Making powerful lineup choices every week could be probably the most difficult a part of the fantasy soccer course of.
My weekly matchup rankings present a schedule-independent methodology to judge positional matchups, itemizing all 32 opposing defenses so as of most to least favorable for opposing gamers in any respect 4 ability positions (quarterback, working again, broad receiver and tight finish). Instead of counting on seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed information to point out how every protection fared relative to the problem of the schedule it has confronted. This offers a fairer method to judging the standard of particular person matchups.
Adjusted fantasy factors allowed (or Adj. FPA) displays how far above or beneath gamers’ weekly fantasy averages that protection held opponents at that place. A optimistic quantity implies that the matchup is favorable; a adverse quantity means it’s unfavorable. Additionally, bear in mind groups usually use a number of working backs and broad receivers, and these plus/minus averages cowl all of a crew’s personnel at that place.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are solely one ingredient in my rankings method. Not each favorable matchup needs to be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup averted. If you need my — and ESPN fantasy workers’s — most full supply for whom to begin and sit every week, seek the advice of our weekly rankings.
All references to fantasy factors are for PPR scoring, until in any other case famous.
Quarterbacks
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How stunning has the Vikings success been this season?
Shannon Sharpe and Dan Orlovsky debate whether or not the Vikings’ success has been a shock this season below quarterback Sam Darnold.
Matchups spotlight: Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings (at Detroit Lions). Fantasy managers need gamers with motivation to carry out for his or her Week 18 title matchups, and Vikings-Lions brings loads of it, with the NFC North title and the convention’s No. 1 seed at stake of their Sunday Night Football matchup. Darnold, who has not less than 21 fantasy factors in 5 of his previous seven video games, is in pretty much as good a spot as most any quarterback. The opposing Lions have collapsed towards quarterbacks just lately, significantly since dropping cornerback Carlton Davis III to a fractured jaw in Week 15. The previous three starters to face them averaged 31.4 fantasy factors.
Others to love: Drake Maye, New England Patriots (versus Buffalo Bills); Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers (at Atlanta Falcons).
Matchup to keep away from: Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (versus Chicago Bears). The Packers are locked into both the NFC’s No. 6 or 7 seed, and it is unclear early within the week whether or not they’ll play their starters for the total contest. Even in the event that they do, Love is not in the most effective place towards the Bears, even when he did rating a decent 20.24 fantasy factors of their Week 11 matchup. He hasn’t been a distinguished a part of the Packers’ offensive assault just lately, averaging solely 24.7 passing makes an attempt in seven video games because the bye week, whereas beginning working again Josh Jacobs has averaged 19.6 speeding makes an attempt throughout that span. Additionally, the previous 5 quarterbacks to face the Bears have averaged solely 16.8 factors and 30.8 passing makes an attempt.
Running backs
Matchups spotlight: Isaac Guerendo, San Francisco 49ers (at Arizona Cardinals). Guerendo has been lots productive as Christian McCaffrey‘s most up-to-date fill-in, averaging 17.4 PPR fantasy factors and 16.7 touches within the 49ers’ previous three video games, and he does sufficient within the receiving recreation to attenuate the dangers that include adverse recreation script. The Cardinals have struggled defending the run just lately, because the previous 4 beginning working backs to face them have averaged 24.1 PPR fantasy factors. And should you mix Rhamondre Stevenson‘s and Antonio Gibson‘s Week 15 contributions (the 2 have been sharing the New England Patriots’ chores just lately), that weekly common will increase to 26.2.
Others to love: Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (versus New Orleans Saints); Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers (versus Cincinnati Bengals).
Matchup to keep away from: Tyrone Tracy Jr., New York Giants (at Philadelphia Eagles). The caveat to this matchup is that the Eagles, locked into the NFC’s No. 2 playoff seed, are prone to relaxation variety of their starters. That mentioned, the Eagles’ defensive scheme has been accountable for making them the second-toughest working again matchup by way of each Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (minus-5.2) and PPR fantasy factors per recreation allowed (16.5) and the hardest by way of factors per carry allowed (0.49) this season. The Eagles stay barely favored regardless of being in “relaxation” mode, and Tracy has averaged simply 10.3 factors in six video games because the bye.
Wide receivers
Matchups spotlight: Jameson Williams, Lions (versus Vikings). I had him within the “keep away from” part final week for his powerful matchup towards the 49ers, and he however discovered a gap to make a 41-yard catch on his technique to 24.5 PPR fantasy factors; this is hoping he will not flip the script whereas dealing with a a lot softer matchup this week. The Vikings have served up loads of numbers to broad receivers this season — their 6.3 Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed is most within the league, even when their 1.69 factors per goal common afforded to broad receivers is Tenth-fewest — and Sunday’s finale has a whopping 57.5 opening over/below, signaling a variety of throwing. The Vikings have seen eight totally different broad receivers exceed 14 PPR fantasy factors the previous 5 weeks alone, tied with the Steelers for the league’s most.
Others to love: Jordan Addison, Vikings (at Lions); Kayshon Boutte, Patriots (versus Bills).
Matchup to keep away from: Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals (versus 49ers). One of the extra disappointing fantasy gamers this season, Harrison has fallen straight into the fingers of his matchups, averaging 8.0 PPR fantasy factors towards his 4 hardest (utilizing seasonal Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed) and 19.8 towards his 4 softest. The 49ers qualify as one of many former, and the rookie confronted them again in Week 5 and ran 27 routes, noticed seven targets and scored a mere 5.6 factors in that recreation. Against opposing No. 1 broad receivers particularly, the 49ers have afforded just one.50 factors per goal for the season, fewest within the league.
Tight ends
Matchups spotlight: Brenton Strange, Jacksonville Jaguars (at Indianapolis Colts). If you are throwing darts at free-agent tight ends — and also you may nicely be, should you roster Travis Kelce — think about Strange, due to this excellent matchup. For the season, the Colts have afforded tight ends probably the most Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (4.1), third-most PPR fantasy factors per goal (2.04) and fifth-most whole factors per recreation (15.3). In the previous 5 weeks alone, Hunter Henry (Week 13), Adam Trautman (Week 15) and Chig Okonkwo (Week 16) have scored in double-digits towards the Colts.
Matchup to keep away from: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (versus Cleveland Browns). “Go with the blokes who received you this far” is a lots reputable technique at the moment of 12 months, however among the many notable fantasy tight ends, Andrews’ matchup is the one in all most concern. The Browns have been one of many higher defenses towards the place all season, however particularly over the previous seven weeks. During that point, the one tight finish who exceeded 10 PPR fantasy factors towards them was Dallas Goedert (12.5, Week 13), whereas opponents as an entire averaged 9.5 factors from the place.
