Who are the winners and losers from Syria’s disaster?

The dramatic toppling of Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian regime by the hands of insurgent forces this weekend may have far-reaching penalties for the Middle Eastern nation, world alliances and markets, in accordance with analysts.

Over the previous fortnight, insurgent forces led by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham carried out a lightning-fast offensive throughout the nation, seizing key cities alongside the way in which. The faction lastly claimed the capital Damascus on the weekend, prompting President Bashar al-Assad to flee the nation and search refuge in Russia, in accordance with Russian state media stories.

The overthrow of Assad was greeted cautiously by Western nations who’re cautious of the potential for additional bloodshed and of an influence vacuum in Syria, if a chaotic and contested transition of management takes place.

A rustic riven with 13 years of brutal civil conflict Syria has seen competing factions — together with the terrorist group that types itself the Islamic State — struggle one another in addition to Assad’s pressure lately, elevating the potential for rival energy grabs.

For now, nevertheless, the autumn of the Assad dynasty after over 50 years in energy has extra quick world ramifications, with Russia and Iran seen as “losers” from the ousting of the Syrian dictator, whereas the U.S., Turkey and Israel are considered among the many principal beneficiaries from regime change.

“The fast collapse of the Assad regime in Damascus could have repercussions properly past Syria. The nice losers are Iran and Russia, with out whose assist Assad would have misplaced the virtually 14-year civil conflict way back,” Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, mentioned in evaluation Monday.

“Iran has possible misplaced its main path to ship weapons to the Hezbollah terror militia in Lebanon. Despite a possible energy vacuum in components of Syria for some time, the Middle East may ultimately be rather less unstable because of this,” Schmieding mentioned in emailed feedback.

Starting with the U.S., economists level out that the autumn of Assad, and the accompanying weakening of Russia and Iran after the lack of a key ally within the area, will give U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and Western powers a fine addition.

“The new actuality is when Donald Trump assumes workplace on January 20^th 2025 he will likely be dealing with a risk board the place the opposition appears massively weakened, and the way the U.S. holds most of the playing cards,” market strategist Bill Blain mentioned in emailed feedback Monday.

“That doesn’t suggest the world is way much less harmful – it is totally unclear what sort of new Syria would possibly emerge from Assad’s overthrow – however it looks like energy and the worldwide initiative might be shifting again to the West,” he added.

Assad’s downfall and the “de facto defeat” of Russia and Iran within the course of, Blain mentioned, has “large implications for markets by way of unwinding fears across the greenback’s pre-eminence, whereas growing the momentum that would develop behind Trump’s world commerce imaginative and prescient” — each by way of placing the U.S. and the U.S. greenback entrance and heart, he famous.

“The impact on sentiment might be immense by way of world confidence and redirected flows into U.S. belongings and commodities on rising development expectations,” Blain mentioned.

Europe may be a beneficiary of the regime change in Syria, if it means fewer displaced refugees coming into the area — a improvement that has fueled anti-immigrant sentiment and the rise of populist events lately.

The main quick geopolitical “winners” are Israel and Turkey, analysts additionally famous, with the previous seeing its regional nemesis Iran weakened additional, due to Assad’s downfall — whereas Ankara emerges as “probably the most influential international actor within the nation,” Wolfango Piccoli, co-president in danger consultancy Teneo, famous on Sunday.

“Turkey, which shares a 560 miles lengthy frontier with Syria, has been a principal backer of opposition teams aiming to topple Assad for the reason that outbreak of the civil conflict in 2011,” he mentioned in emailed feedback.

“Turkey is (for now) set to be the most important exterior beneficiary of Assad’s fall,” Piccoli mentioned, though he cautioned that Ankara will solely really feel the advantages of the regime change in Damascus “if no harmful vacuum of energy emerges and the facility is transferred comparatively peacefully any more.”

“In different phrases, Turkey stands to profit provided that the Assad regime is changed by a functioning authorities capable of face the daunting job of delivering stability to a various nation with competing factions that can want billions of {dollars} in help and investments to rebuild,” Piccoli mentioned.

“Unsurprisingly, Turkish authorities have urged Syrian opposition teams to unite following the autumn of the regime in Damascus whereas avoiding any triumphalist declare,” he famous.

Israel is seen as a beneficiary of Assad’s fall due to its influence on Iran, which has used Syria as a provide path to its proxy in Lebanon, the militant group Hezbollah. Israel has regarded to severely weaken this provide chain as a part of its navy marketing campaign in opposition to Iranian proxies in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.

In a Monday word, David Roche at Quantum Strategy described Assad’s fall as the primary main geopolitical plate shift that weakens “the Axis of Autocracies” together with Iran and Russia in a very long time.

“It doesn’t dispose of the Israel – Iran battle. But it strengthens the hand of the Israel and U.S. to proceed zapping Iran’s financial energy (which Trump will do with laborious sanctions to start with). Ultimately Iran’s nuclear ambitions will nonetheless should be handled militarily. But that comes later (finish 2025 2026?),” Roche mentioned.

The different most notable “loser” from Assad’s overthrow is his ally and backer Russia, which has helped prop up Assad’s regime for the reason that begin of the civil conflict. This time round, Moscow’s concentrate on the battle in Ukraine has restricted the quantity of navy help it was prepared and capable of give to Assad’s forces.

There’s little doubt that Russia will likely be involved over the quantity of a lot affect — and good will — it may well anticipate from a brand new management in Syria. Moscow has a vested curiosity in conserving the brand new authorities on facet because it operates an air base in Hmeimim, together with a naval base in Tartus that offers it entry to the Mediterranean Sea.

Rebel forces have given the Kremlin assurances that they might assure the security of Russian navy bases and diplomatic establishments in Syria, Reuters reported citing Russian information businesses, however Russia’s long-term navy presence within the nation is seen as removed from sure.

Timothy Ash, rising markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, described Assad’s ousting as a “large humiliation for Putin who has made lots of the truth that he by no means abandons his allies.”

“The limits of Russian navy energy have now been revealed — unable to struggle a number of wars, and nonetheless slowed down in Ukraine. Putin is struggling to hold on to the prized asset of the Tartus heat water port — and if he retains it, he might need needed to give Turkey concessions elsewhere,” Ash mentioned.

He additional famous that Putin “now goes into Ukraine peace talks from a place of weak spot,” including that developments in Syria make “a greater Ukrainian peace” extra possible.

As for Iran, strategist Ash mentioned Tehran’s misfortunes had simply grown, after Israel already severely weakened its proxies, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas within the Gaza Strip.

“Iran — it simply goes from unhealthy to worse as one other proxy domino drops, Hezbollah, now Assad. Could Tehran be subsequent? Could we see inside forces come up once more?” Ash mentioned in emailed feedback, questioning what Tehran can now do “to cease the rot” of its affect.