetheless so good on third down that they only transfer the ball.”
The place to begin for the Chargers shall be stopping the run. Running again Isiah Pacheco returned off injured reserve in final week’s win over the Raiders. He had seven carries for 44 yards in his first recreation since Sept. 15. He ought to see an elevated workload now that he has a recreation beneath his belt. The Chiefs are eighth in EPA per designed rush regardless that they have been lacking Pacheco for a lot of the season.
If the Chargers can decelerate the working recreation, they’ll get into some longer third downs. And they may doubtlessly have a bonus on the sting. The Chiefs benched their left sort out, Wanya Morris, towards the Raiders. They signed D.J. Humphries final week, and Humphries is in line to begin rather than Morris on Sunday evening.
Left sort out has been a serious subject for the Chiefs all season. Of their 17 sacks allowed, 9 have come from left sort out between Morris and rookie Kingsley Suamataia, in keeping with TruMedia. Humphries has not performed in an NFL recreation in almost a yr. Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, Tuli Tuipulotu and Bud Dupree may have an opportunity to eat on that aspect of the Chiefs line.
(Top picture of Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes: Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times by way of Getty Images)
