Iran Update, December 14, 2024
Alexandra Braverman, Johanna Moore, Siddhant Kishore, Ben Rezaei, Christina Harward, and Brian Carter
Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET
The Critical Threats Project (CTP) on the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) publish the Iran Update, which gives insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored actions that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and pursuits.
Click right here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli floor operations, and right here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of the continuing opposition offensive in Syria. These maps are up to date each day alongside the static maps current on this report.
We don’t report intimately on battle crimes as a result of these actions are well-covered in Western media and don’t straight have an effect on the navy operations we’re assessing and forecasting. We completely condemn violations of the legal guidelines of armed battle and the Geneva Conventions and crimes in opposition to humanity regardless that we don’t describe them in these stories.
Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) chief Abu Mohammed al Jolani is consolidating political and safety energy underneath HTS in a post-Assad Syrian authorities. HTS-led forces assumed management of Daraa City and the Nassib border crossing from the Southern Operations Room on December 14.[1] Jolani and Southern Operations Room leaders met on December 11 to debate coordination in navy and civil affairs.[2] It is notable that these Syrian teams have agreed to cooperate with HTS regardless of historic animosity with HTS’s predecessor and al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al Nusra within the mid-2010s.[3]
Jolani has continued to combine HTS allies into the interim Syrian Salvation Government, securing management over key civil and safety providers. Jolani met with Nour al Dink al Zink commander Ahmed Rizk on December 14 to debate the function of “revolutionary cadres” sooner or later Syrian authorities and the restructuring of the Syrian Defense Ministry.[4] Rizk and his group have lengthy fought alongside HTS in northwestern Syria. Syrian media reported on December 10 that the HTS-controlled interim authorities additionally plans to reorganize the Syrian Arab Army (SAA).[5] Reorganization throughout the Syrian military and Syrian Defense Ministry helps reconciliation with former regime components but in addition creates alternatives to nominate HTS loyalists and achieve management over the federal government paperwork.
The HTS-led interim authorities seems to be pursuing authorized recourse in opposition to former regime officers outdoors of a constitutionally-bound justice system. The interim Syrian Ministry of Information introduced on December 13 that the HTS-led interim authorities will maintain accountable former regime media officers who straight or not directly supported crimes in opposition to the Syrian folks.[6] It will not be clear if this course of will probably be undertaken by the interim Justice Ministry or whether or not the entity that does prosecute former regime officers will use HTS’s Sunni Sharia regulation or a extra secular authorized code. HTS has used a ”hybrid civil-Islamic courtroom construction” that makes use of HTS-approved Sunni Sharia regulation within the areas it controls in northwestern Syria.[7] HTS has not outlined judicial procedures it intends to make use of to prosecute former regime officers and will resolve to make use of a secular justice system. HTS lacks the formal authority to prosecute regime officers, although it’s mandatory to carry former regime officers accountable for crimes dedicated in opposition to the Syrian folks. That authority ought to relaxation with a global tribunal or a brand new Syrian authorities and a structure which have but to be established. Trials held underneath HTS’s Sunni Sharia fashion justice system might increase sectarian tensions no matter legit prices or a good trial.
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) Commander General Mazloum Abdi is trying to protect and unify the SDF’s Kurdish base because the group faces two existential threats within the wake of the autumn of the Assad regime.[8] Abdi argued that Kurdish unity was crucial to handle threats at the moment going through their group.[9] Arab communities in Deir ez Zor and Raqqa have begun defecting from the SDF and calling for an finish to SDF rule in Arab areas. The mixture of those occasions threaten to unravel the delicate Kurdish-Arab coalition that the United States helped set up. Turkey is concurrently threatening to destroy the SDF. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan threatened on December 13 to “remove” the SDF, Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), and People’s Defense Units (YPG).[10] Abdi added that unity and dialogue among the many Kurds is crucial for taking part within the growth of the brand new Syrian authorities. CTP-ISW assessed that Abdi intends to barter its function in a future Syrian authorities, more likely to stop additional unrest inside Arab populations and militias underneath the SDF.[11]
HTS chief Abu Mohammed al Jolani said on December 14 that Israel used Iran as a “pretext” to enter Syria however he added that HTS has “no intention of coming into into battle with Israel.”[12] IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi reiterated on December 14 that the IDF has no intention of interfering in Syrian home affairs or ”ruling” Syria.[13] Halevi added that the IDF is just working in Syria to make sure the security of Israel. An IDF firm commander within the 603rd Combat Engineering Battalion (seventh Armored Brigade) said that the IDF superior 10 kilometers into Syria. [14]
Some components in Iran are both alarmed or making an attempt to generate alarm over the standing of the Sayyida Zeinab shrine in Syria. This alarm will not be being mirrored within the Syrian info house presently. One Iranian media outlet revealed a video on December 13 allegedly exhibiting an HTS member reciting a poem praising Umar ibn al Khattab, the Sunni second Caliph, on the Sayyidah Zainab shrine.[15] The outlet said that studying this poem is ”provocative” and aimed toward ”boiling the blood” of Syrian Shia. Followers of Shia Islam consider that Umar is chargeable for the dying of Fatima, the mom of Zeinab. Approximately 720,000 customers learn this text, in response to the outlet. The similar Iranian outlet revealed an article on December 13 claiming that “takfiri terrorist teams“ in Syria are introducing new restrictions for Shiites to make pilgrimage the Sayyida Zeinab shrine and Sayyidah Ruqayya shrine in Damascus.[16] Iranian media has incessantly used the time period ”takfiri terrorists” to consult with HTS and ISIS, but it surely usually conflates different Syrian opposition teams with salafi-jihadists. The prevalence of those stories within the info house might stoke sectarian tensions, notably if the stories start to achieve traction in Arabic-language or Syrian media.
These alarmist stories in Iranian media usually are not being picked up within the Syrian info house presently. One native Syrian man who commonly visits the Sayyida Zeinab shrine gave an interview to a Syria-focused analyst claiming that HTS is dedicated to defending minority websites, together with the Sayyidah Zeynab shrine.[17] The Syrian denied current social media stories amplified within the Iranian media house that HTS entered the shrine violently and chanted provocative slogans, although he allowed that the mantra of ”Allahu Akbar” was seen as provocative by some people throughout the Shia group.[18] CTP-ISW has not noticed Syrian media reporting or recirculating stories of violence, provocation, or restriction on the Sayyida Zeinab shrine or the Sayyida Ruqayya shrine presently.
The Iranian regime doesn’t seem to have assumed a transparent technique for easy methods to method the HTS-led interim authorities in Syria, as exemplified by the contradicting stories concerning the security of Shia holy websites following the autumn of the Assad regime. Certain Iranian media shops have amplified stories of HTS fighters interfering with the Sayyida Zeinab shrine and the Sayyidah Ruqayya shrine, whereas different Iranian media stories claimed that HTS engaged respectfully throughout a go to to the shrine in current days.[19] The proven fact that the Iranian media will not be pursuing a transparent messaging marketing campaign in regards to the Shia holy websites in Syria could point out that the Iranian protection and political institution has not but determined how greatest to work together with the brand new HTS-led interim authorities. The fast tempo by which the Assad regime fell, ensuing within the lack of billions of {dollars} for the Iranian regime, has nearly definitely pressured Iran to re-evaluate its technique in regard to Syria and the area at giant.[20]
An Israeli Army Radio correspondent reported on December 14 that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) struck at the very least 20 former Syrian Arab Army (SAA) targets throughout Syria.[21] The IDF struck former SAA communications websites and ”digital warfare antennas“ in a number of areas together with Damascus, Suwayda, Maysaf, Latakia, and Tartus. The journalist reported that the IDF focused these websites to make sure the targets didn’t fall into the fingers of ”hostile components.” Syrian media reported that the IDF airstrikes in Damascus focused warehouses close to Mount Qasioun beforehand managed by the Syrian Republican Guard and SAA 4th Division and the SAA‘s al Dumayr airbase within the Damascus countryside.[22]
The prospects for Russia’s continued navy presence in Syria stay unclear as stories that Russia is evacuating its navy belongings from Syria proceed. Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) said on December 14 that “tons of” of Russian troopers can not attain Hmeimim Air Base from Homs Governorate out of concern that Russian forces will come underneath hearth from unspecified actors.[23] The GUR said that the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) Africa Corps arrived in Syria to guard Russian forces transferring in direction of Russia’s bases on the western coast and that Russian Colonel Dmitry Motrenko is negotiating with navy contingents in Syria from different unspecified states to be able to safe ensures of “immunity” for Russian troopers ready on the Tiyas Air Base west of Palmyra. The GUR additionally said that roughly 1,000 Russian personnel left Damascus on December 13 in a column heading in direction of the Port of Tartus and Hmeimim Air Base, and ISW noticed footage on December 13 of Russian navy convoys transferring from Damascus and different areas in southern Syria, seemingly in direction of the 2 important Russian bases.[24] Reuters reported on December 14 {that a} “Syrian safety official” stationed close to Hmeimim Air Base said that at the very least one cargo aircraft flew out of the bottom on December 14 certain for Libya.[25] Syrian navy and safety sources reportedly said that Russia is withdrawing some heavy tools and senior officers from the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) to Moscow however is at the moment not planning to completely pull out of the Port of Tartus or Hmeimim Air Base. A Russian milblogger posted photographs and photographs on December 14 purportedly exhibiting Russian navy belongings nonetheless working on the Russian helicopter base at Qamishli in northeastern Syria, and a Russian supply claimed on December 14 that Russian forces have withdrawn from their base in Kobani in northern Syria.[26]
The advanced nature of the interim Syrian authorities is probably going leading to conflicting stories about whether or not Russia is engaged in talks with Syrian opposition teams. Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) controls the Syrian interim authorities, however HTS and the interim authorities don’t but have full management over the disparate teams that helped overthrow the Assad regime. Russian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said on December 12 that Russia has established contacts with HTS.[27]Reuters reported on December 14 {that a} Russian supply said that discussions between Russia and the interim Syrian authorities are ongoing.[28] A “senior insurgent official near the brand new interim administration” instructed Reuters, nevertheless, that the difficulty of Russia’s navy presence in Syria and Russia’s earlier agreements with the Assad regime are “not underneath dialogue” and that talks at an unspecified time sooner or later will deal with this matter. The official reportedly said that the “Syrian folks may have the ultimate say.” Kremlin newswire TASS reported on December 13 that Mohammed Sabra, a Syrian politician who represented the Syrian opposition’s High Negotiations Committee on the 2016 Geneva peace talks on the Syrian Civil War, equally said that there needs to be a referendum sooner or later to permit the Syrian folks to approve any overseas navy presence in Syria.[29] It is unclear if Reuter’s “senior insurgent official near the brand new interim administration” who denied talks between Russia and the interim authorities is a member of HTS or one other Syrian opposition group.[30] It stays unclear if Russia is in touch with all of the Syrian opposition teams mandatory to ensure the short- and long-term security of its navy bases and choose opposition teams could also be unaware that Russia is in dialogue with different teams. Russian state media has notably not differentiated between totally different opposition teams when reporting on the scenario in Syria, probably as a part of efforts to current the interim authorities as extra united in order to extend the legitimacy of any agreements Russia reaches with one or a few of the teams.[31]
This will not be an exhaustive listing of all Russian bases in Syria. CTP-ISW will proceed to replace this map as extra info turns into obtainable in regards to the standing of Russian forces at Russian bases all through Syria.
The worldwide group has not but established a plan for easy methods to have interaction with the transitional authorities in Syria. The United States, UN, EU, Turkey, and varied Arab states met in Jordan on December 14 to debate supporting the political course of in Syria.[32] US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the overseas ministers of Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon, Iraq and Saudi Arabia agreed on unspecified ”joint ideas” for recognizing a future Syrian authorities.[33] Blinken confused that the transition course of have to be ”Syrian-led.” Blinken said that the US has engaged in “direct talks” with HTS.[34] The US designated HTS as a overseas terrorist group in 2018.[35] Blinken confused that the United States communicated a set of ”governing ideas” to HTS that features making certain human rights are upheld and the rejection of extremism.[36]
Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem is looking for to develop a working relationship with the HTS-led interim authorities in Damascus to be able to restore Hezbollah’s weapons provide route in Syria.[37] HTS chief Abu Mohammed al Jolani is unlikely to develop any relationship with Hezbollah. Hezbollah supported the Assad regime by deploying 1000’s of fighters and helped seized key Syrian cities, comparable to Qusayr and Aleppo.[38] Qassem gave a televised speech on December 14 the place he acknowledged that Hezbollah has misplaced its floor traces of communication (GLOC) from Iran by means of Syria and signaled his willingness to revive these GLOCs with the help of the brand new interim authorities in Syria.[39] Qassem mentioned that Hezbollah supported the Assad regime resulting from its “hostile place” in opposition to Israel and added that the interim authorities in Syria must also declare Israel its ”enemy.”[40] HTS chief Jolani mentioned that he has “no intention of coming into into battle with Israel.”[41]
Key Takeaways:
- HTS Consolidates Power in Syria: Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) chief Abu Mohammed al Jolani is consolidating political and safety energy underneath HTS in a post-Assad Syrian authorities. Jolani has continued to combine HTS allies into the interim Syrian Salvation Government, securing management over key civil and safety providers. The HTS-led interim authorities additionally seems to be pursuing authorized recourse in opposition to former regime officers outdoors of a constitutionally-bound justice system.
- Syrian Democratic Forces: Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) Commander General Mazloum Abdi is trying to protect and unify the SDF’s Kurdish base because the group faces two existential threats within the wake of the autumn of the Assad regime.
- Religious and Sectarian Tension in Syria: Some components in Iran are both alarmed or making an attempt to generate alarm over the standing of the Sayyida Zeinab shrine in Syria. This alarm will not be being mirrored within the Syrian info house presently. The Iranian regime doesn’t seem to have assumed a transparent technique for easy methods to method the HTS-led interim authorities in Syria, as exemplified by the contradicting stories concerning the security of Shia holy websites following the autumn of the Assad regime.
- Israel in Syria: An Israeli Army Radio correspondent reported on December 14 that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) struck at the very least 20 former Syrian Arab Army (SAA) targets throughout Syria. HTS chief Abu Mohammed al Jolani said on December 14 that Israel used Iran as a “pretext” to enter Syria however he added that HTS has “no intention of coming into into battle with Israel.”
- Russia in Syria: The prospects for Russia’s continued navy presence in Syria stay unclear as stories that Russia is evacuating its navy belongings from Syria proceed. Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) said on December 14 that “tons of” of Russian troopers can not attain Hmeimim Air Base from Homs Governorate out of concern that Russian forces will come underneath hearth from unspecified actors.
- Hezbollah in Syria: Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem is looking for to develop a working relationship with the HTS-led interim authorities in Damascus to be able to restore Hezbollah’s weapons provide route in Syria.
Gaza Strip:
Axis of Resistance targets:
- Erode the desire of the Israeli political institution and public to maintain clearing operations within the Gaza Strip
- Reestablish Hamas because the governing authority within the Gaza Strip
The IDF 162nd Division continued clearing ops within the northern Gaza Strip on December 14. Commercially obtainable satellite tv for pc imagery captured on December 14 reveals that the IDF expanded its clearing operations on the outskirts of Beit Lahia and in areas throughout the Jabalia refugee camp. The IDF has killed roughly 2,000 Palestinian militia fighters and detained 1,500 others because it started clearing operations in Jabalia in early October 2024, in response to an Israeli Army Radio correspondent.[42] Palestinian militias have killed 35 Israeli troopers in Jabalia throughout this time.[43]
The IDF performed an airstrike concentrating on a Palestinian militia cell in Gaza City on December 13.[44] The IDF mentioned that the Palestinian militia cell was working out of a faculty advanced in Gaza City.[45] The militia cell was planning on conducting terrorist assaults concentrating on Israeli forces within the Gaza Strip and contained in the Israeli territory within the “instant future,” in response to the IDF.[46] The IDF mentioned that it took steps to cut back civilian casualties earlier than the airstrike.[47]
The Palestinian Mujahedeen Movement fired rockets concentrating on Israeli troopers close to Gaza City on December 14.[48]
The IDF performed an airstrike concentrating on a municipality constructing in Deir al Balah within the central Gaza Strip and killed senior Hamas member Diab Ali al Jaru on December 14.[49] Jaru served because the chairman of the Hamas-run administrative committee within the central Gaza Strip and was the mayor of Deir al Balah.[50] The IDF said that Jaru was additionally part of Hamas’ navy wing and assisted Hamas fighters in attacking Israeli forces within the central Gaza Strip.[51] The IDF mentioned that it used precision weapons and extra intelligence to cut back civilian casualties earlier than the airstrike.[52] Palestinian medical personnel claimed that the airstrike killed ten Gazans, nevertheless.[53]
The Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) fired rockets concentrating on Ashkelon, southern Israel on December 13.[54] The IDF intercepted two rockets fired from the central Gaza Strip.[55] The IDF performed retaliatory airstrikes concentrating on the launch web site and destroyed it.[56] The IDF positioned PIJ rocket launchers 50 meters away from a humanitarian support storage facility. The airstrikes additionally killed an unspecified variety of Palestinian militia fighters, in response to the IDF. The IDF issued an evacuation order for areas northeast of Jabalia within the northern Gaza Strip earlier than conducting the airstrikes.[57] The order requested Gazans to right away evacuate to the IDF-designated humanitarian zone in Gaza City.[58] The IDF individually detected an unspecified projectile launched from the central Gaza Strip on December 14 that fell in an open space in southern Israel.[59]
US Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander General Michael Kurilla mentioned the area with the IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi in Israel on December 13.[60] Kurilla and Halevi mentioned regional threats and the continuing developments in Syria.[61] Both sides emphasised joint readiness in opposition to rising threats within the area.[62] The CENTCOM readout said that Kurilla additionally met with Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz and the commanders of the IDF Northern Command, and the IDF Air Force, throughout his go to to Israel.[63]
West Bank
Axis of Resistance targets:
- Establish the West Bank as a viable entrance in opposition to Israel
Palestinian Authority (PA) safety forces launched a counterterrorism operation within the northern West Bank on December 14 in response to elevated Palestinian militia assaults concentrating on PA infrastructure.[64] The PA-led operation is probably going designed to dismantle Palestinian militia infrastructure within the northern West Bank and restore at the very least a modicum of PA management there.[65] PA safety forces operated within the Jenin refugee camp and ”took management” of two unspecified areas within the camp.[66] PA safety forces additionally remoted two hospitals within the camp.[67] PIJ fighters responded by detonating 5 improvised explosive gadgets (IED) concentrating on PA safety forces in Jenin refugee camp. PIJ additionally known as upon Palestinians within the West Bank to reveal in opposition to the PA operations within the West Bank.[68] PA safety forces additionally engaged unspecified Palestinian militias within the Tulkarm refugee camp.[69]
Northern Israel and Lebanon
Lebanese Hezbollah targets:
- End Israeli operations within the Gaza Strip
- Survive the October 7 War as a succesful political and navy group with management over Lebanon
The IDF performed a drone strike concentrating on a automobile that killed a Hezbollah fighter within the al Hardali space in southeastern Lebanon, on December 14.[70]
The IDF Air Force performed a strike on December 14 concentrating on a loaded Hezbollah rocket launcher in southern Lebanon aimed toward Israeli territory.[71] Geolocated footage posted on December 14 confirmed the IDF conducting an airstrike close to Snaiber, south of Tyre, in western Lebanon.[72] The IDF reiterated its dedication to the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire. Hezbollah has not claimed an assault on Israel since December 2.[73]
Lebanese media reported on December 14 that the IDF demolished homes close to Yaroun, southern Lebanon.[74] The IDF is permitted to function in southern Lebanon till the tip of January 2025, in response to the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire.[75]
Iran and the Axis of Resistance
The Iran Update gives insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored actions overseas that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and pursuits. It additionally covers occasions and developments that have an effect on the soundness and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) on the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) gives these updates commonly based mostly on regional occasions.
CTP-ISW defines the “Axis of Resistance” because the unconventional alliance that Iran has cultivated within the Middle East because the Islamic Republic got here to energy in 1979. This transnational coalition is comprised of state, semi-state, and non-state actors that cooperate to safe their collective pursuits. Tehran considers itself to be each a part of the alliance and its chief. Iran furnishes these teams with various ranges of economic, navy, and political help in alternate for a point of affect or management over their actions. Some are conventional proxies which might be extremely aware of Iranian route, whereas others are companions over which Iran exerts extra restricted affect. Members of the Axis of Resistance are united by their grand strategic targets, which embody eroding and ultimately expelling American affect from the Middle East, destroying the Israeli state, or each. Pursuing these targets and supporting the Axis of Resistance to these ends have develop into cornerstones of Iranian regional technique.
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[16] https://www.tabnak dot ir/fa/information/1277573
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[20] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/in-video-appeal-to-iranian-citizens-netanyahu-says-one-day-iran-will-be-free/
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[61] https://x.com/idfonline/standing/1867956537697952108 ; https://x.com/centcom/standing/1867762009086808432?s=46&t=vAB6sPPgAElLnZFQUkyKmg
[62] https://x.com/idfonline/standing/1867956537697952108 ; https://x.com/centcom/standing/1867762009086808432?s=46&t=vAB6sPPgAElLnZFQUkyKmg
[63] https://x.com/centcom/standing/1867762009086808432?s=46&t=vAB6sPPgAElLnZFQUkyKmg
[64] https://x.com/GLZRadio/standing/1867863656827892007 ; https://x.com/GLZRadio/standing/1867937404759466273 ; https://t.me/moriahdoron/17505
[65] ttps://t.me/moriahdoron/17505
[66] https://x.com/GLZRadio/standing/1867863656827892007 ; https://t.me/sarayaps/18929
[67] https://x.com/GLZRadio/standing/1867863656827892007
[68] https://t.me/sarayajneen/1912
[69] https://x.com/GLZRadio/standing/1867937404759466273
[70] https://x.com/GLZRadio/standing/1867894350967140525 ; https://x.com/Me1Ray/standing/1867902769522413993
[71] https://x.com/idfonline/standing/1867868149791785300
[72] https://x.com/Me1Ray/standing/1867888872652513432 ;
[73] https://t.me/mmirleb/9639
[74] https://x.com/AlakhbarNews/standing/1867935653675065473
[75] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/full-text-the-israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-deal/
