NFL playoff image after Week 14: Bucs reclaim NFC South lead; Eagles clinch playoff berth

Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lead the NFC South for the primary time in 10 weeks. Mayfield tossed three touchdowns en path to knocking off the Las Vegas Raiders 28-13 on Sunday, placing the Bucs again in charge of their playoff future.

Tampa will enter Week 15 at 7-6, and the Atlanta Falcons — losers of 4 straight, together with Sunday’s 42-21 shellacking in opposition to the Minnesota Vikings — have dropped to 6-7. Having misplaced to the Falcons twice this season, the Bucs have to win the division outright and keep away from tiebreakers, and they’re positioned to do exactly that.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Eagles survived a scare Sunday from the Carolina Panthers, hanging on to win 22-16 and clinching a playoff spot within the course of. They joined the Detroit Lions as the one NFC groups to have locked up a postseason berth this season.

As for the remainder of the NFL, right here’s the place issues stand within the playoff image coming into Week 15.

Listed odds to make the playoffs, safe the No. 1 seed and win the Super Bowl are all by way of The Athletic‘s NFL Projection Model, created by Austin Mock. 

x — Clinched playoff berth | z — Clinched division title | * — Clinched No. 1 seed

Remaining schedule: at Browns, vs. Texans, at Steelers, vs. Broncos

Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 78.6% | To win Super Bowl: 17.9%

Every group on the planet would join the Chiefs’ so-called flaws. No, they aren’t the explosive group that had been on show in previous seasons, however they only gained their ninth straight AFC West title and have a two-game lead for the No. 1 seed within the AFC with 4 video games to play. They needs to be heavy favorites in three of these video games, so the convention will run via Arrowhead but once more.

Remaining schedule: at Lions, vs. Patriots, vs. Jets, at Patriots

Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 16.8% | To win Super Bowl: 12%

The Bills’ defensive meltdown in opposition to the Los Angeles Rams took among the shine off the upcoming showdown with the Lions, however a much bigger subject is at stake. The Bills allowed receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp to mix for 270 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns, so the Lions will probably be trying to exploit these protection deficiencies. And in the event that they do? The floodgates is perhaps open for the Bills’ chief competitors within the playoffs, as well-run offenses will perceive tips on how to assault a group that hadn’t appeared susceptible for fairly some time.

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Remaining schedule: at Eagles, at Ravens, vs. Chiefs, vs. Bengals

Odds: To make playoffs: 99.9% | To earn bye: 4.4% | To win Super Bowl: 4.8%

The Steelers want each little bit of their two-game benefit over the Baltimore Ravens as a result of they’ve the third-hardest remaining power of schedule within the league (and the toughest amongst groups within the playoff discipline). With a lot consideration on AFC powers just like the Chiefs and Bills, the Steelers have a chance to indicate how they stack up over the ultimate month.

Remaining schedule: vs. Dolphins, at Chiefs, vs. Ravens, at Titans

Odds: To make playoffs: 96% | To earn bye: 0.1% | To win Super Bowl: 4.2%

The Texans have a two-game lead and the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Indianapolis Colts, in order that they’re nonetheless in fine condition after leaking oil with 4 losses of their previous seven video games. But with a troublesome schedule down the stretch, the Texans higher have put their bye week to good use.

Remaining schedule: at Giants, vs. Steelers, at Texans, vs. Browns

Odds: To make playoffs: 95.3% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 4.7%

Lamar Jackson is making an attempt to develop into the seventh participant to win his third MVP Award, however he has greater objectives in thoughts. He’s one among 10 multi-MVP winners within the Super Bowl period who’ve by no means hoisted the Lombardi Trophy. For what it’s value, Jackson is 1-2 within the playoffs when he has gained the MVP and 1-2 in non-MVP seasons.

Remaining schedule: vs. Buccaneers, vs. Broncos, at Patriots, at Raiders

Odds: To make playoffs: 89.2%| To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 3%

The Chargers are altering the narrative this season, however they aren’t over the hump but. They had been swept by the Chiefs for the third consecutive season, they usually’re 1-4 in opposition to groups within the playoff discipline. The win got here in opposition to the Denver Broncos, who’re 1-5 in opposition to present playoff groups.

Remaining schedule: vs. Colts, at Chargers, at Bengals, vs. Chiefs

Odds: To make playoffs: 74.5% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 2.3%

The Broncos have averaged 36 factors per outing of their previous three video games, however their opponents over that stretch are ranked within the backside third of the league in factors allowed. Credit the Broncos for benefiting from a weak schedule, however their postseason viability will probably be questionable.

• Indianapolis Colts (6-7)
• Miami Dolphins (6-7)
• Cincinnati Bengals (5-8)

Eliminated

• Cleveland Browns (3-10)
• Jacksonville Jaguars (3-10)
• New York Jets (3-10)
• New England Patriots (3-10)
• Tennessee Titans (3-10)
• Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)

x — Clinched playoff berth | z — Clinched division title | * — Clinched No. 1 seed

Remaining schedule: vs. Bills, at Bears, at 49ers, vs. Vikings

Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 60.5% | To win Super Bowl: 17.4%

With the perfect report within the league, the Lions have gotten accustomed to profitable in nearly each scenario. But with back-to-back 3-point wins, they’re 4-0 in video games determined by 3 factors or fewer. They’re essentially the most basically sound group within the NFL, they usually don’t get rattled in tense conditions.

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Remaining schedule: vs. Steelers, at Commanders, vs. Cowboys, vs. Giants

Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 32% | To win Super Bowl: 12.8%

Saquon Barkley has a reputable case for MVP, however the Eagles’ schedule would possibly work in opposition to him as a result of they don’t have one other prime-time recreation, which is normally a useful showcase for the distinguished award.

Remaining schedule: vs. Packers, vs. Vikings, at Bears, at Rams

Odds: To make playoffs: 58.8% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 2%

The Seahawks’ four-game profitable streak is their longest since 2022, after they final made the playoffs, in order that they’ve rebounded properly after dropping 5 of six. But even with the cushion within the NFC West, they’ve a variety of work to do with a difficult remaining schedule. They have the Green Bay Packers on Sunday evening, and absolutely nothing bizarre ever occurs when these groups meet below the lights.

Remaining schedule: at Chargers, at Cowboys, vs. Panthers, vs. Saints

Odds: To make playoffs: 70.9% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 2.6%

The Bucs shook off a four-game shedding streak with three consecutive wins, and the Falcons have handled their very own four-game slide. The Bucs have an enormous recreation this week in opposition to the Chargers earlier than taking up three opponents with shedding information, in order that they have a shot to shut the common season on a seven-game profitable streak.

Remaining schedule: vs. Bears, at Seahawks, vs. Packers, at Lions

Odds: To make playoffs: 99.9% | To earn bye: 7.5% | To win Super Bowl: 5.7%

Justin Jefferson simply caught his first landing go since Week 7. No matter, because the Vikings had been 5-1 throughout that scoring drought, protecting that Week 18 go to to Detroit as a possible prime-time blockbuster. That consequence might be the distinction between the NFC’s No. 1 seed and a bye or a playoff opener in Seattle or Tampa.

Remaining schedule: at Seahawks, vs. Saints, at Vikings, vs. Bears

Odds: To make playoffs: 95.7% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 5.4%

The Packers are a reputable risk, as they confirmed throughout a good loss to the Lions, however there are a few issues. They’re 5-3 in one-possession video games, with these three losses coming by a mixed 10 factors, in order that they’re slightly higher than a coin flip in tight contests. And they’re 1-4 in opposition to groups within the playoff image, with the lone win coming at house in opposition to the Texans in Week 7. Those are robust tendencies to interrupt for a group that may open the postseason on the street.

Remaining schedule: at Saints, vs. Eagles, vs. Falcons, at Cowboys

Odds: To make playoffs: 82.5% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 1.8%

The Commanders are clinging to the ultimate wild-card spot, they usually have a large recreation in two weeks in opposition to the Eagles, who’re projected to be their playoff opponent. The Commanders are 0-4 in opposition to groups which can be within the postseason image, together with a Week 11 loss in Philadelphia.

• Los Angeles Rams (7-6)
• Atlanta Falcons (6-7)
• Arizona Cardinals (6-7)
• San Francisco 49ers (6-7)
• New Orleans Saints (5-8)
• Dallas Cowboys (5-8)
• Chicago Bears (4-9)
• Carolina Panthers (3-10)

Eliminated

• New York Giants (2-11)

(Photo of Baker Mayfield: Mike Ehrmann / Getty Images)