People maintain a banner that includes Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as members of the Syrian group and supporters collect in Istanbul to have a good time the autumn of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad within the face of an offensive by Islamist-led rebels, on Dec. 8.
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Yasin Akgul/AFP by way of Getty Images
ISTANBUL — As the world watches Syria grapple with the aftermath of Bashar al-Assad’s brutal regime and the formation of a brand new authorities, one nation has emerged as having nice affect over the brand new Syria: its neighbor to the north, Turkey.
In a press convention on Monday, President-elect Donald Trump stated he believed that Turkey was behind Assad’s downfall.
“Turkey did an unfriendly takeover with out a number of lives being misplaced,” Trump stated. “I feel Turkey goes to carry the important thing to Syria.”
The Turkish authorities has not publicly commented on Trump’s remarks.
What was Turkey’s position within the Syrian civil battle?
Before Syria’s civil battle erupted virtually 14 years in the past, Turkey loved steady relations with the nation. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Assad received alongside nicely, to the extent that their households even vacationed collectively as soon as. But after Assad’s brutal crackdown on peaceable protesters in 2011, Erdogan lower ties and put his intelligence and navy assets behind insurgent teams combating Assad.
“Turkey’s aim was, after all, in any respect prices unseating Bashar al-Assad,” stated political analyst Soli Ozel, who teaches at Kadir Has University in Istanbul.
Turkey, a NATO member that shares a protracted southern border with Syria, opened its doorways to the most important variety of Syrian refugees of any nation, in keeping with United Nations information — peaking at greater than 3.7 million in 2021 — lots of whom had been linked with opposition teams and beneath menace from the Assad regime.
Then-Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (left) talks with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s prime minister on the time, throughout a gathering in Istanbul on June 7, 2010.
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Osman Orsal/Pool/AFP by way of Getty Images
But by 2018, as Assad gave the impression to be profitable the civil battle — with the assistance of Russia, Iran and Iranian-backed Lebanese militia Hezbollah — Turkey’s place got here with a worth. It confronted home and financial difficulties, with the general public blaming the Syrian refugees. And the nation additionally confronted safety threats alongside its border with Syria.
Before the insurgent teams moved on Assad’s military in late November, Turkey’s objectives had shifted to making sure that insurgent enclaves like Idlib in Syria’s north had been steady, so as to stop extra refugee inflow into Turkey, in keeping with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.
“In Idlib, round 4 million Syrians lived beneath the management of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham,” he stated in an interview Sunday with Saudi Arabia’s Al-Hadath TV, referring to the Islamist group, also referred to as HTS, that led fighters who toppled Assad and is now main Syria. “There was at all times a threat of those individuals coming to Turkey throughout instances of disaster.”
He added, “To stop these crises and keep stability, now we have remained in coordination with these teams, and thru this course of, we had the chance to get to know them.”
In the months earlier than the shock insurgent takeover of Assad-controlled areas, the Turkish authorities was beneath heavy home stress to resolve the refugee disaster. Opposition politicians noticed the federal government’s help of insurgent teams as a strategic mistake. Erdogan’s administration had even begun to discover the opportunity of mending ties with Assad, but it surely by no means got here to fruition.
Now, after greater than a decade, there is a sense of vindication in Ankara, Turkey’s capital, that it wasn’t all for nothing.
“Lots of people replicate on this within the sense that Turkey is a winner. It has proximity, it has affect. It has troops greater than the rest,” Ozel stated.
What sort of affect will Turkey have on the brand new Syrian management?
Turkey is already visibly lively in Syria. The Turkish Embassy in Damascus is up and operating. And Turkey’s intelligence chief paid a go to to Damascus final week and met with the chief of HTS, Ahmed al-Sharaa — previously identified by his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani — who’s now the de facto chief of the brand new Syrian administration.
In his interview with Al Hadath TV, Fidan stated that Turkey has been sending messages from Western and regional nations to the brand new Syrian management in an effort to reasonable HTS. The group fashioned as an affiliate of al-Qaida in 2011. Turkey, the United States and the United Nations Security Council have designated HTS as a terrorist group. But since defeating Assad, the group has portrayed itself as extra reasonable and inclusive of different religions and minorities, with encouragement from the Turkish authorities.
“There had been sure rules that the majority events appeared to agree on. These embrace stopping terrorist organizations from benefiting from Damascus within the new period, guaranteeing good therapy of minorities, particularly Christians, Kurds, Alevis and Turkmen, and establishing an inclusive authorities,” Fidan stated.
In an interview with Turkish newspaper Yeni Safak on Wednesday, HTS chief Sharaa stated there could be “strategic relations” between the 2 nations.
“Of the various nations Syrians sought refuge in, Turkey welcomed them and revered them essentially the most. I hope that Syria will not neglect this kindness,” Sharaa stated.
He added that Syria’s insurgent takeover was a win for Turkey: “This victory is just not solely the victory of the Syrian individuals but in addition of the Turkish individuals.”
Ultimately, analysts say, Turkey would not management HTS and plenty of questions stay about what the brand new Syrian administration will form as much as be. These are potential challenges for the Turkish authorities, in keeping with Ozel.
“If HTS positive aspects extra energy, how way more amenable is it going to be to Turkey’s recommendations, suggestions? That stays to be seen,” Ozel stated.
But specialists say the brand new Syrian leaders should depend on Turkey to assist them set up public order, type establishments and supply assets, like water and electrical energy. With a lot of Syria destroyed, Turkish development corporations are more likely to search a lead position in reconstruction.
“We belief that Turkey will switch its expertise in financial improvement to Syria,” Sharaa instructed Yeni Safak newspaper.
Then there may be the matter of the Syrian refugees in Turkey. Many of them now converse Turkish fluently and have enterprise relations and different ties with Turkey, which may present extra technique of affect for the Turkish authorities, ought to they return to Syria.
What are Turkey’s objectives in Syria now?
Laying out their objectives in latest media interviews, senior Turkish officers have stated their first precedence is to dismantle the Kurdish fighter group in Syria often called the YPG.
But the YPG is a big a part of a Kurdish coalition — the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) — that the United States supplied with weapons to assist struggle towards the Islamic State group.
Turkey says the YPG is the Syrian arm of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a separatist group that has fought Turkey for over 4 a long time and is listed as a terrorist group by Turkey and the U.S.
Turkish officers stated they’re asking the U.S. to reassess its place with the YPG.
So far, U.S. officers haven’t signaled any adjustments to their coverage of supporting the Kurdish coalition.
On Tuesday, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller stated a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Turkey and the Kurdish coalition forces in Manbij has been prolonged till the tip of the week.
Miller stated the U.S. understands Turkey has “legit considerations” about among the fighters in Syria and is speaking to Turkish authorities “to discover a path ahead.”
Turkish officers stated their different goal is the formation of a steady and united Syria.
Turkish gendarmerie test the paperwork of Syrian households dwelling in Turkey on the Cilvegozu border gate as they wait to cross into Syria, on Dec. 13, after Syrian rebels ousted President Bashar al-Assad.
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Burak Kara/Getty Images
“We need each a civil and democratic state,” Foreign Minister Fidan stated.
Turkey’s protection minister additionally supplied navy help and coaching to the brand new leaders of Syria.
“I feel Turkey will probably be there to assist with the brand new administration that will probably be fashioned there,” stated Mustafa Kibaroglu, director of graduate research in political science and worldwide relations at MEF University in Istanbul. “Because what occurs there has a direct bearing on Turkish prosperity, safety, all the pieces, so we can not simply flip a blind eye.”
Will Turkey play a much bigger position within the area as nicely?
Analysts count on Turkey to be influential within the Middle East, however to not search hegemony in the best way that Iran has with its proxies Hezbollah in Syria and Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.
Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan appeared to ship a message to Middle Eastern leaders that outlined Turkey’s imaginative and prescient for the area.
“By standing shoulder to shoulder, we should set up our personal pursuits and order within the area,” Fidan stated within the TV interview on Sunday.
“We don’t need Iranian domination within the area, nor do we wish Turkish or Arab domination,” he added.
Kibaroglu, of MEF University’s graduate faculty, agrees. “We have seen how issues could flip up within the unfavourable sense for individuals who attempt to dominate the area,” he stated. “We have seen the position Iran performed particularly since Nineteen Nineties and now they needed to withdraw their troops and paramilitaries and proxies to an awesome extent.”
Analysts say among the Turkish public is cautious of deeper involvement within the Middle East.
“My hunch is that the Turkish safety elites have realized their classes from the ancient times when that [domination] was very a lot on their agenda,” Ozel stated. “Turkey may be very influential as an actor, however inside limits. And if it manages the scenario nicely, it should profit closely.”
