Many of the WNBA’s greatest stars will battle over the following two months in Unrivaled’s inaugural season of 3-on-3 basketball. But earlier than the likes of former MVP Breanna Stewart, fellow 2024 All-WNBA first-team picks Napheesa Collier and Alyssa Thomas, in addition to Brittney Griner and Sabrina Ionescu assist tip off the brand new league Friday, let’s break down the rosters of the six groups vying to deliver dwelling the primary championship on March 17.
Since we have by no means seen video games performed using Unrivaled’s rules, which embody an 18-second shot clock and a goal rating, amongst different notable adjustments from the WNBA, it is unattainable to say precisely how issues will play out. Still, we are able to take a look at the expertise on every roster utilizing my projections for the way these gamers will carry out within the WNBA throughout the upcoming 2025 marketing campaign.
I’ve used these projections, based mostly on manufacturing over the previous three WNBA seasons, to rank all six groups in offensive and defensive score in addition to how typically we may anticipate them to win based mostly on these scores. Let’s have a look, beginning with one staff that ranks properly forward of the remaining.
1. Lunar Owls BC
.604 anticipated win share
Roster: Shakira Austin, Napheesa Collier, Skylar Diggins-Smith, Allisha Gray, Courtney Williams, Cameron Brink (IR)
Collier, who co-founded the league with Stewart, is on a roster stacked on the defensive finish. Although the Lunar Owls venture under common on offense, their estimated defensive score is greater than 4 factors per 100 possessions higher than another staff.
Obviously, that begins with Collier, the WNBA’s Defensive Player of the Year in 2024. Thanks to excessive charges of blocks, steals and defensive rebounds, Austin has the second-best defensive projection for any participant within the Unrivaled pool behind Collier. And all three Lunar Owls guards fee as above-average defenders for his or her place, although none has made an All-Defensive staff.
One query my projections cannot reply is how enjoying with simply 5 gamers all season would possibly have an effect on the Lunar Owls, who shall be with out Brink, the 2024 No. 2 draft choose, after a June ACL tear. Another minor damage will go away the Lunar Owls perilously skinny. Still, they’re clear favorites by this methodology.
2. Phantom BC
.540 anticipated win share
Roster: Natasha Cloud, Brittney Griner, Sabrina Ionescu, Marina Mabrey, Satou Sabally, Katie Lou Samuelson
The second-ranked staff, against this, is all offense. Phantom has the second-worst defensive projection for any staff however the top-rated offense by a large margin. That begins with Ionescu, the highest level guard enjoying in Unrivaled. Ionescu has built-in chemistry with Sabally, her teammate for 3 years at Oregon. The final time the 2 All-WNBA picks performed collectively, the Ducks led the nation in HerHoopStats offensive rating in 2018-19 and 2019-20.
As an inside counterweight, Phantom boasts Griner, who shot a career-high 58% from the sphere in 2024. In a 3-on-3 format the place double-teaming shall be almost unattainable, Griner — who recorded essentially the most post-ups within the WNBA final season, per Second Spectrum monitoring — could possibly be troublesome to cease.
There’s extra firepower coming off the bench within the type of Mabrey, who shot 38% on 3-pointers final season whereas rating within the WNBA’s prime 10 in makes — not less than as soon as Mabrey returns from a calf injury that will sideline her for not less than the primary two weeks. And three-time All-Defensive choose Cloud offers Phantom a stronger defensive possibility on the perimeter.
3. Vinyl BC
.520 anticipated win share
Roster: Aliyah Boston, Rae Burrell, Jordin Canada, Dearica Hamby, Rhyne Howard, Arike Ogunbowale
In phrases of pure scoring, it is laborious to beat Vinyl, which boasts three of the WNBA’s prime 16 scorers in 2024 between Hamby (17.3 PPG), Howard (17.3) and Ogunbowale (22.2), in addition to a fourth succesful scorer in Boston (14.0). Phantom is the one different staff that may match these figures.
The process for Vinyl coach Teresa Weatherspoon shall be ensuring Vinyl’s scorers are built-in collectively moderately than taking activates offense. Canada, who averaged 5.8 APG throughout an injury-plagued 2024 marketing campaign, shall be key to that process. But Canada, a 24% profession 3-point shooter, should shoot extra just like the 33% she hit in 2023 for opponents to respect her off the ball.
If Weatherspoon can handle that, there is a good steadiness of inside and perimeter energy on Vinyl’s roster.
4. Mist BC
.488 anticipated win share
Roster: DiJonai Carrington, Aaliyah Edwards, Rickea Jackson, Jewell Loyd, Breanna Stewart, Courtney Vandersloot
Stewart does not boast a roster that tasks fairly in addition to her co-founder regardless of having one of the best particular person projection for any participant. In half, Mist should shoot significantly better than final season, when its gamers mixed to shoot 28.5% on 3s within the WNBA. No different Unrivaled staff was under 32% as a gaggle. Only Jackson (35%) beat that mark for Mist in 2024.
On the plus aspect, Mist’s gamers have been far more correct prior to now, capturing 34% profession on 3s — higher than two different groups. Whether that regression kicks in shall be essential for a staff that ought to boast sturdy chemistry. Stewart performed the previous two seasons with Vandersloot with the New York Liberty and the remainder of her WNBA profession with Loyd for the Seattle Storm, profitable championships in each stops.
The defensive projections for Mist are sturdy, and it may lock down opponents with its staff perimeter stopper Carrington with Loyd and Stewart, the latter a six-time All-Defensive choose. Given that potential, I’d wager on Mist outperforming this projection.
5. Laces BC
.430 anticipated win share
Roster: Stefanie Dolson, Tiffany Hayes, Kate Martin, Kayla McBride, Alyssa Thomas, Jackie Young
There’s lots to love about how the Laces’ roster is constructed. It places enviable capturing — 39% from 3 final season, 37% profession — round one of many WNBA’s greatest non-shooters in Thomas, who completed second in MVP voting in 2023.
Thomas’ capacity to play level middle permits the Laces to staff her with McBride and Young in a beginning lineup with ample shot creation and playmaking. Hayes, final season’s Sixth Player of the Year, and Dolson are stable reserves.
From a statistical standpoint, the Laces’ lack of rim safety is an enormous disadvantage. Their roster mixed to dam simply 63 pictures final season, fewer than half the 140 by Lunar Owls’ 5 wholesome gamers. It stays to be seen how necessary defending the rim shall be in a 3-on-3 setting in comparison with Thomas’ capacity to change on protection.
6. Rose BC
.418 anticipated win share
Roster: Kahleah Copper, Chelsea Gray, Lexie Hull, Angel Reese, Azura Stevens, Brittney Sykes
The Rose roster shall be an attention-grabbing take a look at case for the worth of effectivity within the 3-on-3 recreation. Copper’s capacity to create her personal shot, Gray’s playmaking and Reese’s offensive rebounding are all elite, however none scored with above-average effectivity throughout the 2024 WNBA marketing campaign. (Gray was extremely environment friendly in 2022 and 2023.)
Thanks partially to Hull’s scorching post-Olympics capturing, the Laces had been stable from past the arc final season. Inside it, their gamers mixed to shoot simply 45%. No different Unrivaled staff was collectively under 48%. With a shorter shot clock, nevertheless, the midrange shotmaking of Copper and Gray may change into extra comparatively precious. And it will likely be fascinating to see how Reese’s record-setting offensive rebounding interprets to Unrivaled.
