Women’s school basketball midseason check-in: Which picks are we standing by — or redoing?

Two months down, two to go — and the street to the 2025 ladies’s Final Four in Tampa is quick approaching.

The 2024-25 ladies’s school basketball season has had loads of sudden twists. Unlike final yr when South Carolina was the favourite on its solution to an undefeated season, there isn’t a clear nationwide title front-runner. Notre Dame‘s Hannah Hidalgo has emerged as the favourite for Player of the Year after we predicted it being a two-player race between USC‘s JuJu Watkins and UConn‘s Paige Bueckers within the preseason.

And that is all topic to alter as league competitors progresses. Some intriguing video games await in January — Thursday alone has 4 Top 25 matchups — and the second half of the season might carry much more wrinkles.

ESPN’s ladies’s school basketball specialists break down this season’s largest surprises and disappointments, what we received improper in November, they usually replace their predictions on convention champions, end-of-season awards, Final Four groups and extra.

Which group, participant or pattern has been the largest shock to this point?

Michael Voepel: Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets have been picked tenth within the ACC preseason ballot, however they enter Thursday’s recreation vs. Virginia Tech at 15-0 general and 3-0 within the league. Freshman Dani Carnegie is averaging 16.0 factors and taking pictures 42.1% from 3-point vary. She and juniors Kara Dunn and Tonie Morgan are the highest backcourt gamers on a guard-heavy group that averages 9.4 3-pointers per recreation.

Nell Fortner is in her sixth season as Yellow Jackets coach and made NCAA match appearances in 2021 and 2022. Georgia Tech was a mixed 30-33 the previous two seasons. But the Jackets are buzzing now, with two large exams on the street looming: at Louisville on Sunday and at Notre Dame on Jan. 16.

Charlie Creme: Vanderbilt. In the preseason we have been requested who might be this yr’s NC State or Oregon State, groups that went from unranked to a deep 2024 NCAA match run. If Georgia Tech is that this yr’s Wolfpack, Vanderbilt might be 2025’s model of the Beavers.

After taking the Commodores to their first NCAA match since 2014, Shea Ralph has Vanderbilt off to a 14-2 begin. Without a lot fanfare, sophomore Khamil Pierre (22.8 PPG) and freshman Mikayla Blakes (20.6 PPG) are the highest scoring duo within the nation and are the highest defenders on a group that leads the nation in steals. The Commodores suffered a humbling house loss to Kentucky on Sunday, and the upcoming schedule with Ole Miss, LSU and Tennessee is difficult, however they seem like an NCAA match group that would probably threaten for a top-four seed.

Alexa Philippou: It was powerful to know what to anticipate from Kim Caldwell’s first yr at Tennessee and whether or not her unorthodox fashion of play — fast-paced with full-court strain, 3-point photographs galore and hockey-esque line modifications — would translate to the Power 4 and SEC. The Lady Vols did not play the strongest nonconference schedule, and the likes of South Carolina, Texas and LSU loom. But it is arduous to argue with the outcomes over Caldwell’s first 14 video games: They gained their first 13 contests earlier than dropping a heartbreaker Sunday to then-No. 9 Oklahoma in Knoxville, lacking a go-ahead shot with underneath 10 seconds to play and falling by one.

With the best way Caldwell has her group enjoying and the way she’s recruiting, the Lady Vols trustworthy should be thrilled with what’s brewing in Knoxville even when Tennessee does not find yourself a legit SEC contender this yr. Plus, this model of basketball is undeniably entertaining to observe.

What’s one thing you believed within the preseason that you simply have been improper about?

Philippou: Coming off a first-round NCAA match exit, Maryland was No. 23 in my preseason ballot. Every week into 2025, the Terps are ranked eighth within the nation at 14-1 and are wanting like an actual risk within the Big Ten and nationally. With 10 new gamers (together with seven transfers), it could have been comprehensible if it took just a few months for Brenda Frese’s squad to coalesce. That has been removed from the case. The Terps beat Duke three video games into the season and pair a high-powered offense (with Rutgers switch Kaylene Smikle main the best way) with a stauncher protection than we have seen lately in College Park.

Maryland was inside attain of beating No. 4 USC on Wednesday earlier than the Trojans surged down the stretch to ship the primary lack of the Terps’ season. But the outing confirmed Frese’s squad is true there with a Final Four and nationwide title contender. Maryland has some high quality exams remaining within the Big Ten, plus a impartial web site nonconference duel in opposition to Texas within the Coretta Scott King Classic.

Voepel: That Iowa State was the most effective group within the Big 12. That hasn’t been the case to this point. The Cyclones are 11-6 general and 2-2 within the league, profitable 90-83 Wednesday at Arizona State. But they have been have been clobbered by a mixed 73 factors by South Carolina and UConn in nonconference video games. I believed the Cyclones have been going to construct on final yr’s 21-12 season led by freshmen Audi Crooks and Addy Brown. Both are nonetheless producing as sophomores; Crooks is averaging 23.0 PPG and seven.8 RPG, and Brown 13.6 and seven.5. But as a group, Iowa State hasn’t but taken the step ahead many anticipated. Iowa State nonetheless has time to maneuver up the Big 12 ladder, however for now the Cyclones aren’t within the high quarter of the 16-team league.

Creme: I believed it could take a while, maybe as a lot as the primary couple months of the season, for Hidalgo and Olivia Miles to develop a chemistry at Notre Dame and work out one of the best ways to maximise one another’s skills. But of their first recreation collectively, albeit in opposition to an overmatched Mercyhurst, Hidalgo had 19 factors, 9 rebounds and 6 steals. Miles had a triple-double. The duo was off and operating from the beginning and have not been slowed exterior of the loss to Utah within the Cayman Islands. That Notre Dame was capable of beat USC, UConn and Texas all earlier than closing exams started is a testomony to how seamlessly the 2 stars got here collectively. Combined they’re averaging 42.8 factors, 12.9 rebounds and 10.9 assists. They are every committing fewer than three turnovers per recreation and, most remarkably, are each taking pictures above 45% from 3-point vary.

Which group or participant has been the largest disappointment?

Kendra Andrews: Iowa State was the No. 8 group within the preseason ballot; now it’s unranked. The largest letdown: a shocking loss to in-state rival Northern Iowa, a recreation wherein Iowa State was outscored 31-7 at one level. The Cyclones continued to endure by a troublesome stretch on the finish of the calendar yr, and after hopes of constructing some momentum in a win in opposition to Kansas, picked up one other Big 12 loss to Utah. There is time for them to work their approach out of this funk, however the Cyclones have been a letdown.

Creme: UConn hasn’t gotten as a lot out of Kaitlyn Chen as anticipated. The Huskies’ depth was a part of the explanation I picked UConn as my nationwide champion within the preseason. Chen coming over from Princeton as a grad switch was a giant a part of the depth. Her level guard abilities coupled together with her capability to attain would ease the burden on the youthful guards, give Azzi Fudd time to play herself again to full well being and permit Bueckers to play off the ball extra.

That influence hasn’t been there. UConn continues to be so reliant on Bueckers and freshman Sarah Strong partially as a result of Chen is averaging a mere 6.1 factors per recreation and taking fewer than 5 photographs a contest. Chen wasn’t anticipated to provide like she did at Princeton the place she averaged 16.0 factors and was named Ivy League Player of the Year, but when the Huskies will want extra from Chen if they’re to contend for a nationwide title.

Philippou: Stanford. A yr faraway from incomes a No. 2 seed within the NCAA match, Charlie has the Cardinal as the ultimate group among the many first 4 out in his latest Bracketology. Lots has occurred since April: Tara VanDerveer retired, Cameron Brink graduated, Kiki Iriafen transferred and this system formally moved to the ACC. But if the Cardinal have been to overlook the NCAA match, it could be the primary time since 1987 they did not play within the Big Dance. Stanford’s 0-3 document within the ACC marks its worst begin to convention play since VanDerveer’s first season on the Farm

Elsewhere within the ACC, it could be good to see Florida State choose up steam and reap the benefits of Ta’Niya Latson‘s good season.

What group is your choose proper now to win the 2025 NCAA title?

Voepel: South Carolina, leaning on its depth and expertise. Ten gamers have been averaging a minimum of 16 minutes per recreation; that is all the way down to 9 now with junior ahead Ashlyn Watkins out with a season-ending ACL tear. Still, the Gamecocks aren’t depending on anyone participant for scoring, rebounding or assists. That’s a part of what makes them so arduous to play.

Watkins led the group in blocked photographs (1.9 per recreation), so others should step ahead as rim protectors. That can embody beginning forwards Sania Feagin (1.1 BPG) and Chloe Kitts and key freshman reserve Joyce Edwards. Junior Maryam Dauda, a switch from Arkansas, and freshman Adhel Tac each may get extra enjoying time as nicely. Watkins’ damage will make it a harder activity for South Carolina to repeat. But Dawn Staley nonetheless has a variety of choices within the submit.

Creme: Despite the lack of Watkins, I’m going with the Gamecocks to repeat. Losing Watkins’ size and athleticism is a giant blow, particularly on protection, nevertheless it’s arduous to miss the actual fact this group has been there earlier than and has championship pedigree. Edwards, the one Gamecock who hasn’t had that postseason expertise, has been productive in her first yr. With Watkins out, count on Edwards’ influence to develop. She would be the key to South Carolina surviving the gauntlet that’s the higher echelon of the SEC and the strain of the NCAA match.

Andrews: Notre Dame goes to grab the title. Nonconference wins over UConn and USC are a greater illustration of what the Irish are able to than the losses to Utah and TCU. Hidalgo is the main contender for participant of the yr, whereas Miles is taking pictures the ball higher than she ever has earlier than. She’s hitting 47.8% on 3-pointers this season after taking pictures 22.8% from the arc in 2022-23 earlier than an damage sidelined her all of final season. Together, Hidalgo and Miles have fashioned probably the most dynamic backcourt in school basketball. And now, with Maddy Westbeld making her extremely anticipated return, the Irish are constructing out extra depth and have extra of a veteran presence on the courtroom.

Philippou: UCLA. The Bruins’ demolishment of South Carolina in November does not seem like it was a one-off. They’re nonetheless undefeated and are our favorites to win the Big Ten. They are the deepest and most full contender with Lauren Betts enjoying like a first-team All-American, Kiki Rice having a profession yr and so many different sturdy complementary items round them. They have depth and flexibility, taking pictures and measurement and may trigger an assortment of issues at each ends of the courtroom. It’s tough to establish any weaknesses with what is definitely Cori Close’s strongest group since she arrived in Westwood, one which, at minimal, is poised to make this system’s first NCAA Final Four.

What’s the one factor that may have probably the most influence on how the season ends in April?

Creme: Three video games — South Carolina at Texas on Jan. 12, Texas at South Carolina on Feb. 9 and UConn at South Carolina on Feb. 16 — will decide the No. 1 seeds. The Huskies completely should win in Columbia if they’re to succeed in the highest line. The two video games between the Longhorns and Gamecocks will seemingly determine the SEC title and will decide which group is the favourite for the nationwide championship. A break up would do the convention some good as a result of every would nonetheless be set as much as be a potential high seed, particularly if UCLA knocks off USC twice within the Big Ten.

Philippou: Health. Losing Watkins is a blow to South Carolina’s frontcourt depth. Teams similar to Notre Dame and UConn have had poor damage luck in latest seasons — the Fighting Irish have been trending in the precise route this yr, whereas Fudd and Bueckers have missed some video games with knee sprains. No one desires to see accidents for any group, however they’re an unlucky a part of the sport and will influence the title race.

Voepel: The Final Four matchups. Unless a group is clearly higher than the sphere, it is very tough to get these final two victories for a title. Even if a group is the most effective — as was the case with South Carolina in 2023 — issues can cease them. After falling in two nationwide championship video games in a row, Iowa’s Caitlin Clark mentioned, “These issues are actually arduous to win.” She is true: Iowa knocked off giants South Carolina and UConn in back-to-back Final Fours, however these wins have been within the semifinals.

Part of the explanation I’m sticking with the Gamecocks to repeat is how I feel they’ll deal with the Final Four strain after dealing with a lot of it lately. UConn has handled it greater than any program. No one on Notre Dame’s roster has been to the Final Four, however coach Niele Ivey has numerous expertise at that degree.

As for among the different potential No. 1 seeds, Texas’ final Final Four was 2003, USC’s was 1986 and UCLA’s was within the pre-NCAA period (the Bruins gained the 1978 AIAW title). If any of those groups attain Tampa, it could be higher for them to play one other less-experienced program within the semifinals.

Predictions

Which group will win the ACC?

Kendra Andrews: Notre Dame
Katie Barnes: Notre Dame
Charlie Creme: Notre Dame
Sean Hurd: Notre Dame
Alexa Philippou: Notre Dame
Michael Voepel: Notre Dame

Which group will win the Big Ten?

Andrews: UCLA
Barnes: UCLA
Creme: UCLA
Hurd: USC
Philippou: UCLA
Voepel: UCLA

Which group will win the Big 12?

Andrews: TCU
Barnes: Kansas State
Creme: Kansas State
Hurd: Kansas State
Philippou: Kansas State
Voepel: Kansas State

Which group will win the SEC?

Andrews: South Carolina
Barnes: South Carolina
Creme: South Carolina
Hurd: South Carolina
Philippou: South Carolina
Voepel: South Carolina

Which groups will attain the Final Four?

Andrews: South Carolina, UCLA, Notre Dame, USC
Barnes: South Carolina, Notre Dame, USC, UConn
Creme: South Carolina, UCLA, Notre Dame, USC
Hurd: South Carolina, Notre Dame, UCLA, USC
Philippou: UCLA, Notre Dame, UConn, South Carolina
Voepel: South Carolina, Notre Dame, UCLA, Texas

Which group will win the NCAA title?

Andrews: Notre Dame over South Carolina
Barnes: Notre Dame over South Carolina
Creme: South Carolina over Notre Dame
Hurd: South Carolina over UCLA
Philippou: UCLA over Notre Dame
Voepel: South Carolina over UCLA

Who would be the nationwide participant of the yr?

Andrews: Hannah Hidalgo, Notre Dame
Barnes: Hannah Hidalgo, Notre Dame
Creme: Hannah Hidalgo, Notre Dame
Hurd: Hannah Hidalgo, Notre Dame
Philippou: Hannah Hidalgo, Notre Dame
Voepel: Hannah Hidalgo, Notre Dame

Who would be the freshman of the yr?

Andrews: Sarah Strong, UConn
Barnes: Sarah Strong, UConn
Creme: Sarah Strong, UConn
Hurd: Sarah Strong, UConn
Philippou: Sarah Strong, UConn
Voepel: Sarah Strong, UConn

Who will win coach of the yr?

Andrews: Niele Ivey, Notre Dame
Barnes: Niele Ivey, Notre Dame
Creme: Niele Ivey, Notre Dame
Hurd: Niele Ivey, Notre Dame
Philippou: Cori Close, UCLA
Voepel: Niele Ivey, Notre Dame

Which gamers will make the All-America first group?

Andrews: JuJu Watkins, USC; Hannah Hidalgo, Notre Dame; Paige Bueckers, UConn; Ta’Niya Latson, Florida State

Barnes: JuJu Watkins, USC; Hannah Hidalgo, Notre Dame; Paige Bueckers, UConn; Lauren Betts, UCLA; Aneesah Morrow, LSU

Creme: JuJu Watkins, USC; Hannah Hidalgo, Notre Dame; Lauren Betts, UCLA; Paige Bueckers, UConn, Ta’Niya Latson, Florida State

Hurd: Hannah Hidalgo, Notre Dame; Paige Bueckers, UConn; JuJu Watkins, USC; Lauren Betts, UCLA; Aneesah Morrow, LSU

Philippou: Lauren Betts, UCLA; Paige Bueckers, UConn; Hannah Hidalgo, Notre Dame; Ta’Niya Latson, Florida State; JuJu Watkins, USC

Voepel: Hannah Hidalgo, Notre Dame; JuJu Watkins, USC; Lauren Betts, UCLA; Paige Bueckers, UConn; Aneesah Morrow, LSU