Predicting the College Football Playoff rankings: It’s Alabama vs. SMU, Miami and the ACC

The College Football Playoff bracket was once more flipped on its head in Rivalry Week. So what is going to the penultimate choice committee rankings appear to be Tuesday evening?

You can’t begin a dialog in regards to the rankings with out mentioning Ohio State. The Buckeyes, ranked No. 2 final week, misplaced to rival Michigan for the fourth consecutive yr, this time as a three-touchdown favourite. That’s not solely going to shake up the highest of the Playoff rankings this week, however its ripples will probably be felt in convention championship weekend, as Penn State is now within the Big Ten Championship Game in opposition to Oregon. So how far will Ohio State fall? Are the Buckeyes in line to host a house sport within the first spherical? Tuesday’s rankings will give us a clearer image.

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Ohio State wasn’t the one top-10 group to be upset, both. No. 6 Miami blew a 21-0 lead on the street at Syracuse and is now in jeopardy of lacking the Playoff, having already price itself a spot within the ACC title sport (sending Clemson to Charlotte as a substitute). The large query will probably be if Miami (10-2) is ranked forward of Alabama (9-3), because the at-large bids are filling up and that’s probably the place the bubble line will probably be drawn. It’s by no means a certainty till the bracket is ready, but when the Hurricanes fall behind Alabama, their odds of constructing the Playoff are slim.

Here’s what my mannequin is predicting the rankings will probably be Tuesday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN):

Next 5: Duke, Tulane, Texas A&M, Iowa State, LSU

Texas, Penn State and Notre Dame ought to all transfer up after Ohio State’s loss. Similar to final week, I wouldn’t be shocked if the committee places Notre Dame over Penn State. I wouldn’t agree with it — and neither would my mannequin — however the committee may use the Irish’s 14-point win at USC as justification. Penn State beat USC by three in additional time earlier within the yr.

Does Ohio State fall to No. 5? Or will or not it’s behind Georgia? Some are making the argument for the Buckeyes to fall under Tennessee, like they did within the AP ballot, however that’s an incorrect one, for my part. Ohio State has two higher wins within the committee’s eyes in opposition to Penn State and Indiana and the harder schedule. People may not prefer it, however Ohio State continues to be in a very good place to host a Playoff sport regardless of the loss to Michigan. In truth, I’d be shocked if that wasn’t the case.

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Perhaps probably the most uncertainty this week includes the ACC title sport and the ultimate at-large bid. SMU beating Clemson makes issues fairly easy, because the Mustangs would get an automated bid and first-round bye and Clemson could be out. However, if SMU loses, Clemson is in place to get an automated bid and SMU would then be pitted in opposition to, you guessed it, Alabama for the final remaining spot, if the Tide are certainly forward of Miami.

I don’t suppose SMU ought to be penalized too harshly for a convention championship sport loss, however contemplating how powerful Alabama’s schedule is, particularly in comparison with SMU’s, the Crimson Tide are going to be within the dialog. A whole lot of issues will issue into the dialogue, in fact. If SMU had been to lose by a number of scores, I feel that probably knocks it out. If it’s an in depth sport, perhaps that retains the Mustangs in. But there’s the additionally the truth that Alabama has the title recognition and hails from the SEC.

Is {that a} truthful course of? Not essentially. Alabama would once more profit from leaping a group after the convention championship sport like final yr over Florida State. But the resumes being so shut will make this a debate, and if I needed to guess, Alabama would get the advantage of the doubt.

As for the remainder of the bracket, there’s a probability that the Big 12 champion may keep forward of Clemson, if it wins the ACC title, which might push the Tigers down the seeding checklist. With the AAC probably out, the winner of the Mountain West will get a spot within the Playoff — and Boise State has a very good shot on the No. 3 seed if Clemson prevails within the ACC.

(Top illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; images: Brian Bahr, James Gilbert, Joe Robbins / Getty Images)