We’re by way of Week 15 of the 2024 NFL regular season and already three video games into Week 16. Although the postseason remains to be three weeks away, we’re taking an early take a look at the current playoff picture and the street to Super Bowl LIX. Which groups are in fine condition? Which nonetheless have numerous work to do to finally get into the 14-team field?
We used ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) to venture the remainder of the season, wanting on the playoff image for each conferences. We included up to date odds for each group to make the postseason, clinch its division and even make the Super Bowl. We additionally appeared on the potential for groups within the playoff image to complete in particular seeds and the potential for groups out of the playoff image to complete with the highest draft decide. Here’s the whole lot you want proper now.
Last replace: Dec. 22 at 9:30 a.m. ET
Jump to:
AFC | NFC | Seeds | No. 1 pick
Projecting the AFC playoff subject
The Chiefs, Bills and Texans have all clinched their respective division titles, and the Steelers and Ravens are additionally formally within the playoffs. The Chargers and Broncos additionally look good to make the playoffs, so there won’t be a ton to play for on this convention past Week 16.
-
The Broncos can clinch with losses from Cincinnati, Indianapolis and Miami.
-
The Chargers can clinch with losses from Indianapolis and Miami.
Six groups have been eradicated within the AFC: the Titans, Raiders, Jets, Patriots, Jaguars and Browns.
Projecting the NFC playoff subject
The Lions, Eagles and Vikings have all clinched spots within the playoffs, and the Packers are on the verge of becoming a member of them. They want a win against the Saints. But they’ll additionally get in with a loss from the Falcons after which a loss from both the Seahawks or Rams. Beyond that, there may be nonetheless loads up within the air within the NFC.
The Eagles take the NFC East with a win over Washington, and the NFC South seems to be a two-team race between the Buccaneers and Falcons, although Tampa Bay is favored (85% to win the division). The NFC West is large open. The Rams have a 54% probability on the playoffs and 53% on the division. But the Seahawks and Cardinals are each very a lot alive there.
The Commanders can clinch a playoff spot with a win, a Falcons loss after which a further loss from both the Rams or Seahawks.
The Giants, Bears and Panthers have been eradicated, and the Cowboys, Saints and 49ers are headed in that path. Seven NFC groups have elimination situations this weekend, and 4 of them — Cincinnati, Dallas, New Orleans and San Francisco — are out with a loss and no further necessities.
Check out our NFL Playoff Machine
Simulate your individual situations and take a look at the most recent playoff image: Try the 2024 NFL Playoff Picture.
Seeding projections
Here are the probabilities that groups within the playoff combine fall into every slot as soon as the sphere is ready. In the highest spot, the Chiefs maintain the benefit at 92%. They would clinch this weekend with a Bills loss. ESPN’s FPI can be fairly assured that Houston will find yourself in that No. 4 spot within the AFC, however it is not positive on different playoff contenders. The Ravens, for example, have a 39% probability to complete third, 37% probability to complete fifth and 15% probability to complete sixth.
The shut division races within the NFC make the Nos. 3 and 4 seeds very a lot up for grabs. Interestingly, the No. 5 seed is almost assured to the second-place finisher within the NFC North. And as for the No. 1 seed, the Lions maintain the benefit over the Eagles and Vikings for the time being — however the hole has narrowed.
Race for the 2025 No. 1 draft decide
The Giants (2-12) are eradicated from the playoffs and seem like within the driver’s seat for the No. 1 decide in April. After releasing Daniel Jones, New York will certainly be wanting on the quarterback class. But the Patriots and Raiders are within the combine for the highest decide, too. See the full draft order here, which is up to date on Tuesdays.
NFL playoff schedule
Jan. 11-13, 2025: Wild-card round
Jan. 18-19: Divisional round
Jan. 26: AFC and NFC championship games
Feb. 9: Super Bowl LIX (in New Orleans)
