The Phillies are reportedly including outfielder Max Kepler on a one-year, $10MM contract. The settlement is pending a bodily and has not been introduced by the group. Philadelphia has a gap on the 40-man roster and won’t have to make a corresponding transfer. Kepler is represented by VC Sports Group.
Kepler adjustments uniforms for the primary time in his profession. The German-born outfielder had spent a decade and a half with the Minnesota group. He signed with the Twins as a teen and reached the large leagues late within the 2015 season. Kepler appeared in elements of 10 large league campaigns with Minnesota, stretching past the six-year management window after signing a $35MM extension in February 2019.
For most of that run, Kepler was an above-average proper fielder. He appeared as if he would possibly on the cusp of stardom after a 36-homer displaying in 2019, however that proved to be an outlier in a season that was performed with the juiced ball. Outside of that 12 months, Kepler has sometimes been a 15-20 homer menace with respectable on-base abilities.
Kepler, 32 in February, is coming off his least productive season. He battled accidents in each knees and solely appeared in 105 video games. Kepler was restricted to a career-low eight dwelling runs whereas posting a middling .253/.302/.380 line throughout 399 plate appearances. The free passes plummeted alongside the facility. Kepler walked at a career-low 5.5% clip, posting his lowest on-base proportion within the course of.
The Phillies are hoping {that a} wholesome offseason might permit him to return to his prior type. Kepler had one in all his greatest years as lately as 2023. He hit .260/.332/.484 with 24 longballs (the second most of his profession) throughout 491 plate appearances that season. Kepler set private highs in common exit velocity (91.9 MPH) and arduous contact proportion (47.6%). His arduous contact price dropped by 11 factors this 12 months, suggesting that he was taking part in at lower than full power.
Much of Kepler’s diminished manufacturing got here late within the season. He carried a league common .256/.309/.394 slash line into the All-Star Break. That dropped to .246/.287/.352 within the second half. The Twins resisted placing him on the IL for some time as they tried to hold onto a Wild Card berth, however his numbers tanked up to now in August that he needed to land on the shelf. Minnesota’s September collapse meant that he was unable to return for a potential postseason push.
While it ended on a down observe, Kepler had a productive run within the Twin Cities. He appeared in additional than 1000 video games, hitting .237/.318/.429 with 161 homers and simply over 500 runs batted in. There wasn’t a lot doubt that Minnesota would go in one other route this offseason, although. Ownership isn’t giving the entrance workplace a lot monetary leeway, so an eight-figure contract to retain Kepler after an injury-plagued season was by no means within the playing cards.
At his peak, Kepler was one of many sport’s greatest defensive proper fielders. If not for sharing the Target Field outfield with Byron Buxton, he most likely would’ve gotten extra constant run in middle discipline early in his profession. Kepler’s defensive grades are nonetheless strong however not as sturdy as they’d been in his 20s. Defensive Runs Saved graded him as a league common proper fielder in just a little over 800 innings this previous season. Statcast credited him with two runs above common.
Better well being might assist him rebound on protection as nicely. Kepler fell under league common in Statcast’s dash velocity measurement for the primary time. That’s not a shock contemplating he was taking part in by way of knee ache. On each side of the ball, the Phillies are hoping that this 12 months was a health-related blip slightly than the signal of a pointy decline in his early 30s.
Kepler figures to play principally left discipline at Citizens Bank Park. That’s a place he’s by no means performed within the majors, although most proper fielders can kick over to the alternative nook with out a lot problem. Kepler hasn’t began a recreation in middle discipline since 2021, so he’s most likely not more than an emergency choice there. Johan Rojas and Brandon Marsh are every likelier to deal with middle discipline work.
While there shouldn’t be a lot problem concerning the positional transition, Kepler’s handedness makes him one thing of an odd match. The Phils had sought to discover a rotational outfielder who might lower into the taking part in time for Rojas and/or Marsh. A right-handed hitter would have been probably the most easy answer, permitting the Phils to protect Marsh from lefty pitching. Philadelphia hoped Austin Hays would tackle that as a deadline pickup, however he spent most of his tenure on the injured record and was non-tendered final month.
Kepler doesn’t match that want. Like most left-handed hitters, he’s a lot better towards righties. Kepler has a profession .243/.326/.452 line versus right-handers. He’s a .221/.292/.363 hitter in additional than 1000 plate appearances towards southpaws. If the Phils are going to platoon Marsh, he’d most likely pair with the righty-hitting Rojas in middle discipline. That’d put the onus on Kepler to remain wholesome sufficient to play commonly in left discipline.
Marsh might at all times transfer again to left if Kepler lands on the IL, but that’d go away the Phillies with the identical middling outfield upon which they’re making an attempt to improve. They’d actually love to dump the remaining two years and $40MM on the Nick Castellanos deal, which might allow them to place Kepler in proper discipline and add one other outfield bat. Shedding a notable chunk of the Castellanos cash is way simpler stated than performed after he hit .254/.311/.431 this 12 months.
It appears the Phils most popular the worth level on Kepler over the asking worth for the highest righty-hitting outfielders obtainable. Matt Gelb of the Athletic stories that Philadelphia had proven curiosity in Teoscar Hernández however apparently balked on the ask. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported earlier this week that Hernández was on the lookout for a three-year deal exceeding $60MM.
Signing Kepler pushes the Phils’ wage commitments to roughly $280MM, in response to the RosterResource calculations. They’re as much as $299MM in aggressive steadiness tax obligations. The Phils went into the offseason with their CBT quantity already into the third tier of penalization. They’ve paid the tax in three consecutive seasons, so that they’re topic to the best set of escalator surcharges. Their spending between $281MM and $301MM is taxed at a 95% clip, that means they’re on the hook for $9.5MM in taxes on Kepler. This represents a near-$20MM general dedication on possession’s half.
Once they transcend the $301MM mark, they’ll be taxed on the most 110% price on additional spending. The Phillies had been a digital lock to exceed the third tier no matter whether or not they signed Kepler. That’ll drop their high draft alternative in 2026 by ten spots (except they miss the playoffs and draw into the highest six within the lottery). Signing Kepler and Jordan Romano to one-year offers addresses two of their greatest questions on comparatively inexpensive phrases.
Todd Zolecki and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported Kepler and the Phillies had been progressing on a one-year contract. ESPN’s Jeff Passan confirmed the settlement and reported the $10MM wage. Image courtesy of Imagn.
