The UFC’s plan was to make a powerful first impression in 2025 by placing its finest foot ahead. The 12 months’s pay-per-view schedule would start with a two-title-fight card headlined by MMA’s finest fighter.
So a lot for one of the best laid plans.
Islam Makhachev, No. 1 within the ESPN pound-for-pound rankings, will nonetheless defend his light-weight championship in the principle occasion of UFC 311 on Saturday (10 p.m. ET, ESPN+ PPV). But as a substitute of preventing a rematch with Arman Tsarukyan, Makhachev (26-1) will as a substitute face a late substitute, Renato Moicano, after Tsarukyan injured his back on Thursday night.
This is a big downgrade in problem for Makhachev, who has gained 14 fights in a row and is the longest-reigning present champion within the UFC. Tsarukyan, on a 9-1 run since a unanimous choice loss to Makhachev in his UFC debut in 2019, is No. 2 within the ESPN light-weight rankings, proper behind Makhachev. Moicano (20-5-1) is approach down at No. 7.
Makhachev already was a betting favourite to retain his crown, however by Friday afternoon his odds had ballooned to 13-to-1 per ESPN BET.
This is why the UFC likes to top-load its pay-per-views with a number of title fights. Then once more, the co-main occasion between males’s bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili and 18-0 Umar Nurmagomedov gives a unique kind of twist within the betting odds.
Dvalishvili (18-4) might be placing his belt on the road as a +230 underdog (as of Friday), regardless of being on an 11-fight profitable streak. How unusual are these odds? Not unprecedented, however shut. Only one earlier UFC champ — strawweight Carla Esparza (+280), defending in opposition to Zhang Weili in 2022 — has been a +250 or longer underdog within the 18 years that ESPN Research has been monitoring odds. (That doesn’t rely title defenses in opposition to interim champs or rematches of upset dethronings.)
Beyond the 2 title fights, UFC 311 additionally includes a conflict of former champions, as Jiří Procházka (30-5-1) and Jamahal Hill (12-2) jostle for place amongst gentle heavyweight contenders. Both are angling for a return to the highest of the mountain, however there’s room for only one. Who’ll or not it’s?
Those three fights stand above all others on this weekend’s card. But how does the struggle lineup as an entire stack up? Here’s a rundown.
Good issues occur in threes
Men’s bantamweight championship: Merab Dvalishvili (c) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
Nurmagomedov has fought six occasions within the UFC and has by no means been taken down. Only two of his opponents have even tried, nevertheless, they usually had been a mixed 0 for 3. So let’s simply say his takedown protection is basically untested — outdoors of a coaching gymnasium filled with elite Dagestani wrestlers. Nurmagomedov’s coaching camp preparation might be put to the check by Dvalishvili, who has takedowns in all however certainly one of his 13 journeys contained in the Octagon and has hit double figures 4 occasions. One of these fights was in 2023 in opposition to former champ Petr Yan, who surrendered 11 takedowns — on 49 tries! Yes, “The Machine” is relentless.
However, if a fighter is piling up double-figure takedowns in three- and even five-round bouts, meaning his opponents handle to climb again to their toes rather a lot. No doubt Nurmagomedov has been smothered day by day in camp by his top-heavy teammates, all so he can work his approach again to standing on this struggle and put his pinpoint-accurate hanging to good use.
Title bout by the numbers
1,950: Strikes landed within the UFC by Dvalishvili, probably the most in bantamweight historical past.
72: Takedowns for Dvalishvili in UFC bantamweight fights, most ever within the division. His general UFC complete of 85, which incorporates one catchweight struggle, places him 5 behind all-time chief Georges St-Pierre.
63.1: Significant hanging accuracy share for Nurmagomedov, one of the best ever amongst UFC 135-pounders.
Light heavyweight: Jiří Procházka vs. Jamahal Hill
When Hill final fought in April, Alex Pereira knocked him out. When Procházka final fought in June, Pereira additionally knocked him out — for the second time in lower than a 12 months. Both of those former champions have set their sights on one other date with the present champ, they usually’ve talked about that greater than they’ve dwelled on this struggle with one another. But the street to Pereira leads by means of this stepping stone, so there is not any use getting forward of oneself.
Both males are confirmed finishers, however Procházka is aware of no different approach than hunt-’em-down abandon, with 26 knockouts and three submissions amongst his 30 wins. His recklessness didn’t serve him nicely in his losses to Pereira, but it surely may draw the hubris-laden Hill out of his sometimes disciplined strategy and into an ill-advised brawl. It ought to be enjoyable discovering out.
Lightweight championship: Islam Makhachev (c) vs. Renato Moicano
This foremost occasion belongs within the high tier of UFC 311 solely as a result of it options the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter within the sport. That, in itself, is considerably of a uncommon deal with for followers.
Even along with his place on the high of the rankings and his stardom-by-association Khabib Nurmagomedov connection, Makhachev does not have fairly the aura of the person proper under him within the pound-for-pound hierarchy, Alex Pereira. The gentle heavyweight champ has boosted his profile in an enormous approach by placing on present after eye-opening present in fast succession. Makhachev, against this, fought solely as soon as final 12 months and twice in 2023. He makes an impression each time, although, so whereas a late change of opponent douses the keenness, it is all the time enjoyable watching one of the best within the recreation go to work.
The odds are stacked as excessive as Kilimanjaro in opposition to Moicano, however he has gained 4 in a row, most just lately a TKO of Benoît Saint Denis in September. Can he make this some of the surprising nights within the sport’s historical past?
Title bout by the numbers
13: Consecutive light-weight wins for Makhachev, the longest streak in division historical past. His general win streak of 14 — together with a catchweight bout — places him third in UFC historical past, behind Anderson Silva (16) and Kamaru Usman (15).
60.3: Significant strike accuracy share of Makhachev, one of the best ever amongst UFC lightweights.
0-16: Combined document of fighters 35 or older in UFC light-weight title bouts. Do I even must let you know how outdated Moicano is?
Digging just a little deeper for gems
Middleweight: Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder
Holland is all the time entertaining — except you are locked within the Octagon with him and he is speaking, speaking, speaking. De Ridder, competing within the UFC for simply the second time, certainly by no means noticed (or heard) anybody resembling Holland throughout his 5 years with One Championship, the place he as soon as held the titles at gentle heavyweight and middleweight concurrently. Focus, Reinier, focus.
Men’s bantamweight: Payton Talbott vs. Raoni Barcelos
The 26-year-old Talbott is a scorching prospect, 3-0 within the UFC and 9-0 general, with seven knockouts. He earned his roster spot in 2023 in his solely struggle to go the gap, setting a “Dana White’s Contender Series” bantamweight document by touchdown 145 vital strikes in opposition to Reyes Cortez Jr. Barcelos has misplaced 4 of his final six fights, however is there a greater turnaround alternative than a date within the cage with a golden boy?
Heavyweight: Jailton Almeida vs. Serghei Spivac
Here’s a tip for preventing Almeida: Do not let him get his palms on you. Here’s a dose of actuality: It’s virtually inevitable. In his eight UFC fights, Almeida has spent 87.3% of his time controlling his opponent, probably the most by far in UFC historical past in any weight class. In reality, no different lively heavyweight has spent even half of his cage time in management. Spivac really ranks fourth amongst present heavies … at a paltry 37.2%.
Lightweight: Grant Dawson vs. Diego Ferreira
Ferreira has rotated his profession in a charming approach. After dropping three straight fights in 2021, he has gained his final two and been awarded efficiency of the evening bonuses each occasions. To make it three in a row, he must keep away from getting trapped beneath Dawson, who has spent 61.2% of his time as a UFC light-weight in high place, the best share ever within the division. Keeping a distance goes a good distance.
The remainder of the names … and numbers
Light heavyweight: Billy Elekana vs. Bogdan Guskov
0: Decision wins by Guskov (16-3), who has two submissions and 14 knockouts. He has 12 first-round finishes and has been to a 3rd spherical solely twice. Go seize a espresso, cageside judges.
Middleweight: Zachary Reese vs. Azamat Bekoev
4: First-minute finishes by Reese in 9 professional fights, together with a 20-second knockout of Julian Marquez final June for his first UFC win. Another (fast) espresso break for the judges?
Women’s bantamweight: Karol Rosa vs. Ailin Perez
2.22: Striking differential (strikes landed for each one absorbed) within the UFC by Rosa, one of the best in division historical past. Yes, that is the burden class as soon as dominated by the GOAT of ladies’s MMA, Amanda Nunes.
Men’s bantamweight: Rinya Nakamura vs. Muin Gafurov
6: Pro fights it took Nakamura to earn a UFC roster spot. Since then, he’s 3-0 contained in the Octagon. The 29-year-old began in MMA lower than 4 years in the past after profitable the under-23 wrestling world championship.
Men’s bantamweight: Ricky Turcios vs. Bernardo Sopaj
29: Season of “The Ultimate Fighter” on which Turcios gained the bantamweight match. Coached by Alexander Volkanovski, Turcios defeated teammate Brady Hiestand by cut up choice within the August 2021 finale.
Men’s flyweight: Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Clayton Carpenter
47: Percentage of Ulanbekov’s fights (8 of 17) that he has gained by submission. He trains with Makhachev underneath coach Khabib Nurmagomedov, which is all you should know in regards to the Dagestani’s floor recreation.
ESPN’s Andres Waters contributed to this text.
