Home World News Syria knowledgeable explains that Assad forces lack funds, motivation, weapons

Syria knowledgeable explains that Assad forces lack funds, motivation, weapons

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Syria has witnessed a dramatic escalation in current days as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Salafi-jihadi group led by Abu Mohammad al-Julani, launched an sudden and extremely efficient offensive in opposition to the Syrian Arab Army. 

Jonathan Spyer, director of analysis on the Middle East Forum and a columnist for The Jerusalem Post, defined to Zvika Klein and Tamar Uriel-Beeri throughout The Jerusalem Post Podcast, that Syria has been divided into three distinct areas of management over the previous half-decade. “The Assad regime controls round 60% of the nation, together with Damascus and the western coastal space. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led coalition backed by the United States, maintain about 30% east of the Euphrates River. The remaining 10% within the northwest is dwelling to remnants of the Sunni Arab and Islamist rise up,” Spyer mentioned.

The northwest enclave is additional divided. The northern half is beneath the Turkish-backed Syrian Interim Government and its armed forces, the Syrian National Army, whereas the southern part, significantly Idlib province, is ruled by the Syrian Salvation Government beneath HTS.

“Although HTS is formally designated as a terror group by Turkey, it operates in cooperation with Ankara in follow,” Spyer added.

HTS’s current offensive coincides with a interval of serious weak spot for the Assad regime and its allies. Spyer attributed this to a number of elements, together with Iran’s preoccupation with Israeli strikes and Hezbollah’s substantial losses.

Smoke billows close to residential buildings in an image taken from a drone in Aleppo, Syria December 3, 2024. (credit score: REUTERS/Mahmoud Hasano TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)

“Hezbollah has suffered devastating losses in current months, with estimates ranging between 3,500 and 4,000 fighters killed. Meanwhile, Russia is deeply engaged within the conflict in Ukraine, the place hundreds of its troops are dying weekly,” Spyer defined.

The offensive additionally highlighted the dire state of Assad’s forces. “Assad’s military is by far the weakest hyperlink within the Iran-led axis. It’s underfunded, under-equipped, and staffed by conscripts with no motivation, surviving on moldy potatoes and tomatoes. HTS acknowledged this as the proper alternative to strike,” Spyer mentioned.

The offensive has introduced consideration to Abu Mohammad al-Julani, HTS’s chief, whom Spyer described as “remarkably adaptable.”

“Julani’s profession trajectory is likely one of the most outstanding outcomes of the Syrian Civil War. Despite originating from essentially the most excessive wing of Salafi-jihadism, he has managed to create a tightly ruled space in northwest Syria,” Spyer mentioned.


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However, Spyer warned in opposition to misinterpreting Julani’s pragmatism as moderation. “It can be incorrect to imagine {that a} succesful jihadi chief has given up on jihad. Julani just isn’t content material to easily be the mayor of Idlib, even when he has confirmed to be an efficient one,” he mentioned.

Spyer added that Julani’s means to navigate the complexities of Syria’s conflict has stored him alive, not like lots of his contemporaries within the Salafi-jihadi motion.

Regional and international implications

Spyer dismissed conspiracy theories suggesting coordination between HTS and Israel. “HTS possible acknowledged that Hezbollah, Iran, and the Assad regime had been distracted, creating an ideal storm for his or her offensive,” he mentioned.

When requested about Israel’s perspective, Spyer highlighted the significance of sustaining a steadiness of energy. “It wouldn’t be good for Israel or the West if both aspect—Assad or HTS—achieved complete victory. A resurgent Assad regime backed by Iran and Hezbollah, or a Salafi-jihadi state on Israel’s borders, can be disastrous,” Spye defined.

He added that Israel is unlikely to intervene immediately. “Israel’s palms are full with its personal safety challenges. Letting either side weaken one another just isn’t essentially a foul end result,” Spyer famous.

As HTS advances, issues have grown over the destiny of minority communities in its path. “HTS’s file with non-Muslim and non-Arab populations, reminiscent of Kurds and Christians, just isn’t good. This is one thing the West wants to handle,” Spyer mentioned.

While worldwide consideration is basically centered on different areas of the Middle East, Spyer cautioned in opposition to ignoring the potential humanitarian disaster in Syria. “Large Kurdish and Christian populations are in danger, and their security should be a precedence for Western powers,” he mentioned.

“The Syrian battle is a microcosm of broader regional tensions, with competing powers vying for affect in a posh and ever-changing panorama,” Spyer concluded.

To contact us, please attain out at podcast@jpost.com. This podcast is out there on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and extra.





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