NFL Week 16 Props that Pop: Banking on Gibbs and a lift for Falcons

It’s Week 16? Yes, it is Week 16! The fantasy football postseason is in its second week for many digital fans, and the actual life NFL playoffs are simply across the nook.

This week, Daniel Dopp and I intention to enhance on our numbers whereas lining your pockets with some additional vacation spending cash.

Let’s dig in! — Liz Loza

All odds as of publication time. For the most recent odds, go to ESPN BET.

Quarterback props

Drake Maye OVER 199.5 passing yards (-115), OVER 0.5 INTs (-165)

Loza: Maye has been a rubbish time hero, padding his stats whereas chasing factors. That’s a pattern that figures to proceed with the New England Patriots as 14-point highway underdogs at Orchard Park, New York. Maye is averaging 189.7 passing yards on the season, however he has gone over 200 passing yards in 4 consecutive contests. In his fervor, he has additionally tossed seven picks over his previous six outings. The Buffalo Bills secondary is affected by accidents, which ought to assist Maye join along with his receiving corps. Buffalo additionally ranks seventh in complete INTs with a formidable 13 on the season. With solely a 5% probability of rain at the moment anticipated for Sunday’s matchup, the climate should not deter Maye from placing the ball within the air sufficient instances to win each wagers.

Caleb Williams longest rush OVER 12.5 yards (-120)

Dopp: The Lions’ defensive woes got here to a head after they performed Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills final week, shedding regardless of scoring 42 factors! One of the ways in which Allen and the Bills have been capable of beat this protection was by counting on Allen’s legs to choose up yards on the bottom when performs broke down. It’s one thing that each Lions fan has witnessed all season (at the least since Aiden Hutchinson was misplaced for the season).

Given Aaron Glenn’s heavy man protection scheme, QBs have been capable of choose up large chunks of yardage all season, although it has been even worse within the second half with the entire defensive accidents Detroit has suffered. The Lions have allowed QBs to a rush of 13 yards or extra on 11 totally different events this 12 months. Sam Darnold topped this line in Week 7, as did Mason Rudolph in Week 8. In Weeks 9 to 11, the Lions held Mac Jones, C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love — with Love being the one one with mobility — to fall brief over that span. In Week 12, Anthony Richardson topped this line. In Week 13, Williams exceeded this line. In Week 14, Love acquired his revenge and bested this line. In Week 15, Allen overcame this line.

See a pattern? The Lions have given up at the least 13 yards on a single rush try and QBs in every of the previous 4 weeks. This protection remains to be severely banged up, particularly on the LB place, and I’m anticipating Williams to clear this quantity as soon as once more.

Running again props

Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 125.5 dashing + receiving yards (-118)

Dopp: Gibbs is in line for some additional work within the Lions backfield with David Montgomery finished for the common season. The harm is heartbreaking for Lions followers, nevertheless it does clear that backfield for these seeking to put in a prop guess on Gibbs.

Earlier this week, Michael Lester Clay Jr. tweeted about Gibbs’ performances when Montgomery has missed time this year. For the sake of brevity, Gibbs had 20 touches in Week 7 for 126 yards (and a TD) and 31 touches in Week 8 for a career-high 189 yards (and a TD). Not solely did he smash in these two weeks, however he additionally showcased his means to carve up this Bears’ protection in Week 13 when he had 11 touches for 104 yards.

This Bears’ protection has slowed fairly a bit in current weeks, permitting Josh Jacobs to hit 134 yards in Week 11, Aaron Jones to achieve 129 yards in Week 12, Montgomery to submit 124 in Week 13 and Isaac Guerendo to supply 128 in Week 14. Knowing that Gibbs is an enormous play ready to occur within the dashing and passing sport and the current struggles the Bears have had in opposition to opposing RBs, I’m taking Gibbs to hit the over.

Wide receiver props

Darnell Mooney 50+ receiving yards (-125), longest reception OVER 22.5 yards (-110)

Loza: The Michael Penix Jr. period begins Sunday versus the New York Giants. Penix dazzled on the University of Washington, demonstrating unbelievable arm expertise and main the FBS in passing final season. Penix accomplished and tried probably the most throws 20 yards downfield of any FBS participant in 2023. While some bettors might need considerations in regards to the rookie’s effectivity in his first begin, I’m assured he’ll raise the Atlanta Falcons and additional unlock the group’s downfield weapons. That units up properly for Mooney, who ranks sixteenth in aDOT (12.74) amongst large receivers and 18th in reception proportion over 20 yards (33%). Penix and Mooney determine to flash in opposition to a Giants secondary that has allowed the very best completion proportion on deep passes (65%) this season.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba OVER 59.5 receiving yards, 4+ receptions (SGP +163)

Dopp: JSN has been cruising these days, seemingly taking up because the WR1 on this Seattle Seahawks passing assault. He leads the group in targets, receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. It’s been a breakout season for the second-year WR and there is a probability it may get even higher this week in opposition to the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings have allowed probably the most targets, receptions and receiving yards to large receivers this 12 months, in addition to the fourth-most completions and third-most yards to the slot, which is the place JSN has lived.

The Seahawks ought to proceed to depend on their breakout star as they NEED to win this sport to remain within the NFC playoff hunt. JSN has at the least 4 receptions and 59.5 receiving yards in seven straight video games! The reality that you just’re capable of get plus cash on a line that he has hit seven weeks in a row in opposition to a group that provides up yards and receptions prefer it’s going out of favor appears wild to me, nevertheless it’s not my day to make the traces over at ESPN BET. This is my favourite guess of the weekend, and I’m encouraging everybody to leap on this earlier than we see a shift within the odds. Give me JSN to hit this same-game parlay.

Tight finish prop

Pat Freiermuth OVER 3.5 receptions (Even)

Loza: The Pittsburgh Steelers have surprisingly stymied Lamar Jackson over a lot of his profession, because the Baltimore Ravens signal-caller has managed only a 2-5 document in opposition to the AFC North rival. Still, the Ravens are 6.5-point dwelling favorites for the Week 16 matchup. With Russell Wilson more likely to be chasing factors and George Pickens sidelined for a 3rd straight contest, Freiermuth figures to attract hefty quantity. The veteran tight finish has posted three catches in back-to-back video games, however that quantity ought to improve given the matchup. Baltimore has allowed the seventh-most catches to opposing TEs (5.2 per sport). Look for Muth to haul in at the least 4 grabs Saturday.

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