Our information to the NFL playoffs: Reasons for hope — and concern — for all 14 groups

The 2024 NFL playoffs are right here, and the No. 1 seeds in every convention — the Chiefs within the AFC and the Lions within the NFC — will obtain first-round byes. The remaining 12 groups will play in subsequent weekend’s three-day wild-card round. Two video games will likely be performed Saturday; three are slated for Sunday; and the motion will culminate in a Monday evening contest that will likely be broadcast by ESPN/ABC.

Which groups are prepared for deep playoff runs? Which ones have issues that may influence their wild-card weekend matchups? And which gamers might play huge elements of their groups attending to the Super Bowl?

Here’s what every of the 14 playoff groups should do to succeed in Super Bowl LIX on Feb. 9 at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. Our NFL Nation workforce reporters picked out strengths and weaknesses for every franchise, and analytics author Seth Walder recognized a key stat to know for every membership. Then Ben Solak gave his private warmth examine (ranking from 1 to 10) for every playoff squad. (Odds are through ESPN BET.)

AFC:
1. Chiefs
2. Bills vs. 7. Broncos
3. Ravens vs. 6. Steelers
4. Texans vs. 5. Chargers

NFC:
1. Lions
2. Eagles vs. 7. Packers
3. Buccaneers vs. 6. Commanders
4. Rams vs. 5. Vikings

AFC

Odds to win Super Bowl: +350

First sport outlook: The Chiefs get the AFC’s prime seed for the second time in three seasons and for the fifth time since Patrick Mahomes turned the beginning quarterback. They will play within the divisional spherical towards the lowest-seeded wild-card workforce remaining (the No. 4 Texans, No. 5 Chargers, No. 6 Steelers or No. 7 Broncos) on both Saturday, Jan. 18, or Sunday, Jan. 19. The Chiefs have a mixed 5-1 report towards these groups, sweeping both games with the Chargers, beating each Houston and Pittsburgh in a stretch from Dec. 21-25 and splitting two video games with the Broncos. — ESPN

Reason for hope: A revitalized offense. The return of receiver Hollywood Brown, the event of rookie wideout Xavier Worthy and All-Pro guard Joe Thuney‘s play at left sort out has the offense trying just like the Chiefs hoped it will all season. Kansas City performed two of its finest offensive video games of the season in Weeks 16 and 17, its final regular-season video games with quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the starters. “We constructed as much as the right spot,” Mahomes mentioned. “We’ve gotten higher and higher earlier than Hollywood acquired right here. Xavier began enjoying higher, being extra assured … it type of units all people completely of their roles.”

Reason for concern: Pass safety. The safety has improved since Thuney moved from left guard to left sort out, however Mahomes was nonetheless sacked 36 occasions this season, probably the most he has ever taken. The Chiefs are nonetheless struggling to generate huge go performs as a consequence of Mahomes being compelled to throw the ball shortly. Right sort out Jawaan Taylor is the third-most penalized participant within the league with 17 penalties, and people penalties have been one thing the Chiefs have struggled to beat this season. — Adam Teicher

Stat to know: Chris Jones recorded 62 go rush wins this season, probably the most by a defensive sort out. It’s truly probably the most by quite a bit. The Broncos’ Zach Allen completed with 52, whereas the Seahawks’ Leonard Williams completed third with 40. I convey this up as a result of it has been a quiet season for Jones on the sack entrance (solely 5), however make no mistake, the Chiefs nonetheless have a game-wrecker at defensive sort out who might make an enormous distinction within the playoffs. — Walder

Heat examine ranking: 10. The Chiefs proved their immortality time and time once more this season, and so they enter the postseason with a first-round bye, home-field benefit and a wholesome Brown and Isiah Pacheco. How might this not be a ten? — Solak

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Odds to win Super Bowl: +475

First sport outlook: The Bills will begin their sixth straight postseason by internet hosting the No. 7-seeded Broncos on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS). Buffalo didn’t play the Broncos this season, with their final assembly with Denver leading to 24-22 Monday night loss at house in Week 10 of the 2023 season. That sport ended with the Broncos kicking a walk-off area objective after the Bills had been penalized for 12 males on the sector on a game-winning miss the earlier play. — ESPN

Reason for hope: Quarterback Josh Allen. The favourite for MVP put collectively his finest common season thus far and has traditionally thrived within the postseason. Allen led the Bills’ offense to 12 video games scoring 30 factors or extra this season, and Buffalo has dedicated solely eight turnovers, tied with the 2019 Saints for the fewest in a season since 1933. “I do not prefer to make comparisons; I performed with Peyton Manning and Matthew Stafford. Those guys are particular in their very own proper,” defensive finish Von Miller mentioned. “But this yr, Josh is simply doing one thing completely completely different, and he isn’t forcing it. He’s not making an attempt too onerous, he isn’t searching for it; it is simply him.”

Reason for concern: Third-down protection. The Bills’ protection has been inconsistent this season and has allowed the fourth-highest third-down conversion proportion within the NFL (43.8%). The Bills will not have the ability to primarily depend on forcing turnovers towards the sturdy offenses they may face within the AFC playoffs. Buffalo should have the ability to get off the sector on third down. — Alaina Getzenberg

Stat to know: Allen has the bottom sack fee (2.6%), fourth-lowest interception fee (1.1%) and fifth-lowest fumble fee (0.8%) amongst QBR-qualified quarterbacks. When we consider Allen, we regularly consider large runs (he’s second to Jayden Daniels amongst quarterbacks in EPA on designed carries and scrambles) and his elite arm. But maybe his finest ability is avoiding errors and damaging performs. It’s an enormous a part of why he is distinctive and, presumably, the NFL MVP. — Walder

Heat examine ranking: 8. The Bills did not have a lot to play for in Week 18, however they ended the season profitable 10 of their final 12 video games and with arguably the perfect offense in soccer. They really feel deservedly nice getting into the postseason. — Solak

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Odds to win Super Bowl: +550

First sport outlook: The Ravens will play a rubber match towards the AFC North rival Steelers in Baltimore on Saturday (8 p.m. ET, Prime Video). They break up their two regular-season conferences, because the Steelers gained 18-16 in Pittsburgh in Week 11 and the Ravens gained the rematch 34-17 in Baltimore in Week 16 to take the AFC North lead for good. — ESPN

Reason for hope: The Ravens have been enjoying their finest ball on the finish of the season. They gained their ultimate 4 video games, outscoring opponents 135-43 in a stretch that included victories over the playoff-bound Steelers and Texans. While quarterback Lamar Jackson and the NFL’s No. 1 offense get the headlines, Baltimore’s protection has held groups to a league-low 15.4 factors per sport over the previous seven weeks. “Our plan now’s to peak on the proper time,” cornerback Marlon Humphrey mentioned, “and I really feel like we’re doing that.”

Reason for concern: Jackson’s surprisingly poor playoff monitor report. He is the one quarterback with a number of MVPs who hasn’t captured a Super Bowl title. Jackson has a 2-4 postseason report, throwing six interceptions and dropping three fumbles. In his 4 playoff losses, the Ravens have averaged solely 10.5 factors and have not exceed the 20-point mark. “The story’s nonetheless being written,” coach John Harbaugh mentioned of Jackson, “and there is much more to perform.” — Jamison Hensley

Stat to know: In Weeks 1-10, the Ravens ranked twenty ninth in EPA allowed per opponent dropback (0.15). But in Weeks 11-18, they ranked first (minus-0.15) in the identical class. I’m stealing this remark from Solak, however the Ravens have employed Kyle Hamilton as a security on 69.3% of his snaps since Week 11. Before that, he break up time amongst security, slot nook and linebacker, enjoying security on solely 26% of his snaps. That probably is not the solely issue, however the numbers say it issues. Baltimore has been higher when Hamilton is aligned at security than when he is not. — Walder

Heat examine ranking: 9. Jackson made an awesome December MVP push, the protection has been glorious because the secondary reshuffling, and the Ravens gained the AFC North over Pittsburgh. If not for the Zay Flowers injury, this could be an ideal 10. — Solak

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Odds to win Super Bowl: +6000

First sport outlook: The Texans made the playoffs for the second straight season and can host the No. 5-seeded Chargers on Saturday (4:30 p.m. ET, CBS). This is the eighth time since 2011 that the Texans have hosted a sport on wild-card weekend. Houston is 5-2 in these video games, most just lately defeating the Browns 45-14 final season. — ESPN

Reason for hope: The protection. Houston’s D has held opposing quarterbacks to a QBR of 54.7, the seventh-lowest within the NFL. The Texans put relentless strain on quarterbacks resulting in 49 sacks, tied for fourth within the league. Danielle Hunter is tied for fifth within the league with 12 sacks, and second-year edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. has 11. The unit additionally has Pro Bowl cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. and rookie security Calen Bullock, who’re tied for sixth within the NFL with 5 interceptions.

Reason for concern: Offensive inconsistency. The Texans’ offense is 18th in scoring (20.5 offensive factors per sport), so if the protection is not locking opponents down, Houston might be in bother. One look that has given quarterback C.J. Stroud points is split-safety protection, as he has a 36.0 QBR towards break up safeties (twenty eighth within the NFL). The offensive line hasn’t precisely helped its quarterback, as Stroud has been pressured 35.8% of the time this season, fourth highest within the NFL. — DJ Bien-Aime

Stat to know: The Texans rank twenty fourth in EPA per play since Week 10. Anyone watching the NFL this season is aware of that Houston has struggled on offense. But battle is placing it too mildly. The Texans have been dangerous. In truth, the passing sport has been down a lot in that span that it has a worse EPA per play rank than the operating sport. And that is one other factor everybody is aware of about Houston — it could’t run the ball! — Walder

Heat examine ranking: 5. The Texans did not have the common season they anticipated, however beating up on the Titans positive is a pleasant approach to finish issues. So lengthy as they’ve Stroud, Nico Collins and that go rush, they’ve an opportunity. — Solak

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Odds to win Super Bowl: +2500

First sport outlook: The Chargers are within the playoffs for the second time previously three seasons and can play at Houston on Saturday (4:30 p.m. ET, CBS). The Chargers have by no means performed the Texans within the playoffs and are making solely their fourth playoff look since 2010. Los Angeles’ final playoff sport did not go effectively, because it squandered a 27-0 first-half lead and misplaced 31-30 to the Jaguars on a walk-off area objective within the 2022 wild-card spherical. — ESPN

Reason for hope: Jim Harbaugh. In Harbaugh’s earlier NFL teaching stint, the 49ers made three NFC Championship Games and one Super Bowl in 4 seasons. By comparability, the Chargers as a franchise have performed in solely 4 convention championships, the newest coming through the 2007 season, and one Super Bowl. Harbaugh’s earlier playoff success, plus the turnaround he has engineered in getting a workforce that was 5-12 in 2023 into the postseason, offers L.A. hope.

Reason for concern: Inconsistent offense. Offense has been the Chargers’ Achilles’ heel all season, significantly within the second half of video games. The Bolts common 10.3 second-half factors, rating nineteenth within the league. L.A.’s league-leading scoring protection has helped masks the offense’s second-half disappearing act, however a continuation might knock the Chargers out of the playoffs shortly. — Kris Rhim

Stat to know: The Chargers rank within the prime six in EPA allowed per designed run play and per dropback. It’s significantly spectacular as a result of they’ve completed it with out an incredible go rush — they rank twenty second in go rush win fee. L.A.’s fairly excessive 7.1% sack fee might be extra a operate of a powerful secondary. Derwin James Jr. has the bottom yards per protection snap allowed (0.5) amongst gamers with 200 protection snaps and primarily traces up as a slot nook — however exterior nook Kristian Fulton and rookies Tarheeb Still and Cam Hart have been stable, too. — Walder

Heat examine ranking: 5. The decline of the protection has turned the Chargers from AFC playoff spoiler to probably one-and-done, however the Justin Herbert–Ladd McConkey connection is a enjoyable one. Mixed vibes right here. — Solak

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Odds to win Super Bowl: +7500

First sport outlook: The Steelers will play on the rival Ravens, going through No. 3-seed Baltimore on Saturday within the wild-card spherical (8 p.m. ET, Prime Video). Pittsburgh is 3-1 towards the Ravens within the playoffs however misplaced the newest assembly within the 2014 wild-card spherical. The Steelers enter this matchup on five-game playoff dropping streak courting to a divisional spherical victory over the Chiefs within the 2016 playoffs. — ESPN

Reason for hope: Russell Wilson. Despite a current string of pink zone turnovers, Wilson offers the offense the type of juice it has persistently lacked since Ben Roethlisberger’s 2019 elbow harm. In 11 begins, Wilson has accomplished 19 of 41 makes an attempt of greater than 20 air yards for 4 touchdowns and one interception. A yr in the past, three Steelers quarterbacks mixed to finish solely 15 of 52 makes an attempt on such passes for 4 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.

Reason for concern: Defensive lapses. Missed assignments and communication shortcomings have contributed to the protection, sometimes one of many stingiest items within the league, giving up a mean of 380.5 yards and 27.3 factors throughout Pittsburgh’s four-game late-season slide. The Steelers are tied for the NFL lead with 33 takeaways, however they managed solely 5 throughout their dropping streak after forcing three in every of the prior 4 contests. — Brooke Pryor

Stat to know: With vast receiver George Pickens on the sector, the Steelers averaged 0.07 EPA per dropback this season. Without him, that quantity dropped to minus-0.06. For context, the primary quantity is roughly equal to the Rams’ passing offense with Matthew Stafford. The latter is the Cowboys, who’ve began Cooper Rush in practically half their video games. On-off splits could be deceptive, however I believe Pickens’ influence is fairly clear. He permits downfield throws from Wilson — Pittsburgh’s common depth of goal is 7.1 yards with Pickens on area, 6.0 with out him — which the Steelers might want to have postseason success. — Walder

Heat examine ranking: 1. The Steelers limp into the postseason on a four-game dropping streak with a banged-up T.J. Watt, continued Pickens drama and lingering uncertainty as to who the cornerback starter is reverse Joey Porter Jr. That’s discouraging stuff. — Solak

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Odds to win Super Bowl: +6000

First sport outlook: The Broncos’ first playoff sport since profitable Super Bowl 50 will come on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS), after they head to Buffalo to face the No. 2-seeded Bills. The Broncos have not performed Buffalo within the playoffs because the 1991 season, when the Jim Kelly-led Bills defeated the John Elway-led Broncos 10-7 en path to Super Bowl XXVI. Denver has misplaced 4 straight highway playoff video games courting to a victory at Pittsburgh within the 1997 AFC Championship Game. — ESPN

Reason for hope: Defense. Even with some current bobbles — they gave up 27.3 factors per sport from Weeks 13 by 17 earlier than shutting out the Chiefs on Sunday — the Broncos are third within the league in general defensive effectivity, first in anticipated factors added on protection, first in sacks and third in scoring protection. Denver has scored 5 touchdowns and two safeties on protection this season. Getting again cornerback Riley Moss, who missed Weeks 13 by 16 with a knee harm, to stabilize the nook place reverse Pro Bowler Pat Surtain II ought to assist.

Reason for concern: Three-and-outs. The Broncos’ offense has the third-highest proportion of drives which have led to a three-and-out this season — a whopping 26.3%. The brief possessions have resulted in misplaced momentum and an incapacity to stop opponents from flipping area place. The Bo Nix-led offense has additionally put Denver’s protection in compromising positions, forcing it to return to motion shortly. Denver averages 29:46 in possession, twentieth within the league. — Jeff Legwold

Stat to know: The Broncos play extra man protection than another workforce (56%) and let Surtain — who has the bottom yards per protection snap (0.6) amongst exterior corners, per NFL Next Gen Stats — take away one aspect of the sector. Surtain achieved his success by goal deterrence — his 11% goal fee is the third lowest amongst exterior corners with at the least 200 protection snaps — and ball-hawking (4 interceptions). The Broncos often stick Surtain on the opponent’s finest receiver. In Week 17, Surtain lined up reverse Ja’Marr Chase 77% of the time. Surtain held the NFL’s main receiver to 27 yards as the first defender, per Next Gen Stats. — Walder

Heat examine ranking: 7. Denver’s arrow has been steadily pointing up all season, and the Broncos enter the postseason with an awesome protection and various offense. The ceiling is low with a rookie quarterback on the helm, however the vibes are good. — Solak

NFC

Odds to win Super Bowl: +450

First sport outlook: The Lions are the NFC’s No. 1 seed for the primary time in franchise historical past and can host the lowest-seeded wild-card winner (No. 4 Rams, No. 5 Vikings, No. 6 Commanders and No. 7 Packers) within the divisional spherical on Saturday, Jan. 18, or Sunday, Jan. 19. Detroit hasn’t performed Washington but however is 5-0 towards the opposite three opponents, sweeping two video games towards Minnesota and Green Bay and beating the Rams in extra time within the season opener. — ESPN

Reason for hope: The offense. The Lions can overwhelm opposing defenses with a wide range of choices. Veteran QB Jared Goff has been on prime of his sport, incomes beginning quarterback honors for the upcoming Pro Bowl. Running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, together with receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, made the Lions the primary workforce in NFL historical past to have two operating backs and two receivers who every topped 1,000 scrimmage yards in a single season. Montgomery’s standing is up within the air after struggling a Week 15 knee injury, although.

Reason for concern: An injury-riddled protection. When wholesome, the Lions have been dominant at occasions. But a slew of accidents to key gamers corresponding to edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, defensive sort out Alim McNeill and cornerback Carlton Davis III has taken a toll. Corner Terrion Arnold was additionally harm in Week 18. The Lions have been in a position to compensate within the common season, beating the 49ers 40-34 in Week 17 regardless of giving up 475 yards, however additionally they gave up 559 yards to the Bills in a 48-42 loss in Week 15. Can they win shootouts towards playoff-caliber competitors? — Eric Woodyard

Stat to know: Since Week 7 (their first sport after Hutchinson’s injury), the Lions have blitzed 41% of the time previous to Sunday evening’s sport, highest within the NFL. It’s their resolution for having no actual go rush with out Hutchinson, and to assist make up for all the injuries the protection has confronted. They’ll nearly actually need to depend on the blitz within the postseason, too, as a result of their splits with and with out the blitz are dramatic. Since Hutchinson’s harm, Detroit’s protection ranks third in EPA allowed per dropback when blitzing previous to Sunday evening. It drops to twenty seventh when not blitzing. — Walder

Heat examine ranking: 8. The warmth examine cannot be too excessive given the defensive worries, however a house win over a divisional rival to safe the first-round bye and home-field benefit? That’s fairly the springboard into the postseason. — Solak

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Odds to win Super Bowl: +650

First sport outlook: The Eagles get a rematch of their season opener, as they may host the No. 7-seeded Packers within the wild-card spherical on Sunday (4:30 p.m. ET, Fox). Philadelphia gained the preliminary assembly 34-29 in Sao Paulo, Brazil, because of 109 yards and two touchdowns from operating again Saquon Barkley in his Eagles debut. The Eagles have not gained a playoff sport since beating the 49ers within the NFC Championship Game following the 2022 season. — ESPN

Reason for hope: Elite personnel. The Eagles boast arguably the perfect roster in soccer, which features a top-tier offensive line, MVP contender and 2,000-yard rusher Barkley, a dynamic receiver duo in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith and a highly-ranked protection. It’s not solely a proficient group however a bodily one, giving it an actual probability to plow its approach into the Super Bowl.

Reason for concern: Slow begins. The Eagles failed to attain within the first quarter of their first seven video games and 10 occasions general through the common season. Philadelphia improved in that space down the stretch however nonetheless ranked twenty first in opening-quarter factors (3.7). Falling behind towards good groups within the playoffs might show pricey. — Tim McManus

Stat to know: Prior to resting their starters in Week 18 the Eagles ranked first in each EPA per designed keep on offense and EPA allowed per designed keep on protection. Philadelphia dominates within the floor sport on either side of the ball. On offense, rush yards over expectation runner-up Barkley (plus-549) and quarterback Jalen Hurts (together with all these tush push conversions) paved the way. On protection, linebackers Nakobe Dean and Zack Baun each rank within the prime seven amongst linebackers in run cease win fee. — Walder

Heat examine ranking: 8. Everything is rosy in Philadelphia, as long as Hurts is able to come out of the concussion protocol and play subsequent week. And if he cannot, Tanner McKee in all probability has a playoff win in him. — Solak

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Odds to win Super Bowl: +3000

First sport outlook: The Buccaneers made the playoffs for the fifth straight season and can begin by internet hosting the No. 6-seeded Commanders on Sunday (8 p.m. ET, Fox). This is one other rematch of a season opener, as Tampa Bay cruised previous Washington 37-20 at Raymond James Stadium. This is the fourth straight yr the Bucs have hosted a wild-card sport, as they beat the Eagles 32-9 on this spot final season. — ESPN

Reason for hope: A flexible, high-powered offense. The Bucs are averaging 28.6 offensive factors — fourth most within the league and third most in franchise historical past, trailing solely the Tom Brady-led Super Bowl workforce in 2020 and one other Brady-led workforce in 2021. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has 41 landing passes, tied for second within the NFL. Mayfield additionally has the third-highest completion proportion (71.4%) and third-most passing yards (4,500). And Tampa Bay is averaging 149.2 speeding yards, the fourth most within the league.

Reason for concern: The protection has struggled with well being and consistency. It has hardly ever had a wholesome squad this season, particularly within the secondary. While the Buccaneers have given up solely 17.0 factors per sport since their Week 11 bye — second finest within the league — solely a type of opponents had a profitable report. Over the course of the season, Tampa Bay has allowed 249.3 passing yards per sport, the fourth most within the league. — Jenna Laine

Stat to know: The Buccaneers recorded extra YAC over expectation (plus-498) than another workforce this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. NGS outputs an anticipated variety of yards after the catch primarily based on the positioning, pace and path of all 22 gamers on the sector when the catch is made. And the Bucs have 4 gamers with at the least 90 YAC over expectation: RB Bucky Irving (123), WR Chris Godwin (112), RB Rachaad White (99) and TE Cade Otton (90). YAC accounted for 54% of Tampa Bay’s receiving yards, the seventh most within the league. — Walder

Heat examine ranking: 2. It took a a lot bigger effort to beat the Saints in Week 18 than anticipated, and that go protection is the perpetrator — however Mayfield had one other shaky sport, too. The Buccaneers are within the huge dance by the pores and skin of their tooth. — Solak

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Odds to win Super Bowl: +3500

First sport outlook: The Rams will make their second straight playoff look and sixth in Sean McVay’s eight seasons as head coach after they host the Vikings on Monday (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN/ESPN+). Los Angeles gave the Vikings one in all their three losses this season, defeating Minnesota 30-20 in Week 7 at SoFi Stadium. — ESPN

Reason for hope: Drastic defensive enchancment. The Rams’ protection gave up two touchdowns in Weeks 15 by 17 because it made a playoff push after a 1-4 begin. After permitting a mean of 23.6 factors in its first 13 video games, Los Angeles allowed 24 complete within the three video games previous to clinching the NFC West. An enormous cause for the development is the play of its defensive entrance, together with first-round decide Jared Verse, who was named to the Pro Bowl because the Rams’ lone consultant.

Reason for concern: An extraordinarily inconsistent offense. After scoring 44 factors towards the Bills in Week 14, the Rams’ offense scored that mixed complete in Weeks 15 by 17. Los Angeles has particularly struggled within the first quarter this season, failing to attain a landing in 13 of its 16 video games through which quarterback Matthew Stafford and the beginning offense performed. The Rams have averaged 21.6 factors per sport this season, good for less than twentieth within the NFL. — Sarah Barshop

Stat to know: Wide receiver Puka Nacua has a 40% goal fee. Nacua is within the midst of a historic season … however since he missed six video games, the totals aren’t gaudy. But the actual fact he will get the ball thrown to him 40% of the time he runs a route is ridiculous. That’s the very best goal fee for a participant with at the least 200 routes run in a season since at the least 2007 — way back to ESPN’s route information extends. Nacua’s 3.7 yards per route run rank third in that span (behind Tyreek Hill in 2023 and Steve Smith Sr. in 2008), too. — Walder

Heat examine ranking: 4. The final aggressive video games we noticed the Rams play had been 12-point, 19-point and 13-point outings towards non-elite defensives — so I’m nervous. But they had been all wins with good defensive performances from Chris Shula’s younger group — so I’m not too nervous. — Solak

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Odds to win Super Bowl: +800

First sport outlook: The Vikings will play on the Rams within the wild-card spherical on Monday (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN/ESPN+) after falling to the Lions on Sunday evening. The solely non-Detroit loss the Vikings have suffered this season got here at SoFi Stadium, because the Rams defeated Minnesota 30-20 in Week 7. These groups have not performed within the postseason because the 1999 divisional spherical, when the then-St. Louis Rams outscored the Vikings 49-37 on their approach to a Super Bowl crown. — ESPN

Reason for hope: Balance. The Vikings can win in a wide range of methods, as their offense and protection every rank among the many NFL’s prime 10 in scoring. That will increase the variety of pathways they will journey to a playoff win. It might come through a giant passing day from quarterback Sam Darnold to receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Or the protection might carry the workforce with a sequence of well-timed takeaways, after tying for first within the league with 33. In different phrases, it will take an all-22 effort from an opponent to knock Minnesota from the postseason.

Reason for concern: The Vikings are 9-1 in one-score video games for a number of causes, together with well-timed area targets from Will Reichard and John Parker Romo, who served as a four-game harm substitute. Reichard opened the season by changing his first 14 area objective makes an attempt earlier than struggling a quadriceps harm. Since then, Reichard has made 10 of 16 kicks. The Vikings nonetheless have full confidence in Reichard and do not imagine that he’s having any lingering results from his harm. But taking a rookie kicker into the playoffs could be nerve-wracking, particularly when he enters the postseason in a little bit of a hunch. — Kevin Seifert

Stat to know: Prior to Sunday evening, Darnold had a 4.8% completion proportion over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, second highest amongst quarterbacks. That quantity represents a dramatic enchancment. Entering this season, Darnold had a minus-2.0% profession completion proportion over expectation. Some of the change can probably be attributed to his sturdy vast receivers, but it surely’s additionally a illustration of higher accuracy. Darnold’s off-target fee dropped from 18% earlier than this season to 12% in 2024, regardless of throwing barely deeper passes this season in comparison with his previous. — Walder

Heat examine ranking: 7. The Vikings might have carried an ideal 10 had they overwhelmed the Lions on Sunday evening, however that is nonetheless a wonderful workforce on either side of the ball. Few groups have gained three straight playoff video games on the highway, but when anybody can do it, I’d again these Vikings. — Solak

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Odds to win Super Bowl: +3000

First sport outlook: The Commanders return to the playoffs for the primary time since 2020 after they play on the No. 3-seeded Buccaneers on Sunday (8 p.m. ET, Peacock). Tampa Bay was additionally Washington’s opponent the final time the franchise made the postseason, because the Tom Brady-led Buccaneers defeated the then-Washington Football Team within the wild-card spherical en path to a Super Bowl title. Washington is 1-2 towards the Buccaneers within the playoffs. — ESPN

Reason for hope: Quarterback Jayden Daniels. He will not win the MVP, however few gamers have been extra helpful to their workforce. Daniels has thrown for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns and rushed for 864 yards and 6 extra scores. He has a knack for large performs on the proper time and has led 4 game-winning drives, with three landing passes approaching the ultimate play from scrimmage. Daniels ranks second within the NFL with 12 landing passes within the fourth quarter and extra time.

Reason for concern: The run protection. Washington has the lowest-ranked run protection of any playoff workforce and solely two groups, playoff or in any other case, had been worse this season. Only two allowed extra yards per carry than the Commanders (4.8), too. Washington has fared higher of late, holding Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson to a mixed 20 carries and 35 yards within the second half throughout Weeks 16 and 17. But if a workforce with a prime quarterback can be in a position to run on the Commanders, it is going to be powerful for Washington to advance. — John Keim

Stat to know: Daniels recorded 59 complete EPA on designed runs and scrambles. That’s greater than another participant this season and reveals simply how vital Daniels’ speeding manufacturing has been to the Commanders. Twenty-six % of Washington’s third- and fourth-down conversions this season have come through QB run, which ranks third within the league behind the Eagles and Bills. But while you take away performs with one yard to go, the Commanders have used the quarterback run to transform 22% of their third and fourth downs, the very best mark within the NFL — Walder

Heat examine ranking: 3. Save for the last-second win over the Eagles in Week 16, the again half of the season has largely been shaky for the Commanders, and the Week 18 first-half flop from the beginning offense towards Dallas does little to assuage issues. — Solak

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Odds to win Super Bowl: +1600

First sport outlook: The Packers get an opportunity to settle the rating from their Brazilian season opener, as they may head to Philadelphia to play on the Eagles on Sunday (4:30 p.m. ET, Fox). The Packers had been in the same place final season, as they upset the NFC East champion Cowboys because the No. 7 seed within the wild-card spherical. Green Bay additionally gained its final playoff assembly between the groups, profitable in Philadelphia within the 2010 wild-card en path to the Super Bowl XLV title. — ESPN

Reason for hope: The Packers do two issues extraordinarily effectively — run the ball and pressure turnovers. The Packers are ranked within the prime 5 in each classes — speeding yards per sport (146.8) and complete takeaways (31). They have relied closely on Pro Bowl operating again Josh Jacobs to hold the load (1,329 speeding yards) and have one of many NFL’s interception leaders in security Xavier McKinney (seven). That’s a very good mixture for playoff success.

Reason for concern: The Packers have not overwhelmed most of the NFC’s playoff groups. They’re a mixed 0-5 towards the Eagles, Lions and Vikings. Their finest win got here on the NFC West champion Rams, however that was again in Week 5 when the Rams had been riddled with accidents, particularly on offense. “There’s a margin of error that’s razor skinny,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur mentioned, “and while you’re enjoying good groups, you bought to be higher.” — Rob Demovsky

Stat to know: Jordan Love ranks fifth in QBR with a 68.7. It has been a quiet climb for Love’s effectivity on a Packers workforce that has leaned on the bottom sport this season. But after starting the season with six consecutive video games with at the least one interception, Love hasn’t thrown one previously seven. Since Week 12, Love has the very best QBR (83.0) within the NFL. It’s much like final season, when Love additionally had the very best QBR within the league from Week 12 on. — Walder

Heat examine ranking: 2. Green Bay was proper to play for the sixth seed in Week 18, however leaving the sport with injuries to Christian Watson and Love is worrisome. Scary occasions in Green Bay till we get extra information. — Solak