Geopolitics can typically be greatest understood as an equilibrium — of expectations, of power and of capabilities. When one thing upsets that steadiness, it will possibly result in chaos.
That’s been a frequent theme of this column over the previous few months, and the examples preserve including up. It’s now clear that numerous “frozen conflicts” — wars that had grow to be caught in stalemates for years as a result of neither facet was sturdy sufficient to make substantial positive aspects — have abruptly heated up.
Five years in the past, there have been frozen conflicts in japanese Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon. All have since flared into open conflicts that shattered the standing quos.
These conflicts are all totally different, with their very own separate causes. But additionally they share most of the similar gamers, which implies that ripple results of occasions like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Hamas’s assault on Israel at the moment are being felt around the globe.
The most notable current instance is Syria, the place the frozen civil warfare reignited in dramatic vogue when the insurgent group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham launched a shock assault final week, capturing a big swath of territory, as seen on this map by my colleague Samuel Granados:
The rebels have taken Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest metropolis, and Hama, a longtime authorities stronghold. They are pushing south towards the main metropolis of Homs, and will even threaten the capital of Damascus.
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