With three weeks left within the 2024 season, the race for the NFL’s Most Valuable Player is hitting its ultimate stretch. That means now is an effective time to try the main candidates heading into the previous couple of weeks.
We requested 14 analysts — Matt Bowen, Dan Graziano, Kalyn Kahler, Matt Miller, Dan Orlovsky, Jason Reid, Jordan Reid, Aaron Schatz, Ben Solak, Mike Tannenbaum, Lindsey Thiry, Seth Walder, Field Yates and myself — to vote on the highest gamers within the MVP race by 15 weeks. We then used these 14 units of rankings to compile our consensus top-five contenders.
The MVP award has gone to quarterbacks every of the previous 11 seasons, so it should not come as a shock that signal-callers cleared the path at this level. But the most important shock may be who’s in entrance this time round. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has reigned supreme atop our record this season, however Bills quarterback Josh Allen turned heads and swayed odds along with his season-high 362-yard efficiency in opposition to Detroit on Sunday. Two star quarterbacks and a dynamic working again spherical out our record.
Does the one non-QB on our record have what it takes to win the MVP award? Whose inventory is falling after 15 weeks of play? And whose inventory is rising? We reply these massive questions and take a look at the highest candidates, plus three gamers who simply missed the lower after Week 15.
All odds are through ESPN BET.
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One big question
Current odds: -900
2024 stats: 3,395 passing yards, 25 TDs, 5 INTs, 79.3 QBR (484 speeding yards, 11 TDs)
Allen has made a robust case for himself with consecutive 300-yard passing performances and 5 complete passing touchdowns over the previous two video games. The dual-threat quarterback additionally rushed for 150 complete yards and 5 touchdowns in that span, changing into the primary participant in NFL historical past to report a number of passing touchdowns and speeding scores in back-to-back video games.
The expectation was for Allen to take a step again after Buffalo traded Stefon Diggs to the Texans and free agent Gabe Davis signed with the Jaguars. But he hasn’t missed a beat and is on tempo for a profession low in interceptions. Allen has been a constant drive though starters Khalil Shakir and rookie Keon Coleman missed a mixed 5 video games in November. He leads the league in QBR and ranks prime 10 in passing yards, yards per try (8.0), sacks (13) and touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Current odds: +650
2024 stats: 3,580 passing yards, 34 TDs, 3 INTs, 76.1 QBR (743 speeding yards, 3 TDs)
It’s arduous to not embrace Jackson on the prime of the record due to how a lot the Ravens’ offense revolves round him. Sure, Derrick Henry‘s 1,474 speeding yards and 13 touchdowns are spectacular. But Jackson’s affect cannot be neglected as a result of defenses have to make use of an additional defender to account for his dynamic speeding skill.
He continues to destroy accusations that he is not an elite passer regardless of taking part in with out a premier receiver — 29-year-old Mark Andrews leads the workforce with eight landing catches. With 34 passing touchdowns, he trails solely Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (36). Jackson’s 5 passing touchdowns in Baltimore’s Week 15 win in opposition to the Giants tied a season excessive.
Two of the Ravens’ ultimate three video games come in opposition to AFC North opponents — Pittsburgh and Cleveland. He could have an excellent alternative to strengthen his MVP case if he may also help Baltimore move the 10-4 Steelers for the divisional title.
Current odds: +1500
2024 stats: 1,688 speeding yards, 11 TDs (276 receiving yards, 2 TDs)
MVP awards do not normally go to non-quarterbacks except one other place participant has an excellent season. That’s precisely what Barkley has finished up to now. His 1,688 speeding yards by 14 video games has him on tempo to develop into the ninth working again to achieve 2,000-plus yards in a season.
That might give him a authentic case for MVP. Adrian Peterson rushed for two,097 yards in 2012 and received the award that season. However, Derrick Henry’s 2,027 speeding yards in 2020 weren’t sufficient to win him the award.
The Eagles determined to have their offense revolve around Barkley after beginning the 12 months with a 2-2 report. That determination has resulted in a 10-game win streak and an NFL-best 186.2 speeding yards per recreation. Barkley’s 255 speeding yards in a Week 12 prime-time recreation against the Rams vaulted him into critical MVP consideration.
Current odds: +2200
2024 stats: 3,759 passing yards, 30 TDs, 10 INTs, 65.6 QBR (60 speeding yards)
Goff was as soon as thought of to be a throw-in for the trade that despatched Matthew Stafford to the Rams. Now, he is on the middle of one of the crucial thrilling offenses within the NFL. He ranks second in passing yards, fourth in landing passes and fifth in completions (314) and first-down passes (191). Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has maximized Goff’s skill by that includes extra play-action passing. The outcomes are clear: He has thrown for 1,396 yards on under-center play-action passes this season, 255 greater than the following closest quarterback, in accordance with NFL Next Gen Stats.
Although Goff misplaced the head-to-head battle with Allen this previous weekend, it is arduous to miss 494 passing yards, 5 passing touchdowns and no interceptions. Goff has an uphill battle, however he’ll have an opportunity to leapfrog the others on this race if he has a robust efficiency in opposition to the Packers within the season finale.
Current odds: +10000
2024 stats: 3,348 passing yards, 22 TDs, 11 INTs, 64.6 QBR (262 speeding yards, 1 TD)
Mahomes has not turned within the stats we’re accustomed to seeing. He in all probability will not end with 4,000 passing yards for the primary time since he turned a starter in 2018, and he has already taken essentially the most sacks of his profession (35).
But it is merely not attainable to have an MVP dialogue with out him. The Chiefs haven’t got an abundance of targets for Mahomes to depend on — large receiver Hollywood Brown hasn’t performed but due to a shoulder injury, Rashee Rice suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 4 and working again Isiah Pacheco missed 11 weeks with a broken leg. But that hasn’t stored Mahomes from prepared Kansas City to an NFL-best 13-1 report.
The Chiefs have massive video games arising in opposition to the Texans, Steelers and Browns, although a high ankle sprain may preserve him from statistically making a case for his third MVP. If he can work his magic and safe the highest seed within the AFC, he ought to warrant consideration.
Just missed
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (+8000)
Burrow leads the NFL in completions (361), passing yards (3,977) and passing touchdowns (36). He’s doing his half, however the Bengals’ protection has come up quick. At 6-8, Cincinnati is simply exterior the playoff bubble. No one would wish to face the Bengals if Burrow goes on a scorching streak and will get his workforce into the playoffs.
Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings (+10000)
Darnold has skilled a profession resurgence in Minnesota. He’s posting profession bests in virtually each statistical class, together with passing yards (3,530), completion proportion (67.6), landing passes (29) and QBR (60.2). He has the Vikings at 12-2 and tied with the Lions for the NFC North lead.
Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders (+40000)
It’s uncommon for a rookie to be within the working for MVP, however Daniels did not miss a beat when he landed with the Commanders. He has taken the NFL by storm along with his dual-threat skill. He’s prime 15 in passing yards (3,045), passing touchdowns (17) and completion proportion (70.5). And he is second amongst quarterbacks in speeding yards (656) and third in touchdowns (six).
Washington bought off to a 7-2 begin earlier than a three-game shedding streak knocked it again to actuality, but it surely ought to nonetheless safe a wild-card bid.
Also acquired top-10 votes: Steelers LB T.J. Watt, Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase, Bucs QB Baker Mayfield, Rams QB Matthew Stafford, Ravens RB Derrick Henry, Texans QB C.J. Stroud, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, Packers QB Jordan Love, Broncos CB Pat Surtain II, Rams WR Puka Nacua, Chargers QB Justin Herbert, Vikings WR Justin Jefferson, Texans WR Nico Collins, Cardinals QB Kyler Murray
Whose inventory is up after 15 weeks?
Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals: He has pulled away from the group and is now a authentic menace to be a triple crown winner. Only Steve Smith Sr. (2005) and Cooper Kupp (2021) have league-high season totals in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns over the previous 20 seasons. Chase’s surge began along with his three-touchdown, 264-yard efficiency in opposition to Baltimore in Week 10. In the previous 5 video games, he has grabbed an NFL-best eight touchdowns.
Whose inventory is down after 15 weeks?
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers: He had excessive expectations in his first season underneath coach Jim Harbaugh. But the Chargers have misplaced three of their previous 5 video games and are slipping to the No. 7 seed within the playoffs. Herbert has handed for greater than 200 yards in solely three of the previous 5 video games, and he had a pricey third-quarter interception in Week 15 that helped the Buccaneers safe a 40-17 win.
Is there any approach that Barkley can end robust sufficient to beat out the QBs?
No. Although Barkley is headed for a 2,000-yard speeding season, solely 4 of eight working backs who reached that mark received the MVP. The award has develop into slanted extra towards quarterbacks, as just one working again has received over the previous 15 years (Adrian Peterson in 2012). Even although the Eagles have relied on Barkley all through their 10-game win streak, the award will probably go to a quarterback.
